South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 6th January)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Windy conditions Thurs/Fri/Sat/Sun (easing through the weekend, south of Yamba)
• Building combo of S'ly and S/SE swells Thurs, holding Fri, easing slowly from Sat
• OK run of waves for the outer SE Qld points, but not especially favourable elsewhere
• Better conditions next week with small persistent trade swells

Recap: Tuesday’s northerly flow extended further north than expected, affecting SE Qld and Far Northern NSW throughout the day. E’ly swells maintained inconsistent 2-3ft sets at most open beaches. We’ve seen light variable winds this morning, freshening NE into the afternoon ahead of a fresh S’ly change that reached Coffs around 10am and Byron Bay around 5pm. 

Kingscliff post-southerly, Wednesday evening

This week (Jan 5 - 8)

Gusty S/SE winds will dominate the rest of the week, though it’ll actually originate from a second change currently pushing into Southern NSW (this afternoon’s change was associated with a local trough). 

As such, the only surfable options will be at sheltered southern ends and semi-exposed/outer points that can handle the breezey conditions. SE Qld should see lighter winds early Thursday - possibly S/SW across one or two locations - but it won’t last long on the Gold Coast, with the S/SE flow becoming established by early-mid morning, with the Sunshine Coast seeing a slightly later arrival (mid-late morning). 

With regards to surf, there’ll be a small undercurrent of persistent trade swell both days but the dominant energy will be trailing windswell behind the change. South facing beaches south of Byron should reach a bumpy, wind-affected 3-5ft by the end of the day (smaller earlier), though protected locations and points will be smaller. 

The outer SE Qld sand bottom points should do OK over the next few days, with building surf to 3ft by Thursday afternoon (smaller earlier), holding Friday. Exposed northern ends will be bigger but unrideable thanks to the windy conditions. 

For what its worth, a Tasman Low developing at the south-eastern end of the troughline (responsible for today’s S’ly change) has been upgraded in size and strength since Monday's notes, though it will remain poorly aligned within our swell window. However, stronger winds across a broader, longer fetch will create a little more size than was anticipated in Monday’s notes, and this S/SE energy will also arrive a little earlier too - nosing into the coast later Thursday and holding through Friday. That being said, wave heights from this source won’t be much bigger than the pre-existing short range energy.

Also in the water later Thursday (Mid North Coast) and Friday (remaining Northern NSW coasts) will be a long period though flukey, unreliable southerly groundswell, generated by a deep low south of the continent over the weekend. Again, south facing beaches south of Byron won’t pick up any more size than the local S’ly swell and additional S/SE groundswell, but it will add in some further complexity into the mix. 

This weekend (Jan 9 - 10)

A persistent though gradually easing S/SE airstream all weekend will maintain similar conditions north of Yamba as per Thurs/Fri, only favouring sheltered southern ends and points.

Winds will be much lighter south from Yamba, but it may not be until Sunday that we see the synoptic flow properly slacken off (to become light and variable) across the Mid North Coast. 

As for surf, with no new swells in store and a broadly easing flow across the Tasman Sea, we’ll see slowly easing size from Friday night onwards. South facing beaches south of Byron should see early 3-5ft sets on Saturday, but they’ll ease to 2-3ft+ by Sunday. Expect smaller surf at beaches not open to the south.

North of the border, we’ll see the same trend but with a little less size - initially 3ft across the outer points on Saturday morning, and bigger at at exposed northern ends, but wind affected (and smaller across the inner points) and easing into Sunday. There’s very little chance for early pockets of SW winds, probably just the southern Gold Coast if anywhere. 

Next week (Jan 11 onwards)

Light winds are expected across much of Northern NSW next week as a weak Tasman high engages more so with the Southern NSW coast. We’ll see a light to moderate synoptic trade flow across SE Qld but it should be sufficiently weak by this time to allow for occasional windows of light variable winds. 

As for surf, the broader synoptics are a little dull, though a stationary ridge through the northern Tasman should maintain 2-3ft of easterly swell all week (give or take - i.e. perhaps a little more in SE Qld, a little less on the MNC).

The main feature to keep a watch on is a developing trough of low pressure north of New Zealand that may spawn a more significant easterly swell system for the middle to latter part of next week. But that is still some time away. 

See you Friday!