South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 24th July)

Best Days: Sat: building E/NE tending E'ly swells though with tricky winds (mainly onshore). Sun: punchy E'ly swells with light winds tending offshore (expect a delay in the south). Mon/Tues: strong though easing E'ly swells with offshore winds. Tues/Wed: building S'ly swells in Northern NSW. Later next week onwards: more strong E'ly and SE swells. 

Recap: Easing S/SE swells managed 2-3ft sets across the Gold Coast Thursday (smaller Sunshine Coast) and 3-4ft south from Byron. Today’s seen building S/SE groundswells across the Mid North Coast this afternoon (from 3ft to 3-4ft) whilst SE Qld has seen a steady mix of SE swells (including some new short range energy) in the 2-3ft range. Winds have been mainly S’ly across all northern coasts for the last few days, though the Mid North Coast was variable yesterday and SW today.

D'Bah looking fun this morning

This weekend (July 25 - 26)

There’s no major changes to the weekend forecast. 

The coastal trough responsible for all of this rain will probably form a small low into Saturday, which will then slowly track southwards into Sunday ahead of some explosive developments off the Southern NSW coast on Monday.

A strengthening E’ly fetch into the trough is generating building short range swells that will reach a peak in size late Sat/early Sun across SE Qld, though the peak (and indeed, the upwards phase of this event) will occur later with increasing southerly latitude. Surf size should peak in the 5-6ft range at most coasts with parts of Northern NSW (mainly the southern end) possibly seeing some bigger waves near 6-8ft into Sunday afternoon. 

More importantly, as the trough/low moves south, we’ll see an abrupt change in wind speeds and direction. This is is crucial for surf prospects as it’ll rapidly improve surf conditions: prior to then, we’re at a much greater risk of gusty onshore winds associated with the southern flank of the trough. 

At this stage, Saturday looks onshore for most regions. We may see pockets of light winds here and there but you’ll have to prepare for benign conditions in general. 

High res modelling has the Sunshine Coast seeing variable winds through Saturday afternoon, spreading to the Gold Coast overnight and then remaining Northern NSW coasts through Sunday morning. There won’t be much strength in the wind on Sunday so expect lumpy lineups but improving wave faces. The Mid North Coast is likely to see a later improvement in conditions, due to the timing of the trough/low’s southerly path.

Next week (July 27 onwards)

East Coast Low or Tasman Low? 

It currently looks like it’ll be the latter, but either way we’ve got a lot of swell and wind for early next week - however the most size will mainly favour Southern NSW (and it’ll be very windy too). 

The good news for our region is that we’ll see offshore westerly winds for a few days - a little gusty at times south from Ballina - and a broad ridge north of New Zealand should maintain moderate E’ly swells through the middle of the week. We’ll see a slow dip in size but Monday and Tuesday should see anywhere from 3ft throughout SE Qld to 4-5ft across the Mid North Coast. 

Large S’ly thru’ SE swells are expected in Southern NSW around this time but the fetch will be tucked in close to the mainland and we’ll consequently see a much smaller spread of size across Northern NSW. This energy is low confidence for our region but could build to 4-6ft at a handful of south facing beaches on the Mid North Coast later Tuesday and into Wednesday; I’m expecting a little less size north from here (and not much in SE Qld). 

The longer term charts look a little more exciting in my books.

Another tropical system is expected to develop in the lower Coral Sea around Wednesday, and it’ll eventually merge somewhere in the Tasman with an approaching front from the south (around Thursday).

The merge is of less interest than the supporting ridge to the north-east (see below), which looks like it’ll broaden and strengthen considerably, generating an excellent NE thru’ E/NE swell for later Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Additionally, we’ll see a rebuilding S/SE swell from a possible low forming in the central Tasman Sea as a result of the merge. 

As such the broader picture is for a strong renewal of sizeable swells from several key sources through the end of next week, next weekend and the start of thew following week. Bloody good for winter, eh?

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!