South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 27th April)

Best Days: Tues: small mix of E'ly and S'ly swell, with light winds. Wed: early light winds north from Byron, small building E'ly swells. N'ly winds likely to become a problem south of Byron. Thurs: peaky mix of E'ly (both coasts) and NE (Northern NSW) swells with a late W'ly change on the Mid North Coast (winds likely to spoil things north from Coffs). Fri/Sat: offshore winds, fun E'ly swells both days and a building S'ly swell into the weekend. Sun: large S'ly swell for Northern NSW, much smaller in SE Qld, easing from Mon onwards. 

Recap: Small flukey south swells graced the Northern NSW coast over the weekend though there wasn’t much size around, just the odd 1-2ft set tops. A small E’ly swell started to show in SE Qld on Sunday and it’s managed slow 1-2ft sets today. Winds have been generally light so conditions have been clean. A small new S’ly swell also pushed up along the Mid North Coast this afternoon, having reached 3-4ft in Sydney today. 

Tucked in behind the rock early this morning

Just getting some exercise, sir

This week (Apr 28 - May 1) 

We’ve got some fun E’ly swell on the way. But you’ll have to work around the winds. 

A developing high in the Tasman Sea is broadening an E’ly fetch through the South Pacific, and as a result we’ll see surf size build over the coming days towards a peak around Thursday. We’ll actually see E’ly swells persist from Friday through the weekend, probably of a similar size as Thursday, but from mid-week onwards the bulk fetch will move slowly to the east - still at strength - which will reduce the consistency of the surf across our region due to the longer travel distance. 

Expect smaller waves through Tuesday (though slowly on the build) with Wednesday likely to reach 2-3ft at exposed beaches, and Thursday a smidge bigger (say, 2-3ft+). It'll be best suited to the wide open, self-isolating beachbreaks. 

Unfortunately, Thursday’s peak in size across SE Qld will be marred by strengthening northerly winds as a significant cold outbreak pushes across the eastern states. In fact, parts of the Northern NSW coast (mainly Mid North Coast) will see these winds kick in sometime on Wednesday so you’ll have to capitalise on Tuesday and (maybe) early Wednesday for the best conditions.

Tuesday will also see some small S’ly swell from today’s swell. It’ll only favour south facing beaches south of Byron, and the sets will be a little slow but should manage 2-3ft at times. 

The strengthening northerly flow on Thursday will concurrently generate some local NE windswell for Northern NSW (biggest south from Yamba) and the afternoon could be worth closer investigation, as we’re expecting a mid-morning W’ly change across Southern NSW that could reach parts of the Mid North Coast into the afternoon. With potentially 3ft+ of peaky E’ly and NE swell in the water, there could be some fun waves for the late session.

Friday then looks to offer moderate to fresh W/SW winds across all coasts and a peaky mix of rapidly easing NE swell and a more dominant (though inconsistent) E’ly swell, somewhere in the 2-3ft+ range at most beaches. There’s a chance for a fresh S’ly swell late afternoon across the Lower Mid North Coast - from W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait - but the weekend is a more likely recipient.

This weekend (May 2 - 3)

The broad scale pattern for the forecast period will be characterised by an amplifying upper level long wave trough across the eastern states. This will be responsible for the mid-week N’ly winds and then the late Thurs/Fri W’ly wind change.

The LWT will push further east on Friday, allowing a series of surface fronts to properly enter our south swell window from that time onwards, generating large southerly swells for the NSW coast this weekend. 

The general surf outlook is for moderate to fresh W’ly tending SW winds on Saturday and then SW tending S’ly winds on Sunday. 

It’s too early to pin down size specifics, but wave heights should reach 6ft+ at south facing beaches south of Byron by Sunday (smaller prior to this). Elsewhere it’ll be a lot smaller, thanks to the strong southerly swell component in the direction, and SE Qld will be at least half the size - though there should be enough for some small waves across the outer points. 

Also keep in mind that we’ll see a fun though very inconsistent E’ly swell somewhere in the 2-3ft+ range both days. So, there won’t be any shortage of surf, and you’ll just have to work around the winds. 

Next week (May 4 onwards)

Solid but gradually easing southerly swells looks to be on the menu for the first half of next week, along with small, easing E’ly swells.

A poorly aligned sub-tropical local east of New Zealand later this week won't do anything for us.. thought it looks nice on the synoptics in single snapshots. A series of systems much further east (just prior) are better aligned but too distant to generate any meaningful size for the Austrsalian East Coast (though we'll see small, intermittent energy next week from this region).

In any case, there’s nothing of any interest standing out on the long range charts right now.  

See you Wednesday!