South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 27th April)

Best Days: Sat thru' Tues: strong S/SE tending SE swells and gusty S'ly winds, best suited to protected points. Lighter conditions (and easing swells) expected by Wed/Thurs next week. 

Recap: Thursday offered small clean beachies across most coasts, with a developing southerly change across Northern NSW throughout the day. Winds have ramped up considerably today, blowing out exposed beaches but also building short range S’ly windswells that are now pushing 6ft+ across Northern NSW. Protected spots are smaller, and across the Gold Coast size is currently in the 2ft range at most outer points with 3ft+ sets at exposed beaches like D’Bah.

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Coffs Harbour breaking miles out

Late lines at Currumbin

This weekend (April 28 - 29) 

There’s been an upgrade in strength and a forward time-shift with regards to the developing low pressure system in the north-eastern Tasman Sea.

The current southerly change is interacting with a trough well south of New Caledonia, and is expected to broaden and deepen a low pressure system west of Auckland tonight, with a wide fetch of southerly gales on its western flank.

These winds are aimed just off-axis for Northern NSW, though only by a small degree, so we will still see plenty of size across this region. There’s a lovely northerly push within the broader fetch as the low develops (which will enhance wave heights), and the low has evolved along an existing strong ridge that’s already generating S/SE swell for the region. All favourable characteristics for strong swell generation.

However, we are looking at an extended period of gusty S/SE winds along the coast, which means protected spots only. Surf size should hold in the 6-8ft range at south facing beaches south of Byron over the weekend, before easing a little into Sunday afternoon ahead of a renewal of new energy on Monday.  Protected spots will be much smaller but they’ll be the only rideable options with these winds. 

Across SE Qld, we’ve also had a small size increase for the weekend though the strong southerly component in the swell direction will still shave off a considerable amount of energy throughout protected spots (such as the inner points at Noosa). Outer points and most open beaches should push 3-4ft, maybe 3-5ft at times if we're lucky, and exposed northern ends will be very wind affected but up to 5-6ft. Expect very small, slow surf across the inner points around 1-2ft. 

Next week (April 30 onwards)

As the Tasman Low evolves over the weekend it’ll aim the primary fetch more around to the east, though without quite the same strength expected this evening. This will generate a series of better quality, though slightly smaller SE swells for Monday and Tuesday. 

As for conditions, a new ridge building along the coast on Monday will restrengthen southerly winds and consequently will keep the only rideable options to protected points. These winds will generate some additional short range S/SE swell which may delineate the groundswell lines. 

As for size, it’ll likely hold in a similar size range (Mon/Tues) as we’re expecting over the weekend, which is: 6-8ft across south facing beaches south of Byron, smaller at protected spots, then north into SE Qld around 3-4ft+ across outer points, 1-2ft at protected inner points but a wind affected 5-6ft at exposed northern ends. 

The long term outlook slowly moves this system out of our swell generating window from Tuesday onwards, and therefore leads to a decrease in size throughout the second half of the week with local winds also easing, though remaining out of the southern quadrant on Wednesday. So, this will maintain the best options at protected points though conditions should become a lot more manageable south of the border. 

By Thursday we should see light variable winds across all regions and smaller though still decent sized swells across open beaches, as the ridge will remain active across the NE Tasman Sea up up until this time, just not greatly aligned within our swell window. 

The extended forecast period into next weekend and the following week is very active, with the remnants of this weekend’s Tasman Low lingering on the other side of New Zealand, but likely just far enough north to sit inside our eastern swell window. Current projections are for a solid E’ly groundswell but we need some more time to firm up the specifics. 

Otherwise, a developing trough along the western Tasman Sea has potential for a mid-range E/NE swell later next week or into the weekend, following by a return southerly swell early in the following week as this system clears to the east.

It's a very dynamic period indeed. Have a great weekend, see you Monday!