South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 18th December)

Best Days: Thurs: get in early for light winds and the tail end of S/SE swell (biggest in Northern NSW, only small in SE Qld). Sat: early small clean waves at open beaches, best in Northern NSW. Mon/Tues/Wed: strong S'ly swells, though winds unsure at this stage. Wed onwards: small, fun though inconsistent E'ly swell. 

Recap: Tuesday morning delivered small swells out of the S/SE across SE Qld, with bigger surf in the 3-4ft+ range south from Byron. Winds were mainly fresh southerly but pockets of SW winds were reported. Size eased into the afternoon, but a stronger S/SE groundswell filled in overnight, producing solid 4-5ft+ surf at south facing beaches south of Byron, and 2ft to almost 2-3ft waves across the outer Gold Coast points and open beaches, smaller overall on the Sunshine Coast. Winds were moderate SW tending SE north from Yamba but light and variable south from here, ahead of afternoon NE sea breezes. Wave heights are now slowly easing.

The Pass looking active late Wednesday afternoon

Decent mid-afternoon lines at D'Bah

This week (Dec 19 - 20)

Northerly winds are going to cause some issues across the region on Thursday. 

Initially, there’ll be fun waves at south facing beaches south of Byron, with light varibale winds and easing S/SE swells from an inconsistent 3-4ft to 2-3ft during the day.

We’ll see the northerly freshen early-mid morning morning the Mid North Coast, but a few hours later in Far Northern NSW and SE Qld, which will allow for a lengthier period of clean conditions. However north of the border we’ll see very small residual swells at most beaches, with just a few stray 2ft sets at exposed northern ends and south facing beaches (mainly the Gold Coast). 

An approaching trough will stall near the Mid North Coast on Friday, delivering light variable winds across much of the region though isolated regions of onshores can’t be ruled out (i.e. southerly winds across the Mid North Coast at times). 

Unfortunately, we’ll be back to small residual swells across all coasts by this time. South facing beaches south of Byron may see occasional 2ft sets of leftover S’ly swell, but on the whole it’s looking pretty slow and lacklustre. 

NE facing beaches along the Mid North Coast may see some minor NE windswells from Thursday’s gusty winds, but we’ll be lucky to find much in the way of quality. 

And there’s likely to be a small, distant E’ly swell in the water too, originating from trade swells way our near Tahiti last weekend - but again, set waves will be slow and inconsistent at best, probably up to 2ft at exposed beaches. 

So, sniff around the open beaches if you’re keen for a paddle but keep your expectations low. 

This weekend (Dec 21 - 22)

A slow moving trough will advance northwards along the Southern NSW coast on Saturday. Ahead of it, we’ll see freshening N’ly winds, which will dominate most Northern NSW and SE Qld coasts through Saturday afternoon, though the morning will see light variable winds and clean conditions. Winds will be a little lighter in the the north too.

A S’ly change trailing behind the trough will push into the lower Mid North Coast mid-morning on Sunday, but probably won’t make it much further north than about Yamba by sundown. So, north from about Coffs Harbour we’re looking at a lengthy period of light variable wind on Sunday, and then across SE Qld the N’ly flow will weaken from Saturday but is likely to still cause a few issues on the surface throughout the day. 

As for swell, we’ve got a small flukey S’ly swell due Saturday, from a strong though poorly aligned front passing south of Tasmania later today and tomorrow. This will only favour a handful of reliable south swell magnets south of Byron Bay, were we may see occasional 2-3ft sets. 

Otherwise, the small, distant E’ly swell mentioned for Friday will persist both days, with inconsistent sets just up to 2ft at exposed beaches every now and then. 

And we’ll also see a small S’ly windswell fill in behind Sunday’s S’ly change across the Mid North Coast, though quality will be low at those beaches picking up any size (south of Coffs, in the afternoon).

So, it’s a patchy weekend but there’ll be flukey options early Saturday south of the border. 

Next week (Dec 23 onwards)

A powerful Southern Ocean low south-west of Tasmania later this week will track through our acute south swell window over the following days, generating some impressive S’ly swell for our region that’ll arrive over a few stages. 

Initially, the early hours of Monday morning will see the leading edge glance the Northern NSW coast with peak swell periods in the 19-20 second range. However this will have been generated behind the swell shadow of Tasmania so it’s quite likely that only reliable south swell magnets known for efficiently diffracting long period S’ly swell will benefit at all. 

Our wave model is estimating 0.9m at 19 seconds by late Monday, which suggests inconsistent sets in the 4-5ft range at these swell magnets, but I fear most other breaks will be significantly smaller (much smaller than under regular south swell events), and it’s likely SE Qld beaches - other than exposed northern ends and south swell magnets - will completely dip out. So, keep your expectations in check for now. 

The low will weaken slightly over the weekend as it moves into a better part of our swell window. This means we’ll see strong S’ly swells through Tuesday and Wednesday, though the improving alignment within the swell window will be tempered by lower core wind speeds. This makes estimating wave heights very tricky from Monday through Wednesday.

At this stage, despite our surf model guidance suggesting only 2-3ft surf on Tuesday (and smaller surf from the south into Wednesday), I still think we’ll see a peak around 5-6ft+ range at south swell magnets south of Byron. Elsewhere expect much smaller surf.

Because of the flukey swell source and southerly direction, I’m keeping my SE Qld expectations very low for this event. Exposed northern ends and south facing beaches along the Gold Coast may be lucky and pick up some 3ft+ sets at the height of the event (say, Tuesday) but most beaches will struggle to reach 1ft, maybe 1-2ft, and the Sunny Coast will be slightly smaller overall. 

However it’s a powerful storm positioned inside a flukey region of our swell window and small changes in the strength, alignment and position of the low can have major effects on surf size. So, we really need a few more days to firm up. The timing for the biggest waves is (at this stage) expected from late Monday (Mid North Coast) through Tuesday, before easing Wednesday onwards.

At this stage it’s hard to get a bearing on local winds too. The primary low probably won’t affect our local weather but it will push a shallow S’ly change on to the Mid North coast (that’s the one expected Sunday). We’ll then see a slack period early in the week as a trough develops along the coast, in fact there’s a suggestion that it’ll deepen, and bring about a period of E’ly winds (and possibly short range E’ly swell) during the middle of the week.

We really can’t be too sure right now, so let’s take a closer look Friday.

Elsewhere, and there tropics are expected to start developing a more seasonal pattern next week, with a subtropical low south of Samoa feeding into a broad trough north of New Zealand (see below).  

Whilst the LWT pattern associated with the Southern Ocean low will prevent this tropical setup from moving closer to Australia, it does suggest an extended period of small to nearly moderate, long range E’ly swells arriving during the middle of next week, and persisting through until the following week. 

See you Friday!