South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 18th May)

Best Days: Most days should have fun waves, with a couple of windows of really good options. 

Recap: E’ly swells dominated the weekend, holding 4-5ft at many exposed spots Saturday, easing a little to 3-4ft+ Sunday and maintaining 3ft+ sets today. The most noticeable difference each day was in the quality - Saturday saw jumbly surf thanks to the presence of a short range S’ly wind swell and mid-range SE swell from the Tasman Sea, whilst Sunday was a little better lined up. Today has seen the quality drop right out, not assisted much by the presence of periodic onshore winds. But the southern/semi-exposed points have still delivered some good waves. 

The Pass showing some form today, following early morning wobbles

This week (May 19 - 22)

First up - local winds.

The coastal ridge responsible for the last few days of gusty conditions is weakening, so we’ll see more surf options start to open up as winds start to relax.

The main synoptic feature on the cards (for local winds) is a developing Tasman Low off Southern NSW on Thursday which will push gusty southerlies across Northern NSW (and eventually SE Qld) into Friday. 

Prior to then, most locations should see morning variable winds and afternoon sea breezes. Tuesday is an exception for the Sunny Coast (which is closest to the ridge and will probably still be under its influence, under moderate to fresh S’ly tending S/SE winds) and Wednesday has a northerly risk across Northern NSW, with SE Qld at risk of northerlies on Thursday. Otherwise, there’ll be pockets of clean surf, mainly in the mornings.

As for surf, the weekend’s E'ly source is still active way out past New Zealand, though it has just started to rotate out of our swell window so we should see some form of E’ly energy through until the weekend. The fetch has greadually retreated to the east over the coming days which means the swell it generates will be even less consistent than what we’ve seen over the last few days. 

But there are other swells on the way too. A building ridge through the Tasman Sea right now will produce a nice mid-range E’ly swell for all coasts, that will fill in the gaps of the more distant, inconsistent E’ly swell. And the ridge pushing through the Coral Sea right now is also generating some small short range energy for SE Qld. 

So, as for size, we’re looking at Tuesday seeing inconsistent 2-3ft sets across most coasts before a very late arrival of longer period energy (confidence is low on the timing) that will probably show best on Wednesday and Thursday. Set waves should push somewhere between 3ft and maybe 5ft at exposed beaches (smaller running down the points), but I really have to stress that the it’ll be extremely inconsistent - there might only be one or two sets every half an hour at the upper end. 

Fortunately, the mid-range E’ly swell from the Tasman ridge should fill in the gaps nicely, with 3ft sets at most open beaches. So, if you’re surfing a reliable swell magnet on Wed/Thurs, expect most of your surfing to happen in this size range, with occasional bombs to keep you on your toes. It’ll be smaller across the regional points. 

Friday should see both easterly swell sources start to ease, though the main influence on the surf will be the developing southerly breeze. This will confine the best waves to sheltered points, where the surf will be a little smaller (and, with a lack of consistency, less able to handle crowds). Early morning should have good beachies in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW (before the wind really starts to strengthen).

New S’ly swell from the Tasman Low should start to reach the Mid North Coast later Friday but I’m not totally sold on its position, relative to Northern NSW’s swell prospects - it could be another system that favours Southern NSW, whilst the Hunter Bight shadows coastlines to the north (see chart below). I’ll have a better understanding of that in Wednesday’s update. 

But! At some stage on Friday, the regional wave buoys are expected to pick up the leading edge of several long period pulses, originating from a succession of broad polar lows traversing the waters well SW of Tasmania over the coming days (see below). Swell periods will reach 18 seconds from this source, and in its own right could produce 4-5ft sets at south facing beaches (probably south of Coffs) late in the day. This swell will appear more convincingly across Northern NSW on Saturday. 

This weekend (May 23 - 24)

There’s a bit of divergence between models as to how the synoptics will play out this weekend. Specifically, the US solution has - in addition to the Tasman Low - an ECL developing off SE Qld that the European solution doesn’t. 

As such we need to be cautious on assessing the model output (I’m not confident on the ECL), and I’m also still not totally confident as to whether then Tasman Low will properly favour anywhere north of Seal Rocks. Because, with a locally gusty southerly airstream likely both days, we’ll need a lot of size to get into the protected locations.

So, let’s put a rain check on the ECL and the Tasman Low for now, because there are a couple of other swell sources that will keep us active anyways. 

First of all, the long period S’ly swell should maintain 4-5ft sets at south swell magnets south of Byron on Saturday before easing Sunday. 

Probably my most favourite swell source for this weekend is another surface trough developing north of New Zealand later this week - in almost the same location as the source for the last round of E’ly swell Fri/Sat. This looks like it could again produce 4-5ft sets at open beaches, smaller running down the points. 

And lastly, a small E/NE swell may push into the region, originating from the northerly infeed into the eastern flank of the broader Tasman Low. There won’t be much size associated with this fetch but it’s worth noting anyway.

Next week (May 25 onwards)

At this stage I’m expecting the Tasman Low to meander to our south, well into the start of next week, which suggests southerly thru’ south-easterly swells are possible through until the middle of next week. But, this is looking at a lot better for Southern NSW than it is for Northern NSW.

Our weekend E’ly swell source looks like it’ll be slow moving and should continue to supply good quality, though distant (and thus inconsistent) E’ly swells through the first half of next week too.

Of course, the synoptics are lighting up with the ECL from Sunday onwards but it’s simply too early to tell if we’ll see anything of note. But I’ll certainly be keeping a close watch on things over the coming days. 

See you Wednesday!