South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 24th April)

Best Days: Mon onwards: slowly building E'ly swell, initially small and clean, with the most size from Wed though winds will be dicey here into Thurs AM. Clean and best from Thurs PM onwards. Tues: fun S'ly swell south of Byron. 

Recap: Thursday was tiny across every coast. Late afternoon saw a minor increase in S’ly swell across the Mid North Coast, but it didn’t fill in properly until this morning, with 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches, and much smaller surf elsewhere. North from here was a little smaller with 2ft+ sets through to about Byron Bay, and there wasn’t much reported throughout SE Qld, just a stray 1ft wave at exposed northern ends. Winds have been light through the mornings so conditions have been clean, with weak afternoon sea breeze bumping up exposed spots. 

Lovely small southerly lines at Coffs this morning

This weekend (Apr 25 - 26)

In general we’ve got a pretty lacklustre weekend ahead in the surf department. 

The current S/SE swell will ease rapidly overnight so we'll see minor residual energy at south facing beaches south of Byron, maybe some 1-2ft sets if we’re lucky. Elsewhere will be tiny to flat, including much of SE Qld (maybe a few stray waves at exposed northern ends). 

A series of powerful storms below the continent are very poor in their alignment, and although they’re generating large westerly swells for Tasmania and New Zealand, very little energy is expected to bend up along the NSW coast. 

Exposed south swell magnets south of Byron may see infrequent sets glance the region but for the most part we’re looking at minor energy each day. South facing beaches may see occasional 1-2ft waves but I really wouldn’t recommend much effort looking for surf this weekend.

SE Qld may see a small increase in average, short range trade swell on Sunday afternoon, thanks to a strengthening ridge through the Coral Sea on Saturday, but I’d be surprised if it reached much more than 1-2ft across the Sunshine Coast, with smaller surf as you track south from the Gold Coast. Expect Sunday morning to be undersized. 

As for conditions, light winds and weak sea breezes are expected north from Byron both days. Saturday will pan out the same across Northern NSW but there’s a risk of a freshening northerly flow on Sunday. So, protected northern corners will offer the best conditions (if you’re grovelling about). 

Next week (Apr 27 onwards) 

The ridge through the Coral Sea will broaden across the Northern Tasman Sea and out into the South Pacific next week. This will slowly build E’ly swells from Monday (1-2ft) to Wednesday (2-3ft), with an intermittent supply of E’ly swell expected to maintain inconsistent 2-3ft+ sets across exposed beaches from Thursday through much of the weekend. 

Not all days will see workable waves - we’ll have to work around the winds, and there’ll be slack periods of energy in the mix - but it is looking like a reasonable, extended spell of small easterly swell for the region, which should keep most exposed coasts active. 

Rather than hone in on the best days, it looks easier to identify the potential bad windows - which appear to be Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning (under a pre-frontal northerly risk). Otherwise, we’ll see light winds through the start of the week and then NW tending W’ly winds from Thursday into Friday, holding through the weekend. 

As for our southern swell window, another strong front will cross Tasmania on Sunday, and it’ll push through the lower Tasman Sea late in the day, generating a fresh southerly swell for late Monday (Mid North Coast) and remaining Northern NSW coasts on Tuesday. The models were initially keen on this pattern (last Monday), then weakened their outlook on Wednesday but have since come back to their original standing. So, we have a fun south swell on the way to start the working week.

It’ll be a short lived swell and may be adversely affected by an associated shallow southerly change (lower Mid North Coast), but most south facing beaches should push up somewhere in the 2-3ft+ range at south swell magnets south of Byron. There’ll actually be two swells in the mix, an initial short range pulse and then some longer period energy; the latter of which looks the best for Northern NSW. I wouldn’t get too excited about Monday but Tuesday is worth flagging for your favourite south swell magnet. 

This small south swell will then throttle right back into Wednesday leaving the E’ly swell as the dominant energy.

We’ve also got another significant development of the Long Wave Trough in store for our region, but unfortunately the latest model runs have stalled this pattern over Victoria, consequently shutting down our south swell window for a few days. 

There is still some long term potential for solid southerly swells - more likely next weekend andante the start of the following week - but given the big swings in the last few model runs we should be very cautious on the output at this point in time. So, let’s check in on Monday to see how it’s all panning out beyond Wednesday.

Have a great weekend!