South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 28th June)

Best Days: Dependent on local winds, and sand setup. But there'll be strong, sizeable E'ly swells for the next week or more, with a couple of very big days (late Sun, all day Mon, maybe early Tues). 

Recap: There’s been plenty of surf for the last few days, with predominantly E/SE swells pushing 3-4ft at most locations, even a little bigger at some exposed spots, though mainly onshore winds have kept quality to a minimum, away from sheltered points. Winds have been lighter on the Mid North Coast with better surface conditions. 

Fun Friday afternoon lines at Noosa

Lotsa unusual sand banks across the Coffs region, given the (relatively small) size

This weekend (June 29 - 30)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

Building E’ly swells are expected all weekend towards a peak in size on Monday. 

In fact, we’re looking towards at least a week - maybe a week and a half - of strong, steady E’ly swells, so we really need to change the way we think about planning our surf schedule.

Instead of working around a one-day event, this sustained pattern of sizeable surf means we’re really best identifying windows of favourable winds for your chosen destination. Then it’s a case of assessing the local sand situation, and pouncing on the right tide. 

Regionally speaking, wave heights will be similar across most locations for this event, though swell magnets in Far Northern NSW will probably see the upper end of the size range (only by a smidge). Expect smaller surf as you wind your way down the points and into protected locations, but with the direction out of the east there won’t be any shortage of surf, even at sheltered inner points. 

Saturday morning will probably be the low point of the entire period with (relatively) smaller surf and lingering lumpiness from the current onshore regime. Most open beaches should be pushing 3-4ft but an increase to 4-5ft is likely through the day (smaller on the points etc). 

Sunday is where we’re expecting to see a more pronounced, step-ladder increase in size, from 4-6ft to 6-8ft+ by the end of the day. A weak coastal pressure gradient will maintain light variable winds so conditions should be clean, but the building groundswell will still be mixed in with decaying trade swell, which will lower the quality somewhat. 

Next week (July 1 onwards)

Normally, large swell events identified a long way in advance usually downgrade over time. Fortunately, this event for next week has maintained its strength, in fact we’ve seen small upgrades from forecast to forecast, which is very encouraging. 

Had this weather system been a solitary low, strengthening and then weakening over the course of a day or two, we’d have expected a peak somewhere in the 6ft+ range or so (based on position, strength, alignment etc), with maximum surf size showing over a six to twelve hour period. 

However, it’s a very slow moving system, and expected to meander within our swell window for quite a lengthy time. This will prolong the plateau of the event, and its long tail is expected to persist through until next weekend thanks to a stationary fetch holding steady to the south-east of Fiji through much of next week. 

Local winds are the wild card. A weak southerly change will slide up the coast on Monday, probably offering no major strength but it’ll freshen the synoptic flow around the south. Tuesday will offer the best conditions of the forecast period with light variable winds ahead of a strengthening coastal ridge from Wednesday that’ll result in moderate to fresh S’ly quadrant winds persisting through the rest of the week, favouring the points and other sheltered southern ends. 

As for size, Monday looks like it’ll see the largest surf, easily pushing 8ft+ at exposed locations, ahead of an easing to 6ft+ on Tuesday. Although surf size will fall back into Wednesday and Thursday, I still think we’re likely to see 4-6ft surf both days through most exposed coasts. A slight easing may then occur into Friday. 

Indeed, those estimates are all higher than model guidance is suggesting, but I just don’t think the wave model is properly resolving the ‘fully developed sea state’ across the northern Tasman Sea, which is the result of a stationary synoptic pattern. So I'm confident for more size than we're used to under similar setups. 

It’s also hard to identify all of the small embedded pulses within this pattern over surf a long time frame, so perhaps it’s just best to anticipate an entire week of strong, sizeable, pulsey surf, with Sunday afternoon, Monday and even Tuesday delivering plenty of oversized bombs that’ll likely push above most surfer's comfort zones. 

Of much greater bearing on your surf potential is your region’s ability to handle large swells. The fact is that many coasts have but a few locations that enjoy these kinds of swell events, and even then some are heavily dependent on favourable sand formations (which is a little patchy at the present time). It’s likely that by the middle to latter part of the week, the nearshore zone will have been under the influence of a steady pattern of repetitive swell energy - and this may result in a better sand situation. That’s just a hunch though. And, local winds will restrict options to the sheltered points anyway. 

Otherwise, if your go-to options are centered around the (usually) reliable points, my suggestion is to wait out the first couple of days, as there’ll be a lot of tired arms come Thursday and Friday, so you’ll be able to maximise your wave count with less heads in the water. 

Longer term has E'ly swells persisting at a smaller level into next weekend and the start of the following week, though sourced from further back inside the distant E'ly swell window. Nevertheless this is an excellent pattern for mid-winter!

See you Monday.