South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Saturday 26th December)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small peaky trade swell on Sun, biggest in SE Qld 
• N'ly winds affecting surf quality Sun PM (Northern NSW), then Monday and Tuesday north from Yamba (though perhaps not too bad on the Sunny Coast)
• Coastal trough providing light winds Tues south from Yamba, spreading everywhere else Wed
• Building E'ly swells Thurs onwards from a couple of sources, potentially sizeable Fri/Sat/Sun, though onshore at times
• Stacks of E'ly swell next week

Recap: E’ly swell from TC Yasa remained strong through Thursday and Friday, both days offering punchy 4ft sets across Northern NSW though SE Qld seemed to come in a little smaller. Set waves were very inconsistent too. Size eased back to a slow, much weaker 2-3ft today though it was still super fun. There’s also been some S’ly swell on offer across Northern NSW, up into the 3ft mark at south swell magnets. Winds have been quite workable over the last three days, with light periods through the mornings and only light to moderate afternoon onshores. Hope you’ve been getting a few!

Solid peak standing up on the Tweed Coast Thursday morning (check SUP rider for scale)

Inconsistent groundswells aren't as useful at the Superbank.. loooong waits between sets doesn't allow the crowd to shift

Thursday morning at Kirra

E'ly swells still holding in at Coffs Harbour Sat PM

And some S'ly swell too!

This weekend and next week (Dec 27 onwards)

Looks like we’re at the tail end of this long run of E’ly swell from TC Yasa, all up about a week’s worth in total - nothing overly sizeable but plenty of options each and every day.

The short term outlook is somewhat craptacular for a few regions over the next few days, but from Thursday onwards it’s starting to look pretty juicy everywhere.

Over the next few days we’ll start to see northerlies affect the Northern NSW Coast through Sunday, though Far Northern NSW should see light winds through the morning. Light to moderate easterlies are expected in SE Qld though it’ll probably be variable through the morning at many spots.

There’s not a lot of surf expected for Northern NSW over the last few days, with just some minor residual S’ly and E’ly swell across the region. SE Qld should see a building trade swell from a ridge anchored in the Coral Sea, though it won’t be very big - perhaps 2ft+ across the Gold Coast and maybe some 2-3ft sets on the Sunny Coast open beaches, but size will become smaller as you head south from the border. 

This trade flow will ebb and flow across the Northern Tasman/Lower Coral Sea through the first half of next week, so we’ll see a persistent undercurrent of trade swell for quite a few days. The bulk size across the Sunny Coast on Sunday (2-3ft) should spread southwards across Northern NSW on Monday and Tuesday thanks to the ridge extending a little further back into the South Pacific, but unfortunately, a coastal ridge will strengthen N’ly winds on Monday, rendering all but the most sheltered northern corners quite bumpy. 

The only caveats to this are the Sunshine Coast, which should see lighter winds than its southern brethren - though don’t expect fantastic conditions by any stretch - and also the Mid North Coast, which should see some influence from an encroaching surface trough, pushing up from the south. It’s expected to show best Tuesday (with light variable winds up to about Yamba) but there’s actually a chance late Monday may see a localised let-up from the northerly flow (probably just the Lower MNC). 

Wednesday looks to see a more broadscale influence in coastal troughiness with light variable winds and improving conditions. Though, onshore periods are possible so be mindful that it won’t be perfect. 

And there’s one other swell source for the middle of the week - the southern flank of the aforementioned coastal trough will extend eastwards back into the Tasman Sea on Tuesday, and a thin band of fresh to strong E/SE winds may generate some mid-range swell for later Tuesday and Wednesday, probably just the Mid North Coast with 2-3ft sets. 

On Wednesday, a second coastal trough is expected to form along the Central Qld coast and this will herald the start of a much more dynamic run of wind and surf for SE Qld and (hopefully) Northern NSW.

As this trough slowly deepens, strong E’ly winds on its southern flank will generate building E’ly swells from the Sunshine Coast down to the Northern Rivers. This pattern looks to remain stationary, and theres a suggestion for small embedded lows to for on the trough line that could greatly enhance wave heights (over and above the regional swell size). 

The timing on this is not yet clear, and much of this pattern will be accompanied with strengthening E’ly winds so the resulting surf will be limited to sheltered points and protected locations. However early indications are for a steady upwards trend on Thursday pushing 5-6ft on Friday, possibly holding somewhere in and around this size range over the weekend. 

What’s not clear right now is how far south this trough will influence, and whether we’ll see a merger with the Mid North Coast trough - which itself will be attached to a stronger ridge pushing up from Southern NSW (see below), building a secondary source of E/SE swell across Northern NSW. So, there's no shortage of surf on the outlook, no matter what coast you're at. It's just that the most likely local wind solution will be some form of easterly, possibly at strength (depending on your proximity ot the trough). But I'll have more on that over the coming days.  

Long term beyond next weekend into the following week looks really promising with a large blocking high in the Tasman Sea directing a broad E’ly thru’ E/NE fetch through our swell window, providing an extended run of solid trade swell for the entire East Coast. 

More on that in Monday’s update. See you then!