South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 4th May)

Best Days: Tues/Wed: easing S'ly then reinforcing S/SE swells, biggest in Northern NSW, small in SE Qld, improving winds (mainly Wed). Wed onwards: small E'ly swell (biggest SE Qld), holdingthrough into the weekend. Fri/Sat/Sun/Mon: chance for a (series of) small flukey S'ly swells at south swell magnets south of Byron. 

Recap: Saturday and Sunday offered fun beachbreaks across most coasts with inconsistent but nicely lined up east swell around 2-3ft. A S’ly change pushed across the region during Sunday, bumping up open beaches after lunch (earlier across the Mid North Coast) and a new S’ly swell reached 5-6ft at south facing beaches south of Port Macquarie by the end of the day. This swell then spread across remaining coasts overnight, and has held its size all day (if anything, peaking this afternoon), with 5-6ft sets south of Byron and smaller 3ft waves across SE Qld’s open beaches and outer points. Winds were early SW but are now around to the south across most coasts. 

Slow action at Currumbin today

Monday morning lines at The Pass

Monday dawn patrol at Snapper

D'Bah shape earlier this morning

This week (May 5 - 8)

Going on the swell trend in Southern NSW today - which managed 6ft sets in Sydney and 8ft bombs in Newcastle - there won’t be any shortage of south swell tomorrow. Though, the trend will be steadily down. 

The main issue we have is a persistent southerly wind thanks to a coastal ridge of high pressure. Many locations should see early SW winds but it’ll veer S’ly of fresh strength during the morning, and this will confine the best waves to sheltered locations.

South facing beaches south of Byron should manage 4-6ft sets early in the day, easing to 3-4ft by the afternoon (smaller elsewhere) and we’ll see a similar size loss throughout SE Qld from 2-3ft+ (exposed northern ends/south facing beaches), with slightly smaller waves at the outer points, and tiny surf across the inner points. 

But, there is some new swell on the way.

A strong front racing through the lower Tasman Sea today will provide a reinforcing S/SE swell for Wednesday. In fact, this system looks a little stronger than last week’s model runs estimated, though it’s running a little behind schedule so there’s a delay on its arrival. 

The new reinforcing S/SE swell should reach the Far South NSW Coast very late Tuesday afternoon, and then build across Northern NSW through the early hours of Wednesday morning, peaking into the afternoon. We may see a small, temporary dip in size early morning before size rebounds back up to 3-4ft+ at south facing beaches (south of Byron) by the afternoon. Expect a delay on this new energy in the Far North. 

Much lighter winds are expected on Wednesday in Northern NSW as the coastal ridge weakens, so conditions should be greatly improved. 

SE Qld will not pick up as much size from this swell, and I am a little worried that it may arrive too late to be totally beneficial (especially across the Sunshine Coast, which will lag by an hour or two on the Gold Coast). Still, the late session has some promise for inconsistent 2ft+ waves across the outer points, closer to 3ft+ at exposed northern ends. It’ll be smaller through the morning though. And, we’ll still be under the influence of the ridge here on Wednesday so exposed locations will be bumpy (early SW winds likely in a few locations i.e. southern Gold Coast). 

Also in the water across SE Qld on Wednesday will be a building E/SE swell from a strengthening ridge through the Coral Sea. This should maintain peaky 2-3ft waves across outer points and open beaches probably through until the weekend. However surf size will slowly drop off from this source as you head south from Byron.

Otherwise, Northern NSW will see smaller surf to finish the week.

Wednesday’s S/SE swell will ease through Thursday (early 3ft+ south facing beaches south of Byron, smaller elsewhere), before easing to 2ft through the day, and a little smaller into Friday. We’ll see clean morning conditions ahead of afternoon sea breezes, of which Friday’s winds could become a little gusty across the Mid North Coast. 

As a side note, the leading edge of a long period S’ly swell will nose into Northern NSW on Friday (probably the afternoon), generated by an intense though poorly aligned low south-west of Tasmania over the coming days (see below). This system looks incredible on the synoptics but it’s tracking through a really tricky part of the swell window, and I don’t think we’ll see much energy from it. However if the wave buoys spike to 18 seconds you’ll know where it came from. At best south swell magnets south of Byron may pick up a stray 2-3ft set every half an hour but it’s not worth banking on.

This weekend (May 9 - 10)

The ridge responsible for our easterly swell this week will weaken from Thursday, and a small tropical low embedded at the tail end will shift to the east. This has some potential for a new pulse of E’ly swell early next week but the weekend’s surf prospects look to be gradually easing both days. If we're lucky early Saturday may see some 2-3ft sets but it'll abate to a slow 2ft during the day, and hold this size into Sunday morning before easing a little more into the afternoon.

As for our southern swell window, the low responsible for Friday’s flukey pulse - if it eventuates - looks to broaden considerably as it passes below the Tasman Sea (see below). Although poorly aligned for our swell window, it should generate a small spread of S/SE swell back up into Northern NSW this weekend. I’ll cap wave heights at an inconsistent 2ft+ from this source and keep my expectations pretty low. 

Elsewhere, a strong frontal sequence will approach Tasmania and we’ll see new S’ly swells from the usual suspect swell windows - W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait on Saturday, generating a small S’ly swell for the Mid North Coast Sunday afternoon, and then a long period S’ly swell from the parent low (SW of Tasmania) that will probably arrive early next week. 

Again, this will all be flukey, peripheral stuff and absolutely shouldn’t be lodged into the calendar as they’re such low percentage events. But, they’ll be worth keeping an eye on.

Winds look to be good on Saturday but a S’ly change is pegged for Sunday at the moment. 

Next week (May 11 onwards)

The tropical low mentioned above may generate some new E’ly swell for next week but at this stage I’m not really happy with the storm track, nor the travel distance.  

Otherwise, a continuation of flukey S’ly (and S/SE) swells from the aforementioned weekend sources will persist through the start of next week. No major size is likely though it’ll only take a small longitudinal shift in the storm track to beef up our prospects. 

See you Wednesday!