Waves, waves, waves: the trade belt locks in for the long term
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 30th March)
Best Days: Plenty of waves each and every day, well suited ot the outer points, though conditions won't be perfect. Bigger E'ly swell due next Friday, and a long period S'ly swell around that time too.
Recap: Building E/NE swells through Thursday, reaching a peak around 6ft across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW this morning, with slightly smaller surf south from Ballina. Winds have been S’ly tending SE throughout SE Qld, though more E’ly across the Northern Rivers, however there hasn’t been a lot of strength south of the border, in fact it’s been mainly light and variable south from about Yamba.
Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl
This weekend (Mar 31st - Apr 1st)
No major change to the weekend forecast. Wave heights will trend down from today into Saturday, levelling out into Sunday.
Saturday morning will therefore have the most size, easing from a peaky 3-5ft to 3-4ft across open beaches throughout SE Qld during the day (smaller running down the points), holding around this range into Sunday, possibly a little smaller.
Wave heights will be smaller across Northern NSW, south from about Yamba.
There’s no major strength expected in the local wind this weekend, but without a synoptic offshore we will see a continuation of slightly lumpy surf across the open beaches. If anything, expect SE winds north of Byron on Saturday tending E’ly into Sunday (with periods of variable winds at times, mainly the mornings).
South from Byron, Saturday’s and Sunday morning's winds will be mainly light and variable with Sunday seeing an afternoon freshening trend from the NE.
Next week (Apr 2nd onwards)
We may not have any epic swell events on the way, but personally I’d prefer a steady diet of user-friendly trade swell. This helps to spread out the crowds, due to a more even geographical coverage of waves and a more sustained run of swell energy (rather than focusing the best surf to a small number of breaks over a limited time frame).
Anyway, this is what’s on the way: we’ve got an extended period of mid-period E’ly swell for the region, thanks to a stationary ridge through the Northern Tasman Sea.
This will provide fluctuating E’ly swell from Monday next week through into the first half of the following week (yeah, seven or more days, not counting this week's surf either), holding either side of 3ft throughout SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with smaller surf across the Mid North Coast.
There's no suggestion for any major strength in the synoptic wind either, so aside from some periods of onshore winds, most of next week looks pretty workable right across the SE Qld and Northern NSW coasts.
Over the weekend, a developing tropical system south of Fiji is expected to evolve into a significant sub-tropical low N/NE of New Zealand through the early part of next week, though it’ll be mainly aimed up into the New Caledonia/Vanuatu region (see chart below). What makes it a viable swell source of us though is its slow moving nature, and its longevity - and it’ll be embedded within the aforementioned trade flow too. This will beef up our E’ly swell prospects later next week thanks to a kick in swell periods.
This pulse is currently slated for a Friday arrival, holding through Saturday and maybe even early Sunday, and could provide 3-5ft surf across some exposed coasts, though the bigger sets will be very inconsistent.
Otherwise, a series of powerful though poorly aligned Southern Ocean fronts and lows below Tasmania next week will generate small levels of southerly groundswell for Northern NSW’s south swell magnets all week. Most of these swells look way too flukey as reliable swell sources, so for the most part we can expect E’ly swells to dominate.
However the final low in this series - tracking below Tasmania around Wednesday, see image below - looks really strong at this stage and the resulting southerly groundswell (due around Friday) should kick up some strong sets into the 4ft range at south swell magnets south of Byron. Let’s take a closer look on Monday.
It’ll also be worth keeping an eye on a very small but strong, and sustained fetch of S’ly winds off the Ice Shelf, to the south of New Zealand from about Sunday onwards. This may generate some small S/SE groundswell for Northern NSW throughout the second half of next week (though, to be fair you’ll probably find it hard to distinguish from the aforementioned S’ly groundswells from the migrating fronts).
Have a great Easter.. see you Monday!
Comments
*Fucked, fucked, fucked. Onshores lock in for the long term. Worst year in a long time so far.
Ain't this usually the case for the Sunny Coast though? Seems to always see more onshores than other coasts this time of the year, as it's the northern most region (for these Forecaster Notes) and is thus closer to the trade flow - and the local topography doesn't influence local winds in like we see in a few other areas (i.e. southern Goldy).
Granted, it's still easily the worst start in a long time by my notes. Least amount of good days/windows/sessions, overnight SE's etc. Not disagreeing with your notes, just saying it's been a particularly painful time 'round these parts haha.
Thats true but the constant onshore flow has been a feature at least down to Yamba lats.
Seems more like a February pattern than April.
Sure... though seeing Sprout's seemingly recapping the last few months (rather than the last few days), wouldn't a 'February' pattern be more expected in Jan/Feb/Mar anyway?
I know from long painful experience how that onshore flow can extend right through early autumn on the Sunny Coast depending on the strength of the synoptic flow from the sub-tropical high pressure belt.
But usually on the North Coast it starts to slacken through March and local catabatic effects from land/sea temp differentials see morning offshores set in.
Not so far. April still seeing deep mean easterly flows and early onshores. It hasn't really cleaned up yet and we are a third of the way through autumn.
Morning offshores the last few days not too far south of your place, Freeride. Here's hoping.
Pretty much what would be expected from climate change. Better get used to it.
Check the forecast for Sydney for next 7 days... No rain, days between 25 and 29c. Supposed to be average 22c. I'm missing the rain for respite..
Solid sets at Alex this arvo.
Got to be the worst ive seen it down here, plenty of swell but hard to find a bank and all the beaches ive checked all have long gutters with outside banks that are mainly closeouts....swells been lumpy and pretty much too ne which has contributed to the gutters. Very ordinary so far........and this is the best time of year so hope the banks improve,cant see it with more of the same coming though ....