South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 10th February)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• More of the same Thurs, easing Fri
• New S/SE swell reaching MNC very late Fri, showing elsewhere Sat but with with freshening N'ly winds
• Period of gusty S'ly winds settling in from Sunday
• Strong SE thru' E/SE groundswells Tues thru' Sun

Recap: Fresh Southerly quadrant winds have dominated the last few days, blowing out exposed beaches but offering workable options at locations offering shelter. Swell direction has gone very south, meaning SE Qld beaches and points have become quite small though south facing beaches have seen occasional 2ft+ sets yesterday, increasing a little today (see D’Bah below, from a short time ago). South of the border, wave heights have slowly increased from 3ft to 4ft at south facing beaches though most locations have been bumpy and it’s been smaller elsewhere. A small trade swell is also filling in the mix.

Fun Wednesday evening options at D'Bah

This week (Feb 11 - 12)

More of the same is expected on Thursday, with transitory fetches through the southern Tasman Sea maintaining 3-4ft sets at south swell magnets south of Byron on Thursday, much smaller elsewhere.

SE Qld should pick up a small combo of S’ly swell and building SE windswell from a ridge through the Coral Sea, but I doubt we’ll see much more than a slow 2ft at the outer Gold Coast points (tiny conditions will persist across inner points). 

Local conditions should improve across the Mid North Coast on Thursday as the Coral Sea ridge relaxes wind speeds, though we’ll still be at risk of moderate to fresh S/SE winds north from Yamba, particularly the northern Gold Coast and most of the Sunshine Coast. Pockets of lighter SW winds are possible early in a few spots though.

Friday’s looking clean early morning with light winds, ahead of a developing N/NE breeze through the day (earlier in the south than in the north) that’ll bump up the open beaches into the afternoon. Expect size to ease back a little from Thursday.

Sometime in the afternoon, the leading edge of a new S/SE groundswell is expected to reach the Mid North Coast, having been generated by an active, stationary low pressure system positioned off the southern end of New Zealand’s South Island over the last few days. 

I’ve slightly recalculated the size and timing on this swell - it’s now due to peak overnight and into early Saturday morning, as the fetch developed a little later than previously modeled, and the strongest winds were a touch more to the south-east (i.e. further away, thus having to travel further). Therefore, we may not see an appreciable kick in size until very late in the day. Locations north from Coffs may not see any new swell before the sun goes down.

Size expectations from this new swell are in the 3-4ft range at south swell magnets south of Byron (once it arrives) but I’ll keep an eye on Southern NSW’s trends (as they’ll provide an early heads up) and will comment below as information comes to hand.

Also, just to recap on the tropical depression near Fiji earlier this week (TD09F) - it never reached tropical cyclone strength, and is moving too quickly southwards to generate any useful swell, because the track is perpendicular through our swell window. So, I’m not expecting anything notable from this system. 

This weekend (Feb 13 - 14)

Unfortunately, Saturday is looking to be wind affected, as northerly winds freshen ahead of a southerly change due on Sunday.

This is a shame as our S/SE tending SE groundswell is expected to reach a peak, offering inconsistent 3-4ft+ sets at south facing beaches south of Byron. The swell should be int he water early morning, and this will be your best time to surf as we should see a brief window of lighter NW winds, however you’ll be best off anticipating a deterioration from the get-go. There’ll also be a wobble through the lineup from overnight N’ly winds, which will also have generated some local windswell.

SE Qld should see inconsistent 2-3ft sets at exposed northern ends, with a similar early window of light NW winds preceding the northerly flow. The outer points will probably be a write-off with these conditions. 

So on the whole, I’m not expecting this swell to provide anything amazing in the surf department.

The S’ly change is due into Port Macquarie around midnight, Yamba around dawn and the border by early afternoon, with moderate N’ly winds overnight tending variable for an hour or so before the wind swings. These overnight N’ly winds should generate some peaky windswell for north-facing locations, including the southern Gold Coast which may pick up some 1-2ft sets, but it won’t be terribly flash. 

Some model guidance suggests a small low embedded along the trough line could enhance winds to 30-40kts for a brief period on Sunday, so you’ll need to be prepared for blustery conditions. We’ll see building southerly windswell in the wake of the change, reaching 4-5ft across Northern NSW by the afternoon though quality will be low, and protected spots will be much smaller. Depending on the timing of the change (any delay will reduce surf potential), we may see a small new swell build across the outer Gold Coast points, which is one of only a few regions that will enjoy these conditions - but only as long as there is swell.

Next week (Feb 15 onwards)

Lots to look forward to next week.

A broad trough with embedded lows across the western Tasman Sea on Sunday will maintain gusty S/SE winds through Monday, delivering windy though punchy surf for the start of the week. At this stage it’s not looking terribly flash, around 4-5ft at exposed beaches south of the border, though outer SE Qld points may pick up some 2-3ft sets if we’re lucky. I’ll take a closer look on Friday.

Looking further afield, and a small tropical depression near Fiji later this week is modeled to move southwards on Friday, before slowly setting up camp north of New Zealand over the weekend and evolving to a fully fledged subtropical low by Monday. 

Some modeling suggests this low will merge with the aforementioned broad troughy feature across the western Tasman Sea, forming a large, multi-centered low pressure system across the greater Tasman through the middle of next week.

The long and short of it is that this pattern will probably result in an extended period of strong, sizeable swells from the E/SE thru’ SE, building in size around Tuesday and probably remaining quite elevated through into next Saturday or maybe Sunday. 

How big? Early indications are for at least one day in the 6-8ft range in Northern NSW (smaller in SE Qld) though it’s quite plausible there’ll be several. And, with the engine room to these swells being generally positioned across the eastern half of the basin, local winds stand a better chance of being favourably light towards the latter part of the week - though the first half will remain windy as per Monday’s outlook, thus favouring points and sheltered locations.

All in all, an exciting time ahead for surfers right across the East Coast; this pattern should favour almost everywhere.

More on this in Friday’s update.