South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 11th January)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun trade swell all week
• Easing SE winds through Tues and Wed (north of Byron), then becoming light/varibale
• Light winds and sea breezes south from Byron all week
• Slow weekend of waves
• Coupla solid south swells for next week

Recap: A mix of SE and E’ly swells maintained 4ft sets across exposed SE Qld and Far Northern NSW coasts on Saturday, easing to 3-4ft Sunday and 2-3ft+ today. Surf size has been smaller on the points. Winds have been generally fresh SE north from about Byron Bay but there have been early pockets of lighter S’ly winds. South from Yamba, winds relaxed quickly through Saturday and have been generally light and variable with sea breezes. 

Snapper is trying... trying to break

This week (Jan 12 - 15)

Looks like a fun week of useful trade swell across most coasts. 

A broad ridge stretches out across the northern Tasman Sea, and this should maintain peaky 2-3ft+ sets at exposed beaches in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW on Tuesday and Wednesday, easing a smidge into Thursday and Friday - though probably not losing much size. 

The ridge will gradually retreat north over the coming days, so we’ll see today’s fresh trades (in the north) slowly abate. Tuesday still has a risk for moderate (south from Brisbane) to fresh (north from Brisbane) winds at times but there should be pockets of early light S/SW winds.

Wednesday will see the same risk, with a little less strength, and mainly confined north of Brisbane.

South from Byron, we’re looking at light variable winds all week. Later Thursday and Friday do have a minor N’ly risk as a trough moves up from the south but I don’t think it’ll be overly detrimental. 

This weekend (Jan 16 - 17)

A deepening trough at the tail end of the ridge - just north of New Zealand - looks like forming an impressive swell generating system from Tuesday through Wednesday and Thursday.

Unfortunately, this will occur mainly inside the NZ swell shadow, so I’m a little skeptical that we’ll see a great deal of size or energy. Nevertheless, an associated pulse of slightly stronger E’ly swell is on the cards for Saturday morning, with very inconsistent 3ft sets at exposed beaches. However there’ll be very long waits for waves. It’ll probably persist through Sunday too.

Otherwise, a trough pushing up the NSW coast on Friday will being a S’ly change to Northern NSW on Saturday, and a small flush of associated south swell. No major size is expected but south facing beaches (south of Byron) should see building size through Saturday (late in the north) to 2-3ft, easing through Sunday. 

The trough isn’t expected to affect SE Qld to any major degree, so winds will probably remain light both days north form Byron. 

The main concern this weekend is that the swell consistency (from both sources) will be down quite a bit from what we’re going to see this week, which won’t work well with the weekend crowds. As such, make the most of the next few days for your maximum wave count. 

Next week (Jan 18 onwards)

Looks like next week has a few decent south swells lining up for Northern NSW, though the first one will be quite acute in origin and direction. It’ll be generated from a cut-off low forming below Western Australia on Thursday, which is then modelled to track along the ice shelf before tracking NE into the Tasman Sea from later Friday through Saturday (see below).

The resulting swell should reach Southern NSW form late Sunday through Monday, building across the Mid North Coast Monday afternoon and reaching the Far North Coast late afternoon. 

I’m a little cautious on the potential Tasmanian shadowing, but early indications are for 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron. The downside is that we’re looking at pre-frontal N’ly winds freshening across the region. 

A more significant cut off low trailing behind the aforementioned system has the potential for a major southerly swell during the middle of next week, building Tuesday, peaking Wednesday, easing Thursday with sets maxing out somewhere in the 6ft to maybe 6-8ft at exposed beaches in Northern NSW (much smaller in SE Qld, of course). 

Such a swell event would be accompanied with gusty S’ly quadrant winds too, so it’ll only be suitable for sheltered points and protected southern ends. However this is a long time away, so don’t lock in anything just yet. 

Either way, there’s a lot of action on the long term charts. 

See you Wednesday!