Dynamic, complex outlook.. but there are waves ahead!
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 27th July)
Best Days: Tues: small beachies in the north, bigger across the Mid North Coast. Later Wed/Thurs/Fri/Sat: good mix of S'ly and E'ly swells, but with gusty S'ly winds. Sun: easing S/SE swell, light winds.
Recap: Well, wasn’t that a challenging weekend! Surf size generally came in line with expectations, but local winds threw a curveball on Saturday, offering generally S’ly winds (and periods of onshores) which favoured the points, and delivered an afternoon of excellent sizeable surf across the southern Gold Coast, pushing 5-6ft. As the trough moved southwards into Sunday, winds slowly went offshore, with SE Qld seeing the effects first off, as 4-6ft E/NE swell eased slowly from the Gold Coast south (smaller on the Sunshine Coast, which saw a peak later Saturday) though wave heights built across the more southern parts of Northern NSW. Today saw surf size ease back more than expected in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW - just 1-2ft, though parts of the Mid North Coast were close to forecast, except the southern region where some reports of 6-8ft+ surf came through (and for reference, Southern NSW peaked in the 10-12ft range across Sydney and 12-15ft across the South Coast). Winds have been mainly NW today.
Snapper Rocks, late Saturday afternoon
This week (July 28 - 31)
The current Tasman Low (though, it could be an ECL, I haven’t had a chance to analyse properly), is slowly moving southwards, and most of its energy is aimed into Southern NSW, which means we’re looking at much smaller wave heights in Northern NSW and SE Qld for the next few days. But there is plenty more energy on the way.
A new SE fetch and S’ly fetch developing around the low’s southern and western flanks (today and tomorrow) will be generally aimed outside of our swell window(s) so we’ll be relying on the eastern flank of the broad supporting trough, which had E/NE gales across the central Tasman Sea for most of today.
This swell is also best aimed towards Southern NSW but the Mid North Coast should pick up some 3-4ft sets on Tuesday (bigger across the southern stretches) but we’ll see smaller surf to the north, holding slow, inconsistent 1-2ft+ sets at exposed beaches in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW for the next few days, a little bigger as you head south from Byron. Moderate to fresh W/NW tending NW winds will favour the open beaches for the best conditions. The E/NE swell will then ease into Wednesday morning.
A complex troughy pattern will concurrently resume its dominance across the western Tasman Sea, and a strengthening E/NE thru NE fetch on the eastern side will generate new E/NE swells for later Wednesday and (more likely) Thursday onwards. We’re actually looking at an extended run of E’ly swell thanks to a broad fetch across the north-eastern Tasman Sea, stretching way back into the South Pacific, though the biggest waves will be across more southern regions - i.e. the Mid North Coast.
Getting the timing and phase of this E/NE swell is difficult, as it looks like the head of the fetch will be very strong, albeit short lived. So, we may see an initial strong pulse in the 4-6ft range (smaller in Far Northern NSW and SE Qld, around 3-5ft) before surf size levels back to around 3-4ft into Thursday afternoon and Friday, a little smaller north from about Byron or thereabouts.
At the same time, a series of southerly fetches associated with the latter stages of the current Tasman Low - and a new front approaching from the south - will generate a couple of flukey south swells for Northern NSW. The first is due on Wednesday (mainly south from Coffs, perhaps some 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches) but Thursday and Friday should pick up a little more size, around 4-6ft at times, though smaller elsewhere. SE Qld wil pick up some of this energy but it probably won't be any more than the pre-existing E'ly swell.
The main influence of this southerly regime will be on local winds, which will strength from the S/SW through S’ly direction from Wednesday (Mid North Coast) into Thursday and Friday (everywhere else). So, sheltered southern ends and points will be your best option.
This weekend (Aug 1 - 2)
A new Tasman Low will form on Thursday, and strengthen into Friday whilst undertaking a slow S/SE track. This looks to be our primary swell source for the weekend though there’ll be residual E’ly energy across all coasts all weekend in the 3ft range.
S/SE swell from the Tasman Low should reach 4-6ft at south facing beaches south of Byron on Saturday morning, before slowly easing into the afternoon and further into Sunday. This S/SE swell should manage 3-4ft sets across the outer Gold Coast points on Saturday (smaller Sunny Coast) but the easing trend should level it out with the pre-existing E’ly swell on Sunday.
Persistent S/SE winds are expected on Saturday (early pockets of SW winds here and there) but Sunday’s looking the best with light variable winds and sea breezes.
So, points for Saturday, open beaches on Sunday. Looks good!
Next week (Aug 3 onwards)
Yep another southwards tracking tropical depression is expected to push from New Caledonia towards New Zealand from Friday into Saturday, strengthening E/NE winds into the South Pacific and generating a fresh E/NE swell for sometime around Mon/Tues of next week. This looks best for Southern NSW though we should see surf size around the 3-4ft mark from this swell.
An unrelated cut-off low moving in from the west also looks to provide solid southerly swells for Northern NSW early next week.
See you Wednesday!
Comments
https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-dispatch/2020/07/23/toonalook-poi...
This article is such an accurate summary of what life is like for a surfer here. You are either a gambling addict hoping for the next big payout (set wave at snapper) or you are in stuck in close out beaches to escape the crowd.
Australia the meecca of surfing my arse hole.
Yeah crowds suck and all but what can you do? Every c@$! in the country surfs now, especially since 'rona came to town, but I don't see any solution.
Australia's population is big enough as is at the moment, we should put measures in place to stabilise it and limit further increase in my view. That would at least maintain the option of being able to take a trip to some of the less developed parts of the east coast and find an uncrowded wave. There's no point crying about breaks in the Goldie now, given the enormous population growth in the area the current situation was always going to be inevitable. The Sunshine Coast will follow a similar path and so will N NSW, as huge housing developments see more and more people crowd these regions. Blame successive governments for not coming up with more creative ways to run a country other than digging stuff out of the ground and encouraging population growth so we can build more and more houses.
Suppose we could build artificial reefs or something, but I'm sure the costs to do that are huge.
SDW agree totally - I am resigned to the crowding on the goldy, although you can’t help but rage when you just can’t quite jag one and ol’ mate, with arms akimbo and legs wide apart struggling to his/her feet somehow manages to snag a set drainer at snapper through the maddening crowd of a Saturday afternoon on a Gc point break.... why not me!!!!
I'd actually be pumped for that person. It's the wave of his life.
I can't say the same about every video that comes out from every swell that features fanning, parko, occy and friends every single time.
Wavepools, artificial reefs and pumping sand could all be the answer. Pump sand between the spit and Miami and create 14km of straddie equivalent peaks for everyone.
The crowd problem is not only because of the amount of surfers but because of the lack of waves and spots to surf. Sure if you're a learner then there is surf everywhere but I'm talking a serious lack of quality spots. The geography, including the angle of this east coast has definitely not been blessed by the gods.
Many south swells don't wrap into the points and the cyclone swells are very few. Couple this together with large stretches of coast which don't actually offer greats points and you are left with overcrowding.
Burleigh, currumbin, snapper and Lennox are the only proper points.
80% of the year surfers have to go to straddie or Dbah for a decent bank.
Kingscliff, cabarita and Byron are fickle and don't cut it most of the time. Sunshine Coast is just starved of waves let's not even go there.
I think we need one massive petition to Mayor Tom to help solve this issue. Pump the sand and save our lives?
Mayor Tate?? You're smoking crack Rockethut if you think that goon will ever do anything other than line his own pockets with bundles of Chinese cash in brown paper bags. As a long time Goldie local I understand your frustration with crowds, especially post Covid, but if you're on it and pick your windows you can still get sick waves on the points with not too much crew. The good old boys still get their share mate, put the time in and think outside the box and you will score.
"I'm talking a serious lack of quality spots. The geography, including the angle of this east coast has definitely not been blessed by the gods."
Wot?
The Gold Coast has been one of the more celebrated coastlines for quality waves over the last five decades.
Yeah, it's very crowded. But there's a few reasons for that - one of which is because a heck of a lot of surfers migrate to the Gold Coast at some point in time... because of the vast array of quality surf spots (not because of the nightlife, the beer or the footy).
Here's a great article by Chris Buykx from 2016, which goes into more detail about the regional geography.
https://www.swellnet.com/news/coastal-creationism/2016/02/09/coastal-cre...
Let me read this and I'll come back with feedback in the main thread.
The only option is to move if surfing is your priority. I live on the Gold Coast and that's what I'm doing from next year. The days I've had overseas with really good uncrowded waves seems like a fever dream compared to my daily reality of scratching around beachies, which are also now crowded when it's half decent.
The counter point that someone raised is that because of the population growth, you can earn more money easily. That's been my experience so I've taken the good ($$) with the bad (surfing).
I stand by the constant hyping from Swellnet over the last two swells, for example, really jacks up my FOMO. When I check the cams and the beaches and it's shit (Last swell was messy AF and the S swells were pretty big closeouts with a massive sweep) and then I get on Swellnet and they're hyping the shit out of it. You can't help but think, maybe I was just unlucky, maybe I got it on the wrong tide, maybe it was the winds, maybe going surfing on the human centipede isn't so bad.....
Anyway, I hope some people are getting something. When surfing fails me I have skateboarding to get the fun levels up. Gold Coast has really good skateparks and no hyping required.
"I stand by the constant hyping from Swellnet over the last two swells".
Got an example of this 'constant hyping'?
Sure. Mainly the surf reports and definitely the screen grabs you post in here. The latter being proof of nothing except a microsecond in time.
With the last swell, it was rubbish everywhere I checked because of the winds and the tail end of the swell totally disappeared. I rode my groveller yesterday! The entiriety of the last swell was so southerly it was nothing but big, long period closeouts on the beach with a good sweep. You can say there were waves at Narrowneck sure, but I saw.....one person in many hours get a good wave. The sweep was out of control.
It's is just my opinion though so if you disagree, we can agree to disagree. I don't really want to go through every example if you disagree. I understand your motivations.
'Reporting the conditions' is different from 'hyping the swell'.
Difference of opinion for sure. The photo above of Snapper is, I imagine the best out of many yeah? The highlight of the swell? IMO I would want to be no where near a wave that I can count 50! 50 people in the water in the vicinity of a breaking wave and junky swell lines behind it.
Difference of opinion.
Photo of Snapper was taken in the ten minutes I spent on the computer that afternoon (timestamp about 4:48pm, so a little late to be hyping the crowds to hit the water). The photo was uploaded as verification (on Monday) as to how the event panned out over the weekend. Which, wasn't quite as expected (wind wise).
@juegasiempre:
Yes I agree bro, surf here is shit most of the time and especially when Swellnet makes it looks like it was cooking...
Imagine not being able to get to the beach for some reason (being away or not) and then seeing a beautiful screen grab of a great set wave.
That will feed your FOMO for sure! As it would mine.
But....
@Ben:
I don't agree that anyone should be targeting Swellnet here, blaming them for increased crowds or making peoples FOMO worse or making people drive more to the beach during covid or not providing an accurate assessment of conditions. Ben keep doing the good job you do mate!
Without swellnet at all and without any cams whatsoever, I dont think this would change the fact of what the crowds are like.
Take the straddie taxi as one example!
When it stopped running for a few weeks during covid, the surfers just paddled across the jetty and the crowds were at an all time high without the taxi.
Then, the road leading to the spit was closed.
Again, nothing changed the crowd level, they just paddled across from other areas or road a skateboard from main beach...
On a good day of swell and offshores at straddie will see hords of surfers spending the whole day there with their lunch packed.
Cant blame Swellnet for FOMO, the solution has more to do with resetting your own mind and expectations.
Wow, thought I’d surf there again someday, somehow. Maybe not. What about the crowds when it’s 4ft or more, used to thin it out a fair bit?
Edit: answered below already
@Lot67, sure yes Tate is a wanker but he's unfortunately the person who needs to approve. I say we hound him until he can't take it anymore, also maybe another person like Sam OConnor once convinced can influence Tate.
Anyway your suggestion to think our the box is what I've been doing to try stay sane. No longer is it about working around the conditions to score but now it's working around the crowds to score.
And when I say score I mean wait until the wind makes it a little bumpy or until the tide starts killing in and then jump in for a slightly less crowded session. Or when the surf gets to big for most people and then go out....
Timing is everything and you can't be a weekend warrior either, instead you need a flexible job to be able to monitor the surf for that perfect window.
This is what surfing has become...
Remember when Tate was asked about Mick and other surfers speaking out against a cruise ship terminal? His answer was "I only listen to those that matter".... The guy is a gold level fucktard. Good luck finding your rhythm on the points mate, you're on the right track with your suggestions above.
Well I think we need to try get across to someone who will listen and who has some influence.
I will ponder this some more.
If you are on the ball and look past the hyped swells, there are plenty of uncrowded waves on the Goldie. I surfed every day last week at my local, super fun peaks varying from 2 to 4 foot. Crowds never over 10-15 people and I knew most of them.
Yes I had a dig at Snapper on Saturday, and yes it was crowded. But I don't let that define my surfing experience on the Gold Coast. Bottom line is use your imagination and you will get uncrowded waves.
I also checked the Cooly area late on Saturday arvo, saw the crowd at superbank, drove down to Kirra for a look and it was on with 20 people spread across the lineup. Not classic long Kirra, but very nice sectiony/peaky Kirra, and no hassling at all, everybody taking whatever waves they wanted. My mate and I couldn't believe our luck, barely 500m away there was 200 people scrapping it out on the superbank. And drifting north from Kirra the waves were still pumping and completely empty. Check this clip from the 2:40 mark, good example of what we scored: https://www.swellnet.com/surfcams/kirra/replays#/2020-07-25/872317
Shot for the link, yes that looks like a good score. Well done!
No tubes but definitely some waves without too much hassling.
I would say this score is rare and might have been the only option on the day.
Lucky
It all comes down to expectation doesn't it?
You read a piece of information (see clips, gets texts, etc)
You conjure up thoughts of a certain places with certain waves
You go there and experience what you experience
For many it won't be what your mind came up with, particularly if you surf goldy points. Its pretty tough not to have these thoughts based on the plethora of content coming out on the internet but there's only one person who in charge of how they feel about surfing or that particular surf...…..a hint, its not Swellnet.
Absolutely.
Look, I know I'll be hit with accusations of bias, but we regularly face charges of overhyping a swell only to read back through all our notes and collectively scratch our heads. Craig and Ben are very careful with language, choosing precise words and phrases to describe their thoughts, yet still people read the notes in a contrary way, and in most instances - not all, but the majority - it comes down to people bringing prior beliefs to the conversation.
Also, some judgement needs to be shown when interpreting forecast notes that cover a 500km surf zone. I've spoken to a dozen people who had their best waves in years on Wednesday 15th, dribbling about endless barrels at a number of breaks, while some people in here claimed the swell didn't live up to expectation.
Exactly Stu! I wonder if the guys constantly posting "yeeeew!" and "here we go!!" every time a new swell is forecast are the same ones claiming its hyped up when they didn't score what was in their imagination? Fickle, hard to please bunch aren't we...
Very true. My life is better when I temper my internet consumption and stay in my own lane. Comparison is the death of joy after all.
Still, the crowds are fucked on the GC and I'm getting out! If people don't share my opinion, power to them! They're the true winners because nothing good comes from sitting around whinging about stuff.
Yip all great comments here!
Agree fully
@Ben
I read the article you copied and this is not really what I am referring to.
But I found another article from the same author which comes much closer to what I meant when this coast lacks good quality and frequent setups.
https://www.swellnet.com/news/coastal-creationism/2015/11/03/coastal-cre...
So I am saying 2 things here.
1.) The angle of the whole coastline is not optimum for the continuous South swell we get. South from Byron is always bigger than the north towards GC. So 8ft south facing beaches result in 4-6ft Lennox and 2-4ft Burleigh for example. (if you lucky and dont have a south wind too then open beaches on GC can be 4ft+ but then the only decent banks are at straddie unless you want closeouts or short rides which dissipate into a deep channel before the shoreline (along main beach and others)
2.) The headlands face north and therefore the south swells do not tend to wrap in at the correct angle. Take Byron bay for 1 example (1ft most of the year)
"a heck of a lot of surfers migrate to the Gold Coast at some point in time... because of the vast array of quality surf spots (not because of the nightlife, the beer or the footy)." I disagree, I think the reason is warmer water and lower coast living for some (maybe those from SYD?) and for others it might also include a shorter drive (like those people from Melbourne?) or those from Perth who have no frequent wave activity at all and then lets not forget about those who just dont want to have to live in the middle of nowhere (moving from Sunshine coast to gold coast?). These are just some examples.
Once again, I dispute your claim that the Gold Coast has "a serious lack of quality spots".
Spark up that conversation with someone from the SA Mid or South Coasts, Mornington Peninsula, Perth, Mandurah, Eastern Sydney Beaches etc and see what the reaction is.
I mean, it's like complaining that the Vicco Surf Coast "doesn't have enough good beachies".
Ben I mean that there is a serious lack of quality spots WHICH WORK FREQUENTLY AND PROVIDE ENOUGH WAVES FOR EVERYONE.
This is thanks to the angle of the coastline and the angle of the headlands in respect to the dominant south swells.
On the occasion that Burleigh, Currumbin or Coolies area cooks, I for one dont want to paddle out there.
So going elsewhere leaves you with crap waves in comparison. (except for the rare good uncrowded session at Kirra mentioned earlier in the comments)
Between Coolies and Port Macquarie, you have a single great point which is Lennox. (yes there is Yamba but not close in comparison to Lennox most times of the year). Also yes there are more options on days with more E swell but we talking beach breaks which have varying quality.
Like I said earlier, yes Perth sucks and so do the other places you mention.
But is this a fair comparison? How about comparing Perth to Brisbane? Perth wins hands down! (Living in Brisbane has no waves at all)
I am not saying surf potential on GC is worse than Perth, of course it is not.
We also cant compare NT to GC for surf potential.
Surf potential vs crowd level equals a better comparison to not having a good surf experience in the water.
So I say lets work on building more sand pump stations and artificial reefs to help solve the problem.
What if we try have this funded by the community then we would only need to get approval or permission to do it.
When the GC council has to fund something then they have to prioritize other "more important stuff".
But if they dont have to fund it then maybe it will be easier for them to decide to let it happen?
"Between Coolies and Port Macquarie, you have a single great point which is Lennox."
So, if SE Qld and Northern NSW are shithouse for surfers, what coastline would you consider to offer an abundances of A-grade locations with minimal crowds?
There are no options in Australia
Well, seems like it's a lost cause mate. Never realised Australia was such a terrible country for surfers.
Yip most people don't realise it
Hahah wow. Zero options.
"Between Coolies and Port Macquarie, you have a single great point which is Lennox" Shit mate - you don't get out much do you? I can think of half a dozen at least.
Why are you guys feeding into this maniac's delusions?
Name one other and don't say Angourie
Rockethut - I have a sneaking suspicion that if you drank less piss and got in the water a little more you might have a better perspective and better chance of getting a few more waves.
The beauty of the Gold Coast is the sheer quality of the waves. There is nowhere on the East Coast that even comes close in terms of consistency, variety, quality and user friendliness. Not to mention the fact that there is an abundance of work and places to live.
Within a couple of months of getting my licence waaaay back in the early 80's, me and a mate drove up to the Gold Coast from Vicco. Full of visions of surfing Kirra (amongst other spots up that way) just like we'd seen it in Tracks as grommets which was our only real knowledge of the place at that time.
2nd or 3rd day and there it is! 3- 5 foot tubing Kirra! Exactly how it looked in those grainy Tracks photos except one thing............there was well over 100 blokes out there! Paddle out anyhow and it's just the most aggro, hassly surf session ever with daylight 2nd. This was 1983. Talk about a reality check! Didn't hang round long and spent the rest of the trip in Nth NSW which was pretty good back then.
Back then in Vic 25 people out at Winki or Bells was a big crowd and they were (and still are) the busiest joints in the state. I just can't comprehend how your average punter rocks up there now and paddles out into that human soup thinking 'yeah....this'll be fun!'
I can't speak for the big cyclone swells but whenever I've been up in SE QLD/NNSW I've always scored at the points on the bread and butter trade swells. Offers a far superior ride to crowded and closeout Sydney! Sure I've had to wait my turn but some of these places I was genuinely surprised at the rides i have nabbed given the negativity here. Maybe I've just been in the right places at the right time.
Also would agree with Stu's comments - Ben and Craig call a spade a spade as far as I can tell. It's in their interest to do so in any case, given that if the forecast were consistently overhyped and overcalled we'd be off to the next surf website.
Ballina report is consistently over-called, except bizarrely on those few days when it;s genuinely large.
This weekend being a classic case in point. Sunday was called 4-6ft. It was nowhere near that.
That drives a lot of surfers down here when swell is unfavourable for SEQLD.
Same on the Gold Coast reports Freeride76. Often over-called, Majority of the time i figure its done off the cams looking at D-Bah only. I remember one of the last swells it was devil wind all day and the call was the wind had swung SW, the charts showed SW but being at the beach all day it stayed N-NW. The guy or girl responsible for the reports was 100% not at the beach.
Lots of over-hyped S swells too. The one over Easter was Exhibit A.
you moaning b*tches. If you really want something to complain about then move to the sunshine coast and surf year round 2ft closeouts. It'll make you appreciate the good things in life. including a 2ft closeout.
Growing up on the sunny coast, I can certainly sympathise with that! The place is a swell prison in winter-spring.
A few small peelers at Burleigh.
Saw that on dark at the Alley. Definitely some ENE lines coming in...dawny for sure
v.good babyfood day.
You gotta laugh at the sunny coast surf reporter, daily the morning reports fluctuate from under hyped to overhyped or vice versa in just over an hour on an extremely regular basis, he's off his head and needs a new appointment
I too have noticed this
I think the first one's just a guess based off data, whereas the second one is sighted.
Spent four weeks up there on uni holidays up untill monday just gone, very hard to get a guage on where the reporter was and what exactly he was looking at, as it rarely matched up with where I was surfing. Fuck it was fun up there, such good banks and some long lefts (Goofy). And the attitudes in the lineups were such a breath of fresh air compared to being back here on the GC!
Yeah the 3 general sections of coast (South/Mid/North) can vary quite greatly particularly at this time of year.
Yep, sure does. I surfed mainly mid & north and occasionally Neill Street when I had a hunch and the surf reports still confused me which made me all the more curious as to where he/she was and is.
Well I’ve certainly scored some fun waves off the last weekend swell, yeah everybody hates the Gc crowds & it’s certainly not getting better but if you pick your spots & times there’s quality waves to be had. I think the reports on here from ben & Craig are a great service that I’m happy to pay for. maybe you’d be better off spending more time at the beach actually surfing then online rants.....maybe you’d get more waves too but I’m not so sure about that
I’ve never even properly surfed the Goldie, but I’ve had a sticky beak at the breaks. Were I to rock up there on a half decent swell event and there were only 10 people in the water, I can easily imagine it would be the best surf off my life. The geography isn’t the issue, that’s for damn sure
Greenmount surfcam getting all abstract with the morning glare.
Small but stunning on the Sunny Coast.
A few lil' runners down the Superbank.
Those last three photos sum up the tale of two coasts. The reason I chose/choose one over the other