South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 22nd July)

Best Days: Thurs: smaller from the south, and clean early. Fri: reasonably solid though inconsistent pulse of new S/SE swell building across Northern NSW (smaller in SE Qld, and a late arrival). Sat/Sun: strong E/NE swell building across the coast, slightly wind affected Sat but improving rapidly Sun with winds becoming light/variable. Mon/Tues: strong combo of building S'ly (Northern NSW) and easing E/NE (everywhere) swell with gusty S/SW winds in the south, lighter W/SW in the north. 

Recap: Easing SE swells on Tuesday still managed to produce some fun waves across most coasts, around 2ft+ in SE Qld and 3ft+ across Northern NSW. Today’s new S’ly groundswell has fallen a little short of expectations south of the border, which is a little surprising given the swell source; a broad, strong winter frontal passage through the Tasman Sea, which produced impressive readings across the regional wave buoys. South facing beaches south of Byron only reached 4-5ft (against a forecast of 5-6ft+) though there were still some great waves on offer, including SE Qld where the outer Gold Coast points managed plenty of fun 2-3ft sets and 4ft at exposed northern ends (which was close to forecast expectations). Winds have remained out of the southern quadrant though there have been pockets of early SW winds.

Superbank offering small perfection this afternoon 

Fun lines at Kirra this afternoon

This week (July 23 - 24)

We’ve got more swell on the way, out of the S/SE, originating from a strong secondary front pushing through the lower Tasman Sea today. It’s a little off-axis and positioned further east but the fetch length is long and it’s also working on the active sea state generated by the previous system.

Surf size will ease a little more into Thursday from today, but should still manage 2ft+ sets across outer Gold Coast points, bigger at exposed northern ends but a little smaller in general on the Sunshine Coast. Early light winds will keep conditions clean though a redeveloping S’ly flow is expected throughout the day.

An anchored SE flow through the Coral Sea associated with a developing coastal trough may also supply some minor short range SE swell to open beaches for the next few days though no major size is expected.

South of the border we’re looking at similarly light morning winds and easing size from today, around 3-4ft at south facing beaches and smaller elsewhere.

On Friday, the new S/SE swell will push into the Mid North Coast early-mid morning, and then Far Northern NSW after lunch. We may be looking at a SE Qld arrival around early-mid afternoon. All locations will see the most size towards the end of the day though anywhere north from Ballina is at risk that it may not start to show any true size potential until very late.

This swell should reach a peak around 3-5ft range at south facing beaches south of Byron though it’ll be much smaller elsewhere. North of the border will see a mix of residual swells in the 2ft range ahead of the late pulse which could push 2-3ft at the outer Gold Coast points, and bigger at exposed northern ends and south facing beaches.

Friday’s main issue will be developing E’ly winds as the trough to the north starts to strengthen. Variable winds are expected early, and the complex, erratic nature of coastal troughs means some locations could see reasonable conditions all day. But if you had to hedge your bets, you’d have to anticipate a period of moderate to fresh easterlies at some point (centered around the Gold/Tweed/Byron coasts). We’ll also see a late increase in associated short range swell from this source.  

This weekend (July 25 - 26)

Looks like a dynamic weekend of waves ahead. 

First up - and of the least interest - the trailing fetch responsible for Friday’s swell will remain active south of New Zealand through Thursday and even into Friday morning which means we’ll see some kind of lingering S/SE swell all weekend. Saturday will see the most size with inconsistent 3ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron, smaller elsewhere including SE Qld. Wave heights will ease from this source into Sunday. 

However, conditions look a little dicey on Saturday. Freshening onshore winds associated with the trough will accompany building short range E’ly swells that should become quite solid late afternoon, holding into Sunday. 

The most interesting synoptic feature this weekend is the trough’s rapid southward track along the coast, whilst maintaining a broad E/NE fetch east out into the Tasman Sea and South Pacific. This means we’ll see building size into Sunday as winds become light and variable. 

Winds will likely become most favourable across far northern locations (i.e. Sunshine Coast) first, and this could happen as early as Saturday afternoon, but Sunday is a more likely time to work around.

Sunday looks to deliver good winds almost everywhere now but there will be a lag on these favourable developments in the south (i.e. Mid North Coast) so the early session may still be weirdly wind affected, the further south you are. 

As for size, we’re looking at the most size in the south (i.e. Mid North Coast), with Saturday starting off in the 2-3ft range but Sunday afternoon possibly pushing north of 6ft to maybe 6-8ft at exposed spots by the end of the day. There could be a period of step-ladder increases through Sunday.

Wave heights will peak a little smaller as you track north, of which we’ll see a slightly less impressive size range across SE Qld, building from 3-4ft early Saturday to 5-6ft on Sunday. But, there'l be some really nice waves around.

Let’s firm up the specifics on Friday’s update. 

Next week (July 27 onwards)

The models are still holding strong with a possible ECL or Tasman Low developing off the NSW coast by Monday.

However as this low will be embedded within a broad coastal trough, extending a ridge eastwards into the North Tasman Sea and South Pacifc Ocean, we’ll continue to see persistent E/NE swells through next week. Size will ease back from Sunday’s peak but should maintain 3-5ft throughout SE Qld and Far Northern NSW on Monday, with bigger surf south from Byron, reaching 6-8ft across the Mid North Coast. A furthewr decrease in size from this source is expected into Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Concurrent S’ly swells will also building along the NSW coast on Monday thanks to the effects of the developing low off the Southern NSW coast. The models are not yet firm on a solution but even if it’s sizeable, the acute swell direction won’t favour a lot of locations for quality waves. And there’ll be a lot of wind from the S/SW, strongest across the Mid North Coast but lighter in the north, tending SW or even W’ly in SE Qld.

So, expect a wide range of surf size and conditions right across our region early next week. 

Looking further ahead, and lingering instability through the Tasman Sea is expected to maintain a conducive environment for another cluster of low pressure systems extending south from the Coral Sea into the western Tasman later next week, which will be something to keep a close eye on.

Regardless, we’re likely to see a broad, stationary E’ly fetch between New Zealand and New Caledonia/Fiji maintaining at least moderate E’ly swells through next weekend and beyond.

Certainly fantastic period of winter swell to get stuck into.

See you Friday!