South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 26th March)

Best Days: Most days should have great waves, with solid building swells from Wednesday afternoon onwards. Great for the points through the second half of the week. Excellent long term outlook too.

Recap: Plenty of fun waves all weekend with a combo of easing and building E’ly swells offering 3-5ft waves across most beaches Saturday, easing slightly into Sunday, and remaining generally clean with favourable winds. Size eased to between 3ft and 3-4ft this morning and conditions were again smooth under a light breeze.

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Next week (Mar 27th - 30th)

It’s a fantastic looking short, medium and long term synoptic chart, with the Coral Sea and South Pacific expected to remain very active.

Before we get there, we have a couple of small south swells to push up Northern NSW - the first into the Mid North Coast Tuesday afternoon, with the second swell reaching most of Northern NSW into Wednesday. Only south swell magnets will see any size (very inconsistent 2-3ft sets); other beaches not facing south won't see much size from these sources (front exiting eastern Bass Strait, associated low just SE of Tasmania).

At the same time, we have a complex scenario developing in the Coral Sea.

Over the weekend, Tropical Cyclone Iris formed near the Solomon Islands though it’s already been downgraded to a Tropical Low. However, it looks pretty good on paper, with a reasonable NE fetch on its south-eastern flank, aimed into SE Qld. A small NE swell from this region should build slowly through Tuesday, reaching 2-3ft across exposed beaches on the Sunshine and Gold Coasts through the afternoon (expect a period of smaller surf early morning), and then holding into Wednesday. 

However, Tuesday afternoon will also see Ex-Tropical Cyclone Iris pushing south and broadening an associated trough in the Coral Sea against a Tasman high. This will strengthen an E’ly fetch in SE Qld’s immediate swell window, which will give rise to a building E’ly swell throughout Wednesday, and fortunately this system will remain stationary for a few days, resulting in an extended period of E’ly swell for our region. 

Even better, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Iris (in fact, we may see an upgrade back to TC status by this time) is expected to remain a reasonable distance off the coast which means moderate to fresh SE winds throughout Far Northern NSW and SE Qld, with mainly light and variable winds south from Yamba. This will favour excellent conditions across the points, though they will be smaller in size than the outer points and open beaches. 

Wave heights will build strongly through Wednesday, peaking Thursday morning around 5-6ft+ across exposed regions of SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with smaller 4-6ft surf extending down to the Mid North Coast. Wave heights will probably ease a touch but level out around 4-5ft throughout northern regions into Friday, with 3-5ft surf across the Mid North Coast.

So, it’s looking to be a pretty good second half of the week.

This weekend (Mat 31st - Apr 1st)

Looks like a slowly easing mix of easterly swells for the weekend, initially originating from Ex-Tropical Cyclone Iris though a broad fetch stretching back through the South Pacific should also supply a minor undercurrent of energy.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Iris is expected to linger off the Capricorn coast throughout this period and we may also see some small NE swell from its eastern flank. Though, it’s early days yet. 

There's some suggestion for a coastal trough to develop parallel to the East Coast into Saturday which could bring about a rise in short range NE swell Sunday and (more so) Monday, but confidence is low on this scenario right now. 

As for size, SE Qld and Far Northern NSW should see 3-5ft surf early Saturday, easing to 3-4ft by the afternoon and holding around this size range into Sunday. Expect a foot or so smaller across the Mid North Coast. 

Conditions should remain quite good with mainly light to moderate winds, variable for periods in the mornings. 

Next week (Apr 2nd onwards)

Plenty to look forward too next week, with a strong period of tropical activity in the Coral Sea and South Pacific, including another likely Tropical Cyclone between Fiji and New Caledonia. This should generate an extended period of E'ly swell across the entire East Coast next week and into the following weekend, with a couple of solid days in the mix. More on this in Wednesday’s update.