South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 25th September)

Best Days: Tues: fun easing NE swell with light winds; biggest Gold/Tweed coasts. Thurs: fun combo of early S'ly swell and small peaky NE swell, with winds tending offshore south of about Byron. Fri: light winds and small peaky waves in Northern NSW (only small in SE Qld). Sun: solid building S'ly groundswell. 

Recap: Enjoying these northerlies? I’m not. They blew, and blew, and blew and blew all weekend. Sure, they kicked up some windswell - peaked Sunday afternoon, eased a little this morning but came up again this afternoon - but does it matter when conditions are atrocious? To be fair, parts of the Mid North Coast saw reasonable conditions today with generally lighter winds and peaky NE swells. So it hasn't been all doom and gloom, unless you're in the Far North or SE Qld.

Tweed buoy trace for the last few days

This week (Sep 26 - Sep 29)

Tuesday looks potentially pretty good, all things considering the last couple of weeks. 

A weak front will slide up the NSW coast tonight, bringing a southerly change to Northern NSW, though without any great strength. If anywhere, the Mid North Coast may see moderate to fresh S’ly winds at times but it’s not expected to cause to many problems. 

Prior to this, the current N’ly flow will continue overnight and thus maintain N’ly windswell across the region, though a slight easing is expected into Tuesday, especially south from Ballina (the most size will again be seen across the Gold and Tweed Coasts). 

More importantly, this approaching change will disrupt the northerly regime in the early hours of Tuesday morning and cause winds to become light and variable, which will in turn clean up conditions. It’ll be far from perfect but there’ll be waves around the coast with many more options than the last few days. 

North-facing beaches on the Gold and Tweed Coasts should see some 3ft sets early, before easing during the day. It'll be smaller away from the swell magnets though.

Also, we can expect smaller south from Ballina (say, 2ft at exposed spots and easing); most of the fetch will be across SE Qld waters and if anything, slightly N/NW in alignment which isn’t good for locations further south. 

However - and Sunny Coast surfers are gonna be pretty down about this - the southerly 'change' (if you can call it that; there won't be much strength) is modelled only to influence coastal winds north to about Brisbane or thereabouts. As such we’ll probably continue to see N’ly winds through Tuesday (though lighter than what we have seen for the last few days). To rub it in, surf size will be smaller here than on the Gold Coast owing to a short fetch length. 

This local windswell will ease rapidly into Wednesday, to be replaced by a building S’ly swell generated by a strong front is exiting eastern Bass Strait today. In fact the Mid North Coast should see a little kick in size from the south late Tuesday. 

Wednesday will see the most size from this system, with occasional 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron. Unfortunately, an approaching trough of low pressure will strengthen winds from the N/NE throughout the day, rendering most beaches very bumpy (so get in early, and aim for a protected northern corner). 

In general, Wednesday’s winds will be very poor for SE Qld but there’ll be only small residual NE windswell anyway, and the south swell won’t really get in here either. 

Gusty N’ly winds overnight Wednesday will generate a NE swell for Thursday morning, and conditions will clean up rapidly as a front crosses the coast, bringing a W’ly change to the Mid North Coast (more NW across Northern NSW, N/NW into SE Qld). However, the orientation of the trough means that we’ll see the biggest waves further south, with only small surf on offer north from Coffs Harbour (the NE peak in size wil be brief too, easing during the day). Wednesday’s south swell will be on the way out but there’ll be a few small leftovers at exposed beaches.

For what it’s worth, model data is suggesting the N’ly flow may persist about the Sunny Coast for most of Thursday, rendering all beaches very bumpy. Argh!

These persistent northerlies off SE Qld waters may kick up some more local windswell for the Gold and Tweed Coast later Thursday but it’ll ease rapidly into Friday. Winds should swing light and variable for Friday as a trough crosses the coast, but you’ll have to aim for the morning session for the most size. 

Across Northern NSW, we should see a small blend of leftover N’ly windswell and small new S’ly swell on Friday, generated by a front crossing Tasmanian latitudes on Thursday. This should provide occasional 2-3ft sets to south facing beaches south of Byron, with smaller surf elsewhere.  Conditions should be clean with early offshore winds and afternoon sea breezes. 

This weekend (Sep 30 - Oct 1)

Whoa! There’s some pretty serious frontal activity progged for the Tasmanian region later this week, which should set up a strong south swell for the weekend.

There are several sources of energy for the weekend’s waves - W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait, and then a broad post-frontal SW flow extending south to a deep polar low that’s modelled to see core winds of 60kts+ late Friday and early Saturday, close to the Ice Shelf. 

Confidence is not high on the timing of the peak but current model indications suggest sometime later Sunday, up to 4-6ft at south facing beaches south of Byron Bay, and smaller surf elsewhere. 

Prior to this we should see a solid, though smaller kick throughout Saturday afternoon across the Mid North Coast. Expect much smaller residual surf in the morning. 

SE Qld will remain small for much of the weekend ahead of a late kick in south swell on Sunday afternoon to 1-2ft across the outer points, and 3ft+ across exposed northern ends. Winds will probably be onshore by this time though, so don't get your hopes up.

Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday. 

Next week (Oct 2 onwards)

More strong fronts through the lower Tasman Sea suggests an extended run of intermittent south swell ahead for much of next week, favouring Northern NSW's south facing beaches. However, there are extended periods of northerly winds also on the cards too. More on this in Wednesday’s update.