South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 8th May)

Best Days: Most days should have fun surf. Early Sat/Sun for the best conditions. Windy from Sun PM onwards for a few days but there'll be options. 

Recap: We’ve seen some really nice waves over the last few days. Thursday saw initially strong 3ft+ sets at south facing beaches, being easing S/SE swell from Wednesday, but also in the mix was a peaky E’ly swell across SE Qld with 2-3ft+ sets throughout SE Qld, and smaller surf south from about Byron. The S’ly swell eased right back today though a new S’ly groundswell glanced the coast this morning (reaching the Crowdy Head buoy at 9am with Tp of 16 seconds). We haven’t seen much size from this source but the E’ly swell has maintained 2-3ft sets across exposed parts of SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with smaller surf south from Byron. 

Early Friday peelers at The Pass

.. before turning into a good venue for afternoon sand sculptures

Fun beachies at Narrowneck

Small runners at Noosa

Late afternoon peaks at Coolum

This weekend (May 9 - 10)

A front will approach from the south on Saturday, freshening N’ly winds across most coasts throughout the day - though we should see early NW winds in many spots. Winds will be strongest south from Ballina, but either way you’ll be best off aiming for a morning surf to avoid the risk of your beach being bumped up.

The good news is that the ridge responsible for our current E’ly swell is holding nicely - in actual fact, it’s expected to restrengthen north of New Zealand over the weekend, and will likely provide surf through all of next week.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. 

The weekend should see inconsistent 2-3ft surf across exposed coasts both days. Just like today, there’ll be very long breaks between sets but it’ll be well worth capitalising on Saturday morning across any wide open beach (most points will become wind affected at some point, even if it’s light to moderate in strength).

As the front pushes up the coast on Sunday, we’ll see winds swing from the W/NW to the W (in northern regions) then SW ahead of an afternoon S’ly. As such mosts coasts should have early options but it may be a narrow window south of Yamba. 

We can expect the S’ly change to reach the border around lunchtime though it may stall enroute to the Sunshine Coast (so light winds are a possibility here into the afternboon). 

We’ve also got some southerly swell in the water for the weekend too. 

Locally, W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait later Saturday and early Sunday in conjunction with passing frontal systems will generate some shorty range S’ly swell. The first pulse (Sun arvo, MNC only) won’t have much size - just 1-2ft at south facing beaches - but the second, stronger front will provide a bigger swell for Monday. 

However, the most dominant south swell of the weekend will be from a more unusual source. 

The same low responsible for today’s small flukey south swell (in Northern NSW) consolidated nicely south of New Zealand yesterday (just off the ice shelf) and displayed storm force S/SW winds aimed into the south-eastern Tasman Sea. This wasn’t ideally aligned for our region, but we should see a spread of swell back into the entire NSW coast, resulting in a building S/SE groundswell later Saturday towards a peak throughout Sunday.

Now, the timing on this event is not clear, and neither are the projected surf sizes, but we should see the first signs of an upwards trend late afternoon Saturday across the Mid North Coast, with possible 2-3ft+ sets at south swell magnets. Sunday should see a peak around 3-4ft at south facing beaches south of Byron, and it’ll be smaller throughout SE Qld - though of course, you’ll be racing to beat the southerly wind change. Hopefully it’ll combine with the E’ly swell to provide nice beachies. 

So, the mornings look best for local conditions. There’ll be waves at all beaches, and if you’re on the Mid North Coast, keep an eye out for the sneaky S/SE swell late Saturday. 

Next week (May 11 onwards)

A strong ridge will develop along the coast early next week, keeping us in fresh southerlies for a few days. This will limit rideable options to protected southern ends and sheltered points. 

Sunday’s frontal passage should provide a full day of solid southerly swell across south facing beaches in Northern NSW, around 3-5ft. Elsewhere it’ll be smaller, including SE Qld. Size will then ease steadily through Tuesday. 

There’ll also be some longer period energy in the mix, from the parent low SW of Tasmania on Saturday - so this will provide higher Tp values at the wave buoys but ultimately probably won't contribute a great deal of size (relatively to the mid-range, post-frontal activity).

However, we have more E’ly swell on the way, as mentioned above. A small sub tropical low is currently forming mid-way between Fiji and New Caledonia at the tail end of the ridge responsible for the current E’ly swell, and it’ll intensify nicely north of New Zealand over the weekend (see below). 

The models have upgraded the strength and breadth of this system and also slowed its E/SE track, keeping it a little better in the swell window. As such, our swell prospects have improved since Wednesday's notes (though the models aren’t really picking it up, which is odd). 

Monday and Tuesday should see persistent though inconsistent E’ly swells in the 2-3ft range, before the stronger energy arrives sometime Wednesday and sees surf size pulse up into the 3-4ft+ range, holding through Thursday (though equally inconsistent).

Ultimately this low will drift into the NZ swell shadow resulting in a downwards trend at some point, so I’ll take another pass on Monday as the models should have consolidated its forward track. But, I like the look of this event and as long as local winds behave - which they should by Wednesday - we'll see some nice waves.  

Also in the mix next week will be a small sideband SE swell from a mid-Tasman ridge on Monday/Tuesday (in the lee of Sunday’s change). It won’t generate much size for our region (as it’ll be aimed into New Caledonia) but this may assist by filling in the lengthy gaps of the inconsistent E’ly swell later Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Looking further ahead and a powerful polar low will track NE from a position south of SA on Monday, into the lower Tasman Sea by Wednesday, generating strong though acute S’ly swells for Northern NSW sometime around Thursday and Friday. Early indications are for reliable south swell magnets to pick up 3-5ft sets though I’ll fine tune this outlook on Monday. 

Have a great weekend!