South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 28th July)

Best Days: Sat: fun S'ly swell in Northern NSW. Not much in SE Qld. Tues: chance for a few inconsistent sets out of the east at exposed beaches. Don't expect much. Wed/Thurs: Strong building S/SE swell with improving winds. Only small in SE Qld.

Recap: Building southerly swells produced great waves across Northern NSW on Thursday afternoon, building from a small early base but reaching 4-5ft late in the day. Size has eased from 3-4ft early this morning to 3ft this afternoon. Across SE Qld, there hasn’t been a lot of size at all, with south swell magnets picking up a few stray sets and bugger all happening across the outer points. 

This weekend (July 29th - 20th)

Let’s quickly summarise SE Qld for the foreseeable future: very small at best. 

Now, moving on to Northern NSW (sorry, was that a little abrupt?), and our long running southerly groundswell - since Tuesday - dipped a little below expectations in Southern NSW today, so that trend will propagate northwards into Northern NSW - mainly overnight, but possibly lingering into Saturday morning. 

As such there’s now a little more risk about Saturday’s surf potential.

However, I was expecting one final pulse of southerly groundswell from this pattern overnight Friday and into Saturday, and the model data is maintaining just under a metre at 13-14 seconds for most of Saturday (at Coffs Harbour), not dissimilar to what was seen today. 

Additionally, we’ll also see a fresh short range S’ly swell in the water, originating from a strong front exiting eastern Bass Strait this afternoon. 

Both swells will only favour south swell magnets south of Byron, with size up to an inconsistent 3ft. Expect smaller surf elsewhere. 

Winds should be mainly light to moderate offshore, tending variable throughout the day, however there is risk for a lingering S/SW flow early morning from an overnight change expected to sweep up the coast. This may create some wobble through the lineup at exposed spots, but surf conditions will improve during the day.

So, in short - don't expect perfect conditions, and the sets will be inconsistent, and mainly confined to south swell magnets. 

Wave heights will then ease overnight and into Sunday. South facing beaches south of Byron may see a few leftover 2ft sets early morning but it’ll be smaller elsewhere, and will ease during the day. 

Note: the "estimated surf height" from our in-house model is suggesting a kick in size around 6am Sunday (at Coffs Harbour, see right), but this is erroneous - the model is combining both the long range and short range energy together, giving the false impression of a boost in surf heights early morning.

Conditions will be clean with early NW winds on Sunday but they’ll swing moderate to fresh N’ly across Northern NSW into the afternoon, rendering all but the most protected northern corners quite bumpy. 

And to reiterate for SE Qld - it’ll be tiny just about everywhere, with just a few small inconsistent waves at the region’s handful of south swell magnets. 

Next week (July 31st onwards)

A small, long range E’ly groundswell is expected to arrive on Monday - probably the afternoon - peaking into Tuesday then easing Wednesday.

This swell will be sourced from a deep trough/low located SE of Tahiti last Sunday/Monday (yeah, we’d almost forgotten about it!). In all honesty there won’t be much to write home about - freshening northerly winds will disrupt proceedings on Monday, and Tuesday and Wednesday will see extremely long periods between sets though conditions will improve across a few beaches. We may see very occasional 2ft+ waves at a bunch of reliable swell magnets, but it won’t be worth working around. 

Otherwise, we have a more confident swell source for the middle of week across Northern NSW, which was was detailed in Wednesday’s notes - however it’s been brought forward a little earlier in the timeline.

On Monday, a developing trough is expected to form a low pressure system well east of the South Coast. Southern gales will develop across the low’s western flank from overnight Monday onwards, but I’m not confident on the prospect of Tuesday’s surf from this source as the way the system develops is a little erratic. South facing beaches south of Byron should see an increase throughout the day but it’s highly likely that they’ll also be affected by developing S/SW tending S’ly winds. Protected locations will be very small owing to the southerly swell direction and initial low period. 

There is much more potential beyond this though. The low is expected to remain slow moving for a day or two, and this will allow secondary fronts to wrap around the low, working on the pre-existing active sea state and helping to generate bigger, better quality S/SE groundswells for Wednesday and Thursday.

Now, whilst there is moderate to high confidence that a decent sized low will form in the southern Tasman Sea early/mid next week, the models have moved around on the particulars in the last 48 hours so we really need a few more days to iron our the specifics. So right now the models are estimating 4-5ft from the S/SE from late Tuesday into Wednesday and Thursday, but there’s a chance that it could be pushed higher if the models develop the SW flank of this low a little better (personally, I am expecting somewhere in and around the 5-6ft mark at reliable south swell magnets). The key will however be to work around the winds - we should see a rapid easing trend (towards variable) by Wednesday and possibly even NW winds by Thursday. 

I’ll update over the weekend as more information comes to hand, otherwise check back Monday for an update on how this event will pan out next week.

This new swell looks very steep in alignment for SE Qld beaches, so apart from some small, inconsistent waves across the outer points, the exposed northern ends will continue to be your best option on Wednesday and Thursday - ballpark size around the 3ft+ mark on the Gold Coast and 2ft+ on the Sunshine Coast if we’re lucky. Excpect very small waves elsewhere. 

Looking further ahead, and the models have another Tasman Low forming off the coast later next week which should continue July's strong activity through the first week of August. I’ll point out at this early stage that this particular system also has good potential to generate a brief peaky N’ly windswell for the Gold and Tweed Coasts, which - if the timing is right - will see a window of offshore winds following the passage of a front. We haven’t seen one of these fun beach break swells for a while. Let’s see how the models are looking next week. 

Have a great weekend!