South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 28th March)

Best Days: Most days will see great waves across the points. Thurs PM and Fri for the biggest surf.

Recap: Northern NSW has seen a mix of E’ly and S’ly swells over the last two days, whilst SE Qld has seen steady E’ly swells ahead of a building NE swell today from ex-TC Iris.

This week (Mar 29th - 30th)

No major changes to the short term forecast.

Over the coming days, we’re looking at a combination of small NE swell and a larger E’ly swell building from a series of fetches related to ex-TC Iris, which is pushing against a Tasman high and stretching out a respectable easterly fetch east from about Byron latitudes. 

Wave heights will be biggest throughout Far Northern NSW and SE Qld, with sets reaching 6ft+ at exposed locations throughout Thursday afternoon and early Friday, though it’ll be smaller running down the points. If anything, the primary E’ly fetch looks like it may be fractionally less favourably aligned towards the Sunshine Coast, so don’t be surprised if we don’t quite see maximum size across this region on Thursday. This E’ly swell will then slowly ease throughout Friday. 

But just to throw a spanner in the works - a small embedded low within the broader trough is modelled to form immediately west of New Caledonia on Thursday, and track westward (see chart below). A small region of E’ly gales at about Fraser Island latitudes - embedded within the pre-existing active sea state - could generate a brief secondary pulse of E/NE swell for the Sunshine Coast (and to a lesser degree the Gold Coast) at some point on Friday - more likely the afternoon than the morning. 

If this eventuates, we could very well see surf heights rebuild across SE Qld on Easter Friday (bucking the otherwise regional easing E’ly trend). It’ll be short lived but I’ve got a feeling we could see some excellent waves across the points on Friday afternoon, possibly as strong if not marginally stronger than Thursday’s offering. This brief pulse won't have anywhere near as much influence south of Byron though, due to its position and track. 

Looking across Northern NSW for the next few days, and surf size will then taper off as you head south from about Yamba, though we’re still looking at strong 4-6ft sets across the Mid North Coast as the energy reaches a peak late Thursday and early Friday. Size will pull back a fraction into Friday afternoon though still remain quite strong. 

Winds look best suited for the points across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW for the next few days, with moderate to fresh SE breezes (lighter and more S’ly early morning), tending a little more E/SE into Friday though easing a little in strength. 

However a weak pressure gradient throughout Southern NSW should influence the East Coast up to about Coffs Harbour where we’re likely to see light variable winds and sea breezes both days.

This weekend (Mar 31st - Apr 1st)

Ex-TC Iris will linger off the Capricorn Coast over the weekend, generally outside of our swell window.

However, an associated ridge stretching back into the South Pacific through the second half of this week will contribute a steady supply of E’ly swell all weekend. It’ll be down in size from Thursday and Friday, but open beaches throughout SE Qld and Far Northern NSW should see anywhere between 3ft and maybe 5ft both days (smaller running down the points), with the Mid North Coast likely to see 3-4ft surf. 

Ex-TC Iris will maintain a stronghold over SE Qld and Far Northern NSW’s winds, keeping them out of the SE or perhaps ESE both days (lighter S’ly periods likely in a few isolated regions early morning) but south from Yamba we’ll see a little less strength, and thus longer periods of light variable winds through the mornings. Moderate E'ly breezes are expected each afternoon here. 

Next week (Apr 2nd onwards)

There’s still plenty of activity on the long term charts. 

The weekend’s steady though inconsistent trade swell should continue motoring along through the first half of next week, thanks to the Northern Tasman Sea ridge holding through the weekend. This should provide 3-4ft, almost 3-5ft surf across open beaches in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW on Monday (smaller down the points), with smaller on the Mid North Coast. Wave heights will ease a fraction into Tuesday and Wednesday, and mainly light winds are expected Monday ahead of a S/SE change spreading up the coast on Tuesday, holding through Wednesday.  

Ex-TC Iris looks like it’ll remain outside of our swell window into the future. However, a new Tropical Cyclone is expected to form near Fiji over the weekend, and although it’ll track to the east, model guidance has it stalling and intensifying NE of New Zealand through the first half of next week.

This system will be mainly aimed up into the Vanuatu region, though we should see an appreciable spread of E'ly groundswell starting to show through Thursday of next week, building through Friday and holding through the weekend (though likely easing). It’s too early to pin down size estimates but occasional 3-5ft sets are a good chance at this point in time, though they’ll be very inconsistent due to the remote swell source.

Otherwise, we have a couple of nondescript fronts pushing through the lower Tasman Sea next week that’ll supply into intermittent south swell across Northern NSW’s south swell magnets. The first (later Tuesday/Wednesday) will be from a low associated with Tuesday’s S/SE change but a better, longer period S’ly swell is expected later in the week (later Thursday/Friday) and we could see 3ft+ sets from this source too. 

More on this in Friday’s update.