Rinse and repeat out of the east: but bigger
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 3rd February)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Solid trade swells early Thurs
- Large E'ly swell filling in late Thurs, holding Fri/Sat, easing in the north from Sun but holding across southern regions
- Generally light variable winds and sea breezes most days
- Average S/SE winds and swells for next week, though still fun early Mon as the E'ly swell eases
- Small/mod (distant) cyclone swell possible late next week
Recap: E’ly trade swells built strongly to 4-5ft across most exposed coasts on Tuesday, with some locations pushing close to 6ft at times. Winds were light in the morning, with afternoon sea breezes. Freshening S’ly winds today accompanied a similar sized swell with slightly more uniformity to the swell lines - appearing more as a groundswell, but the consistency of a fully developed trade swell.
Wednesday morning lines at Kirra
Long Wednesday runners at Byron
Superbank looking a treat this arvo
This week (Feb 4 - 5)
Our focus is firmly fixed to the Northern Tasman Sea, where an established trade flow over the last few days is being supercharged by two tropical cyclones: ex-TC Ana (now NE of New Zealand) and TC Lucas (tracking over New Caledonia).
TC Lucas is our main focus however we’re not looking to see new energy from this system until very late Thursday and into Friday, ahead of a broad plateau in size over the weekend. As such, Thursday morning will see a continuation of fully developed trade swell from the pre-existing ridge across the Northern Tasman Sea.
As such, expect open beaches to maintain 4-5ft sets on Thursday, ahead of a very late pulse up into the 6ft+ range, that should persist through Friday (as usual, it’ll be smaller running down the points, and at sheltered spots). Some bigger sets are possible on Friday though I’m not quite confident to round things out a steady eight feet.
As for conditions, a weak ridge will persist across the coast both days, affecting SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. All regions should see early light offshore winds; the afternoon breeze should tend SE across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, but south from Ballina it may veer E’ly through NE (across the lower Mid North Coast).
This weekend (Feb 6 - 7)
TC Lucas will remain slow moving south of New Caledonia for a few days. Current model guidance suggests a reintensification overnight Thursday into Friday morning (see below), aimed perfectly within our swell window.
Additionally, the meandering nature of TC Lucas on an already-active sea state (generated by the Northern Tasman Sea ridge, with further enhancement from ex-TC Ana) means wave heights will end up being higher than that of a typical migratory low or front displaying the same fetch characteristics. The good news is that there’ll be several embedded pulses, one on Saturday and another on Sunday.
So, ordinarily I’d expect 4-6ft surf from a system of this size, in this neck of the woods, but given the above detail, we’re probably looking exposed beaches pushing 6-8ft, with smaller surf running down the points.
If anything, the low will tilt slightly to the south on Friday into Saturday, pushing a little outside of SE Qld’s swell window so locations north of the border - more so the Sunny Coast than the Gold Coast - will probably see a slow downwards trend by Sunday. But I’m not expecting any great change in size across most of Northern NSW on Sunday, perhaps a slight easing after lunch.
As for conditions, a continuing weak pressure pattern adjacent the coast should maintain light variable conditions and afternoon sea breezes. Really can’t ask for a lot more! Well, maybe a moderate offshore in places, though when that happens it tends to favour some locations and disadvantage others - but light variable breezes will be well received everywhere (a reminder: 'variable' means 'from any direction', which could be onshore, though it's unlikely to be detrimental if it occurs).
Next week (Feb 8 onwards)
A new ridge will build across the East Coast on Monday and maintain three days or more of fresh, gusty S/SE winds across all coasts. This will focus the best waves to sheltered southern corners and the like, and it may persist across northern regions into Thursday.
We’ll also see some building mid-range S’ly swell (reaching a mid-week peak in the 3-5ft range at south facing beaches south of Byron) but to begin with, the weekend’s E’ly swell will remain the dominant source.
Over the weekend, TC Lucas will probably have transitioned to an extra-tropical cyclone (i.e. losing its tropical characteristics) but its swell-generating fetch will remain active until about Sunday morning - but as mentioned above, aimed more towards southern locations. As such we’ll see a gradual easing into Monday morning (inconsistent 4-5ft sets exposed beaches in Northern NSW, down to 3ft by the afternoon and then 2ft by Tuesday.
SE Qld and Far Northern NSW will see smaller surf, easing from about 3-4ft on the Gold Coast/Northern Rivers Monday morning, down to 2-3ft by the afternoon and 1-2ft Tuesday. Expect slightly smaller surf on the Sunshine Coast.
Next week’s building S/SE swell/wind combo won’t open up many great surfing opportunities though the outer SE Qld points should fare reasonably well for keen surfers mid-late week.
However, while this is going on, another tropical cyclone will have developed near Fiji (this weekend, actually) and should be inside our swell window by Monday afternoon. At this stage, it doesn’t look anywhere near as good as the current system thanks to the lack of a supporting ridge to the south, but core winds do look pretty strong so inconsistent 3-4ft sets can’t be ruled out - probably arriving around Thursday.
So, lots to look forward to!
See you Friday.
Comments
Ben, love your work mate, when you say smaller running down the points, that's a bit confusing. Inside points like First Point Noosa or Agnes I get, but most Goldie points face north, directly into this swell direction and will be the same size as the beachies. Southerly swells I understand, but these NE sources should be pretty well same size everywhere. Thoughts?
Surf size does tend to decrease as you wind your way down the points. It's just a general reference so that punters don't expect double overheads at Greeny.
This swell is not NE. It’s Ely. Possibly even tending slight E/SE. Even the Lucas swell isn’t NE. Maybe 85-90 deg as the main fetch is actually the squeeze between Lucas and the Tasman high.
Eh? I've referenced it as E'ly everywhere, haven't I?
Just north off Coffs. Can’t compare 4ft cooly to 4ft open beach anywhere. Always more punch on a beachie whether on a northern gc beach or MNC.
Absolutely. Anyway, north of 6ft, most open beaches are overpowered and unsurfable anyway.
I think a 4ft drainer at snapper or Kirra can pack a whole lot more punch than a 4ft open beachie.
absolutely.
Superbank looking superb this morning. Plenty of sets like this:
Then bigger bombs like this:
Kinda what Multi-cam was built for.
Narrowneck looking good.. except.. it's nowhere near the reef!
And Noosa on the pump too.
geez just lookin at the cams and seems like lots of swell but besides greenmount which resembles a total zoo the rest look pretty crappy.
Another cracker of a morning out there, Gold Coast, Ballina and Coffs look the pick from what I've seen.
1 person out as far as the eye could see, trash. Come on Autumn.
Made the pilgrimage to a secret southern GC point and surfed it with only a few hundred of my closest mates.
I pretty much stick to the beachies but didn't want another day of battling big swell, questionable banks and moving water, so here is my review as an average surfer given there is a few questions about it.
Firstly, wave quality. Yeah, it's really, really good. Easy to take off, punchy for the size and barrels to be had. I was in the spot twice but pussied out and straightened out instead of pulling in and rolling the dice. As above, the wave size is smaller than the open beaches but at the same size, a 3ft wave at Kirra is much more violent than a 3ft beachie IMO.
Second, the crowd. I'm the first to whinge about the crowd but if you pick your spot in the conga line, you can jag a few. I was surprised.
Third, the kooks. This one was surprising as stated above, I'm not the best surfer in the world but fuck me. Walking around the headland you would see dumb shit galore. Drop ins, ditching boards in front of people screaming down the line and whatever else you can think of. I also saw seemingly every single surfboard known to man which was weird as I thought it would be primarily shortboard thrusters but no. I saw fishes, I saw (too many) longboards, I saw a SUP, I saw midlength 2+1, I saw a semi-gun. The ease of getting out and floating down the line really let's anyone out and this was a biggish day. I can't imagine the zoo when it's a bit smaller and clean. I'm truly surprised there aren't more injuries out there, or are there? I don't know.
Fourth, the sweep! Fuck me, I was pooped really quickly and now I know why Fanning, Parko and co are such good paddlers.
Anyway, it is what it is and I had a lot of fun. I'm jealous of all you old cunts that had it relatively uncrowded. It really is the best/one of the best right hand points in the world if you removed the world class crowds. I'm happy surfing whatever everyday to keep sharp and am counting the days until my oz surf trip and unless it's a day like today, or the last couple, the juice isn't worth the squeeze (for me).
All the best people!
Great report thanks for sharing!
Similiar to my experiences when I visit the best worst wave except the sweep. Can always jag a few :-)
Theres ways to deal with the sweep. I surfed for two and half hours this morning without a single walk back around... If you look closely at how the currents move down the bank, you should be able to work it out.
That analysis was perfect analysis IMO. Managed a few this morning on dawn before the crowd and the sweep picked up too much. As for injuries, some booger broke his collar bone down at spot X yesterday but that was his own fault for taking off on a 4ft high, 8ft wide closeout of death.
Noosa this morning. Oh my goodness.
Tommy. Worked today. Yesterday morning was one of the best Noosa sessions Ive had. Not really that many people out. Got given the prime position park from someone who recognised me in the carpark. Gave it to someone with a salty souls sticker on there car when I was leaving. Was actually mad
Sick bro. I had to park up in the Cove this am even though I got there well before 5am. Crazy. Boiling Pot was like a zoo even at dawn, but from Natios thru to Johnsons it was (relatively) quiet. The sand there is just insane.
Don't know if I'll bother this weekend with all the crowds; I've heard the central points have been bog average of late so perhaps a dry coupla days ahead.
Managed to score "somewhere in Noosa" with only a few out who knew what they were doing - I guess its safety in numbers for most. Fair enough.
I don't know what was happening yesterday morning. Only went Noosa as I got rained out at 3.30 and thought fuck it why not. There really wasn't that many out and it was relatively cooking
Ballina didn't look much today, scored some epic point waves further north though, got 3 absolute screamers and a bunch of other good ones. The first big bastard i got was my best wave in months i think, ran from the point into the beach, hollow and rippable as all hell...
So damn happy
Surfed 4-5' peaks solo nnsw,few nice lefts,bit of a paddle out but beats the zoo on the points.
Real good early but the northerly killed it pretty quick down here
kind of fun all day here, as it has been all week.
not great, not shithouse, but heaps of fun.
light winds all day.
the sand at the pass is pretty epic, afternoon outgoing tide made for a great session , hectic but plenty of waves, with more to come .
I think I am going to surf pass at 4 30 am and actually get some waves
Large, thick lines pouring into Cooly.
Meanwhile at Snapper...
And therein lies the problem ATM. Deep water, easy paddle out at from Snapper depositing all and sundry right in the thick of it off Rainbow. Usually at this size only the fittest/most in-tune actually get out without being washed down to Cooly. So many kooks in trouble right now...stay safe everyone.
Dialled into the Noosa cam, here's the first set I saw as it rolled down the point. Check the shimmering perfection through some of the latter images.
Cove -> First Point looking horrendous.
Dolphin!
Nice insiders...
Between the sets.
Tweed buoy looking very strong. Interestingly Tp is only one or two seconds higher than the trade swell earlier in the week. But, there's more power (and size) across the frequency.
swell definitely stronger today. surfed through the zoo at coolie this morning. Kirra was actually not that crowded, and there were waves for the taking, absolutely terrifying of the big groyne, so heavy, but a lot of barrels to be had. got a couple of smokers then my ass handed to me by a closeout which washed me in.. 3 run arounds and I am done. Whislt the bank is not perfect, the paddle out today was quite hard which has washed alot of the muppets away...
Wow, I parked on Kirra hill at 7ish and there were close to a 100 blokes(and 3 jetskis) right in line with the eagle. It looked solid as yes but not in the mood for scraps and that paddle. I joined the Cooly crowd and found a few thanks to the wash through sets keeping most honest. 2 runarounds and done. PS. the cam replays are amazing, found my leg burner wave with minimal effort. YEEWW. @juegasiempre great write up mate, you are not alone. Yip there are days where you get none and other that are very memorable. That's the game
Kirra definitely was hard work, but definitely there for the taking, it was very consistent. even the pros (ex?) were feeling magnanimous and called me into a couple...
Saw this set hit Rainbow earlier at 9.35am, if you squint you'll see a guy about to bottom turn, has to be nearing triple overhead.
i think the guy in last pic of goldy report might have wrong equipment
yeah happy to be on my step up. although I saw a guy paddling out on a wooden alaia... got smashed..
https://www.swellnet.com/surfcams/kirra/replays#/2021-02-05/1174513
About 20s in, late for a double barrel double spitter and more down the line, jeezus.
https://www.swellnet.com/surfcams/kirra-big-groyne/replays#/2021-02-05/1...
About 3:35 in, same wave.
Well spotted, replays page working now.
Yep, got it at 3:36 in this clip, pumping:
https://www.swellnet.com/surfcams/kirra-big-groyne/replays#/2021-02-05/1174506
Shot!
And looks like he gets a 3rd lesser barrel after the cutty. And then view it on the Kirra cam again, right at the end I think he might get a 4th after it zooms back in.
Yep definitely at least 4 coverups.
I'd go in and tell everyone I know.
Hey thats was me!!!... .......
....
in the imapct zone duck diving...... sigh....
Ha!
i think i saw low flying finless Hynd on the Pass cam
Pink/red board? Saw in real life, but wasn't Hynd.
Solid South End of SC last few days - 1/2 dozen out at most, all sharing and caring
Lost this morning at Coolangatta
https://www.gumtree.com.au/s-ad/coolangatta/surfing/lost-surfboard-yello...
Please tell me you weren't surfing that thing out there this morning...
A craft like that on a day like today is asking for trouble.
nah that's old mate from the surf report in the last photo?
Beachies we’re struggling to handle the size on the central sunny coast early this morning with the mid tide. First wave this morning I pulled into the frothiest slaughterhouse of a tunnel. Snapped my leg rope, spent 10mins getting raped by 5ft plus close outs trying to swim in. Got to my board, ran home got a new leggie, ran back to the beach, timed my paddle out terribly. Duck dived first set wave detonator and came up with half a board then got raped again by 4 or 5 set wave closeouts. Had a good coffee though afterwards.
hahahahah bummer.
Surfed double island point today. 2-3 foot drainers and not that many out. Shame the size didn’t really wrap into the bay but was cooking nonetheless
Mind-surfed some glassy 5ft Tea Tree barrels at work today. Beautiful conditions, barely anyone out. Did 4 loops from Natios back around to Dolphin point. Flipping knackered.