South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 19th August)

Best Days: Sun: keep an eye out for a small flukey S'ly swell. Mon/Tues: solid S'ly swell with improving conditions.

Recap: Leftover, easing S'ly swells and building E’ly swells were biggest in Northern NSW on Thursday, reaching 3-4ft south from Byron though with smaller surf throughout SE Qld, peaking near 2-3ft in the afternoon, unfortunately at the same time as northerly winds developed. Early morning offered good clean waves with light winds. Today has seen the E’ly swell ease significantly, and a small N’ly windswell has showed across north-facing beaches of SE Qld and Far Northern NSW with occasional 2ft sets early (smaller later). Winds have freshened from the NW all day, favouring northern corners. 

N'ly windswell at Burleigh

Early wind waves at Currumbin

Small clean windswell at Coolum

This week (Aug 20 - 21)

Winds will become fresh and gusty over the next four or five days, strong at times in the south, and with a W/NW alignment until about Sunday when we’ll see more of a SW tend before swinging S’ly into Monday. Winds will be lighter across Far Northern NSW and SE Qld but it’ll still be breezey at times. 

As for surf, the current swells are easing but there’s some small, lingering E’ly swell likely to keep exposed beaches from becoming flat. No major size is expected both days and with the energy being sourced from the South Pacific it’ll be terribly inconsistent, but the odd 1-2ft+ set can’t be ruled out both days. However, it’ll be very chilly thanks to the presence of long, windy breaks between set waves. 

Northern NSW’s south swell magnets (mainly south from Coffs) may also pick up a small S’ly on Friday, originating from a developing fetch of SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait early Thursday. It’s poorly aligned for our coast but swell magnets might see occasional 2ft sets from this source. So, keep your expectations low.

This weekend (Aug 22 - 23)

Strengthening westerlies all weekend will reach gale force or stronger across the Mid North Coast at times, and it’ll be pretty fresh across SE Qld too.

This fetch looks terrible on paper - due westerly, pointed away forth coast - but the sheer breadth and strength of the fetch, plus its duration means we can’t rule out a small spread of funky south swell across Far Northern NSW and even SE Qld this weekend. It’s happened before, but is a very low confidence event so keep your expectations low.

At this stage Saturday is shaping up to see similarly small, residual, extremely inconsistent E’ly swell as per Friday - only just surfable at the swell magnets and somewhat wind affected.

Any new S’ly swell spread will probably show from Sunday morning. How big? Who knows.. but as a ballpark, likely flat at most beaches, 1-2ft at some south facing beaches, and maybe the odd 2-3ft rare bomb at one or two swell magnets. Let’s take a closer look on Friday.

Next week (Aug 24 onwards)

The Tasman Low generating this large south swell looks pretty impressive on the synoptics, and rightly so (see below). Monday’s peak in size should push 6-8ft at south facing beaches in Northern NSW, but we’ll see much smaller surf elsewhere. 

SE Qld will see a building trend during the day and late afternoon should push 2-3ft+ across the outer Gold Coast points but Tuesday morning is a safer bet for this peak in energy. Expect a little less size across the Sunny Coast, and wave heights will then ease steadily across all regions during the day. 

Winds will initially be fresh SW in the south on Monday but we’ll see light winds in SE Qld, which will extend across all coasts into Tuesday.

A series of strong but poorly aligned polar lows/fronts in the Southern Ocean reinforcing southerly swell around Wed/Thurs with occasional 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron, but much smaller surf elsewhere. An unrelated front may also clip the coast around the same time, keeping wind direction from the southern quadrant.

Long term doesn’t have anything of major interest at this stage, so let’s keep a close eye on potential windows of opportunity early next week at your favourite southerly-focused beaches.

See you then!