South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 7th April)

Best Days: Tues/Wed/Thurs: fun E'ly swell across most coasts with improving conditions. Look out for a S'ly swell later Wednesday and early Thursday across Northern NSW.

Recap: The weekend saw a continuation of very inconsistent but quality E’ly groundswell, easing from 2-3ft Saturday and 2ft+ Sunday across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW beaches. Concurrently, a S’ly groundswell built across Northern NSW into Sunday with 3ft+ sets at south facing beaches, persisting around 3ft into this morning before easing throughout the day. Saturday morning saw a brief window of light offshore winds on the Gold Coast (longer on the Sunny Coast) before fresh S’ly winds pushed up from Northern NSW. These conditions held through Sunday and a developing trough off the Fraser Coast today has swung the wind more around to the east, building short range E’ly swells to 3-4ft about SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. 

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This week (May 8 - 11)

Our local coastal trough will push to the south-east and weaken into Tuesday, allowing surface conditions to clean up. Fortunately a broad ridge through the northern Tasman Sea will weaken only gradually, which means we’re looking at fun peaky E’ly swell for much of the week.

As for local conditions, for the most part we’re looking at light variable winds, though with a couple of caveats - Tuesday is at risk of a lingering onshore breeze, mainly about SE Qld, in particular the Sunshine Coast.

Also, as the trough slides south-east into Wednesday we may see a brief intensification well east of the Mid North Coast, that may consequently push up a return southerly breeze across Northern NSW throughout the day. Thursday afternoon will see freshening N’ly winds (early NW) ahead of a gusty W’ly change on Friday, so you’ll have to work around these windows too.

As for surf, wave heights should maintain 3ft+ sets out of the east across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW on Tuesday, easing to 2-3ft Wednesday and Thursday before abating more prominently into Friday as the offshore winds kick up strength. Surf size will probably be a shade smaller across the Mid North Coast, but not much. 

Also in the mix this week will be some long period S’ly groundswell. In Friday’s notes I had expected another frontal passage south of Tasmania (over the weekend) to kick up a renewal of S’ly swell into tomorrow. Whilst buoy data across Southern NSW is promising, there’s not a lot of new size showing at the coast so confidence has dropped that we’ll see anything appreciable in the next 24 hours.

Assessing the hindcast data, and it’s a difficult call. The fetch was broad and strong - upwards of 45kts - but it was very poorly aligned within our swell window. The models aren’t picking up any size at all over the coming days but that doesn’t mean we won’t see waves - flukey south swells often produce good surf at a small number of reliable swell magnets south of Byron and this is still a distinct possibility for Tuesday. 

However, there is another source of swell from the south this week. 

A powerful cut-off low approaching Tasmania this afternoon looks incredible in single-step synoptics (see below) but the reality is that it’s moving too quickly to the east, perpendicular through our swell window. Wind strengths will eventually reach 60kts+ but only as it is whisked through our swell window, so we may see a brief flush of long period south swell on Wednesday afternoon, easing Thursday - but again, it’s likely to only favour reliable south swell magnets south of Byron. 

I’ll go out on a limb and call 3-4ft sets across south swell magnets south of Byron by Wednesday afternoon, though much smaller surf elsewhere. But, I’m only going to give this a low confidence rating. I doubt we’ll see much of this south swell north of the border either, away from exposed northern ends.

Otherwise, most mornings this week look fun across Northern NSW thanks to the east swell, and SE Qld is probably going to deliver the best waves Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday there might not be a lot of gas left in the tank so make the most of what you see before then. 

This weekend (May 12 - 13)

Fresh offshore winds are expected this weekend, however we’re looking at tiny surf across most coasts.

The east swell will be but a distant memory and although we have a complex low forming to our south-west, it’s not expected to enter our south swell window until Sunday (meaning new swell won't arrive until about Monday). 

As such, expect minor surf across the beaches Saturday and Sunday with classic winteresque westerlies keeping conditions blustery but clean. 

Next week (May 14 onwards)

We have an enormous, almighty cold outbreak on the way for the weekend (across the Eastern States) in the form of a deep cut off low. Interesting, this system is expected to park itself over Bass Strait - and smash South Oz, then Tasmania, then Vicco with arctic southerlies - but the models are hazy as to how this will develop inside our swell window. 

This cut-off low will most likely enter the Tasman Sea later this weekend as a - you guessed it - Tasman Low, and will consequently dish up a large south swell for Northern NSW early next week. However, there’ll be a lot of wind from the south accompanying the building swell. 

Let’s fine tune the specifics over the coming days.