South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 30th December)

Best Days: Plenty of surf for the entire period, but local N/NE winds will greatly affect wave quality south from Ballina (it'll still influence surf conditions elsewhere, but not to the same degree).

Recap: Fun trade swells have dominated the last few days, holding 3ft across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with slightly smaller surf south from Yamba. Winds have been light and variable through the mornings, and moderate onshore into the afternoon (though fresh NE winds have been reported across the Mid North Coast). Today has seen a slight strengthening of easterly swell, as the first round of cyclone swell from TC Sarai makes landfall, sets of 4ft have been reported up and down the Far Northern NSW and SE Qld coasts. Interestingly, there’s no discernible change in trend across the spectral data buoys (see Tweed, below). Winds have been relatively light all day in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, but we’re seeing freshening NE winds across the Mid North Coast again.

Lotsa lumpy lines at the Superbank

Looking fun at Surfers Paradise

No significant trends standing out on the Tweed spectral buoy, to account for today's pulse

This week (Dec 31 - Jan 3)

So, with cyclone swell starting to push through the region on schedule, we have to make a call whether to follow model guidance or not.

At the moment, despite TC Sarai being a distant system with a poorly aligned core fetch, I am still of the opinion that there are more positives than negatives associated with this event. The strongest flank of the cyclone is aimed towards Vanuatu, but there’s still a reasonable E’ly fetch on its southern side that's moved very little over the last few days (with a similar forecast through the middle of this week).

We’re likely to see swell energy pulse intermittently from this source over the next four or five days, with maximum energy likely Tuesday afternoon and early Wednesday, and then again at some point on Thursday (either side of these peaks, expect smaller surf, especially Friday). 

Our model still isn’t really liking this system but I’m going to hold steady with my expectation that peak surf heights this week will offer occasional 4-6ft sets at exposed beaches - mainly Far Northern NSW - with smaller surf elsewhere, including the regional points. And it'll be very inconsistent too, thanks to the large travel distance.

As for local conditions, there’s no change to the expectation for a dominant, gusty N/NE flow for the next six days (until Sunday afternoon). This synoptic flow will be most pronounced across the Mid North Coast, and wind speeds will become lighter as you head north - of which SE Qld and Far Northern NSW could see variable periods most mornings. The broader regional airstream will become lighter Thurs/Fri as the responsible Tasman high breaks down, ahead of a brand new high settling in for the weekend, so this will probably offer the ‘best’ conditions of the week. 

As a side note, we’re already seeing some decent cold upwelling across the Mid North Coast and this may encroach parts of Far Northern NSW as the week progresses (mainly south from Byron). So, keep a vest or springy at the ready!

This weekend (Jan 4-5)

TC Sarai will track outside of our swell window by Wednesday so the weekend will see a further easing trend. And with synoptic northerlies picking up in strength again, it’s not looking good for most locations.

We’ll see windows of light morning winds in SE Qld and maybe Far Northern NSW, and with the open beaches easing from 3-4ft to 2-3ft during Saturday you’ll have to aim for a morning surf for the most size and best conditions. Expect smaller waves into Sunday with similar winds. We will probably see slightly smaller surf south from Yamba too, though it's looking to be quite wind affected here.

SE Qld may see a small underlying trade swell from a redeveloping fetch in the lower Coral Sea over the weekend but it’ll be much smaller than the pre-existing trade swell. 

Next week (Jan 6 onwards)

An intense mid-latitude Southern Ocean low will track below Tasmania over the weekend, though it’ll reach maximum strength as it rotates out of our swell window. As such, we’re looking at a small spread of S’ly swell from Monday through Tuesday, that should favour south facing beaches south of Byron with occasional 3ft waves. I’m not expecting much surf in SE Qld from this source, away from exposed northern ends. 

Even better - a stalled trough off Southern NSW will at least disrupt the northerly flow, and could result in light variable winds for a few days.  We need a little more time to validate this outlook though.

We’ll probably see some small residual E’ly swell throughout SE Qld early next week though no major size is expected.

Otherwise, this lingering troughiness to the south the coast has potential for another local system to develop in the Tasman Sea next week, though there's no clear indication of how that may eventuate (and which coast any resulting swell would favour). In any case, there’s not shortage of surf ahead. 

See you Wednesday!