South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 22nd April)

Best Days: Late Thurs (MNC) and early Fri (Northern NSW): small S'ly swell with generally light winds. Mon onwards: slowly building trade swell all week, biggest Wed-Fri (no major size though). Next Thurs onwards: chance for a few days of solid southerly swell. 

Recap: Tuesday still managed to throw up a few leftover 3ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron, though it was much smaller elsewhere and size faded through there day, with tiny conditions on offer today. Conditions have been clean in the mornings with light winds ahead of afternoon sea breezes. 

Still some leftover sets at D'Bah Tuesday morning

This week (Apr 21 - 24)

Although the charts look terribly uninspiring for the next few days, I still think we’ll see a small flush of south swell across Northern NSW to finish the working week. Unfortunately, SE Qld is looking very small for quite some time.

The responsible low/front is crossing Tasmania right now, with pre-frontal NW tending W/NW winds gusting 65kts at Maatsuyker Island, off its South Coast. There are two swells sources from this system (see below) - the primary low under Tasmania, and also a secondary W/SW fetch exiting eastern Bass Strait. 

Both fetches have strong westerly components, so the end result of the weekend’s south swells (just gone) will be a useful proxy for just how erratic the spread of swell will be across the entire NSW coast - except there’ll be a lot less size. 

Thursday will start off very small, in fact I’m not expecting the leading edge of either swell to reach the Far North Coast until very late in the day at the earliest - probably overnight - so only the Mid North Coast is on track for an afternoon increase in size, before the swell peaks under the cover of darkness and then gradually eases through Friday. 

South facing beaches south of Byron should see max surf size in the 2ft to very rarely 2-3ft range, and it’ll be tiny to flat elsewhere. Locations north of about Coffs probably won’t see much action until Friday morning, and north of the border will remain tiny both days (south swell magnets on the Gold Coast may see 1-2ft sets Friday if we’re lucky.)

Sometimes the backside of these swells provide a slightly broader coverage of size (as the swell direction veers fractionally counter-clockwise, and the swell periods drop back a few seconds) but in any case set waves will be inconsistent and abating at this time (Friday morning), and are only likely to favour reliable south swell magnets south of the border at best. 

Conditions will be clean through the mornings with light winds but light to moderate sea breezes are possible through the afternoons. 

This weekend (Apr 25 - 26)

No change to the weekend forecast. 

SE Qld will remain very small both days, though a strengthening ridge through the Coral Sea from Friday through Saturday may generate a minor E’ly swell for Sunday (biggest on the Sunshine Coast with weak 1-2ft sets, smaller south from the Gold Coast).

Otherwise in Northern NSW, most beaches will remain tiny to flat as an active storm track below the continent remains very zonal in alignment (west-east). 

That being said, the strength of the fetch associated with these systems will be considerable and they’ll generate a large swell through the Southern Ocean that will just glance the extremities of the NSW coast. Slow, intermittent 1-2ft sets are possible at some south facing beaches both days, but it’s really not worth worrying about. 

Local conditions look clean everywhere on Saturday but freshening northerlies are expected south from Ballina on Sunday as a front approaches from the west. 

Next week (Apr 27 onwards) 

The trades will slowly freshen through next week, and extend from the Coral Sea back out into the south-western Pacific Ocean. Although no great strength is likely, we’ll see a gradual increase in size from Monday (1-2ft) to Wednesday (2-3ft), holding around the 2-3ft+ mark into Friday or maybe Saturday. Surf size may be a little smaller across the Mid North Coast from this source.

Overall it doesn't look like a great source of swell but it will keep most open beaches active with waves. Light winds are expected early in the week but freshening northerlies may ruin conditions sometime from Wednesday through Wednesday. Let’s take a closer look on Friday to hone in on possible windows of opportunity. 

Looking further south, and a continuation of a strong zonal flow through the Southern Ocean from the weekend onwards will maintain small intermittent south swells for Northern NSW early next week. The best looking system will pass below Tasmania on Sunday generating a pulse for Monday afternoon but there’s been a weakening in the latest model runs so I don’t think there’ll be anything to get excited about. 

However, there are some indications of a solid swell event mid-late next week, thanks to an amplifying node of the Long Wave Trough across the eastern states around Wednesday that will concurrently deepen a large polar low south of Tasmania, and also drive intense fronts through the Tasman Sea from Thursday onwards (see below). 

This has the potential for a significant southerly swell event - perhaps lasting three days from Thursday through Saturday, but we will need quite a few more days to hone in on the specifics.

See you Friday!