South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 9th December)

Best Days: Thurs: Fun S'ly swell in Northern NSW with early light winds. Only small in SE Qld. Sat onwards: building E'ly swell, which is expected to remain strong for the following week and a half at least. Plenty of large days in the mix, tho' wind affected at times (best suited to SE Qld points). 

Recap: Easing N/NE windswells maintained occasional 2ft sets at exposed north facing swell magnets on the Gold Coast early Tuesday, before easing during the day. Surf size was smaller elsewhere. A southerly change extended across the region during the day, building S’ly windswells that reached 3ft+ this morning, before fading in size through the day. A new S’ly groundswell reached Sydney mid-late this morning, and has nosed into the Mid North Coast this afternoon, showing 3ft to almost 4ft sets at south swell magnets for the late session. Mainly S’ly winds this morning (light and variable in a few locations, generally south from Yamba) have swung E’ly this afternoon throughout SE Qld and NE across Northern NSW.

New S'ly swell in Coffs this evening

This week (Dec 10 - 11)

Unfortunately, the new S’ly swell currently building across Northern NSW will probably peak overnight and then ease gradually through Thursday morning. 

The Northern Rivers stands the chance for the most size (and slightly longer tail of the energy) early morning, but size will ease steadily during the day. As such, make the most of the morning session, when we should see occasional 3-4ft sets at south swell magnets south of Byron, though smaller elsewhere during to the direction (the Mid North Coast may be smaller, as the swell will be drying up from the south earlier). Freshening afternoon NE breezes will render most breaks quite choppy after lunch.

North of the border, this south swell won’t offer much size away from exposed northern ends (occ 2ft+ sets). Most outer points and open beaches will probably struggle with slow 1-1.5ft sets tops. 

An approaching southerly change across Southern NSW Thursday afternoon is expected to stall across the Mid North Coast early Friday morning with a troughy pattern enveloping the coastal margin, so the wind outlook to finish the week is a little unsure - though light variable breezes are likely through the morning, before the trough pushes onshore during the day, bringing with it freshening easterly winds.

At this stage there won’t be much new swell on offer, just a mix of energy from previous days with perhaps a minor boost in short range S/SE energy across the Mid North Coast, associated with Thursday’s southerly change (to the south). Exposed beaches in Northern NSW may see stray 2-3ft sets (mainly in the south) but we’ll struggle to see much more than 1-2ft north of the border. It’s not worth getting too excited about.

Late afternoon may herald the start of the weekend’s building E'ly swell across SE Qld - but it’ll be low quality and probably no major increase in size, just a foot or so. But it will be worth keeping an eye on the surfcams from about lunchtime onwards. 

This weekend (Dec 12 - 13)

Wow, what an outlook!

First things first: another series of fronts below Tasmania over the coming days will generate small sideband south swells for the weekend, perhaps 2-3ft at south facing beaches south of Byron very late Saturday and through Sunday.

Now, on to the main focus for the weekend, a stationary ridge of high pressure will linger across the southern Tasman Sea from Friday through much of next week, cradling a deepening trough across the Coral Sea. This trough - or E’ly dip, as it’s expected to evolve towards within a few days - will slowly track S/SW all weekend, with its axis due about east of Byron by Sunday night (most of its swell generating potential will be south and east of this position). It's an exciting synoptic chart. 

The two main things we need to know about this pattern is (1) we’ll see building E’ly swells all weekend, and they’ll become quite large into Sunday, and (2) winds will strength as the E’ly dip approaches, however they'll veer from the E/SE to the SE and then S/SE as this occurs. Though, it’ll happen earlier up north and later down south.

How big? Models have intensified this system since Monday’s notes were prepared, and to be honest late Sunday looks like it’ll overpower most coasts with 6-8ft+ surf across most regions. The upside is that locations north from about Byron should see winds veer near-southerly at some point, which will assist sheltered locations and points able to handle the size. 

Northern NSW looks very tricky though as winds will remain E’ly up to the trough’s axis (so locations south from about Byron may remain onshore for the entire period).

Prior to this, Saturday will be smaller - though still strong, and rapidly increasing from 3-4ft to 4-6ft throughout the day. Again, SE Qld should fare a little better wind wise with a better chance for more S/SE thru SE (than E/SE) in the wind direction.

 But, we really need a few more days to firm things up.

Oh yeah, it’s gonna be wet too.

Next week (Dec 14 onwards)

The approaching E’ly dip will slide south of our region through Monday, allowing winds to eventually become light and variable through Monday - though delayed south from Byron. I’ll have a better understanding of the timing in Friday’s notes. 

As for size, Monday will be very large across the Mid North Coast (8-10ft easy) but size will be smaller as you head north, thanks to the alignment of the fetch. That being said, it’ll still be very strong across SE Qld, probably still 6ft+ on the Gold Coast (smaller Sunshine Coast), easing to 4-5ft on Tuesday thanks to the tail of the fetch remaining active across the Northern Tasman Sea into the new week. The fetch will be slow moving too, so it should enhance wave heights compared to an otherwise mobile source. 

As such, I think the backside of this swell could provide the best waves. If nothing else, aside from light variable winds (don’t worry about the northerly risk in the model guidance just now), everyone will be buggered from three days of heavy short range surf. 

And it doesn’t end there.

Over the weekend, a tropical cyclone is expected to develop north-west of Fiji, and then slide south to about Vanuata’s latitude by Monday. Whilst the models are not yet confident on whether this cyclone will actually push clear into our swell window, a major supporting ridge stretching form the northern Tasman Sea all the way back into the South Pacific will maintain healthy E’ly swells for the long term, building from Friday through Monday or Tuesday of the following week, and likely holding for a few days at strength. 

Early indications are that surf size won’t drop below 3-5ft at exposed beaches for this entire time frame, and could peak near 5-6ft+ around Monday - and that's without any direct enhancement from the cyclone. If the cyclone drops into our swell window, then the size potential will only go up more - it’s a big, beefy system whose slow moving characteristics close to the mainland are ideal ingredients for a very significant easterly groundswell event. But, let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet.

So, waves for days! And no need panic around the first few pulses either, you’ll need to conserve energy for the long haul.

See you Friday!