South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 24th July)

Best Days: Tues: small south swell with offshore winds. Keep an eye out for a late pulse of bigger S'ly swell (mainly Mid North Coast). Wed: Fun long period S'ly swell in Northern NSW with offshore winds. Only small in SE Qld away from exposed northern ends. Fri: good south swell in Northern NSW with light offshore winds. 

Recap: What a weekend! Especially if you were in Northern NSW. One of the biggest, cleanest S/SE tending SE groundswells in many years pushed across the region throughout Saturday afternoon and into Sunday morning, offering a wide variety of wave heights depending on each coast’s exposure to the south - though all locations saw strong, well groomed swell lines and offshore winds. Wave heights ranged anywhere between 3-4ft on the Sunshine Coast’s northern ends, 3-5ft across the Gold Coast’s northern beaches (points were smaller due the swell direction), 5-6ft across the Tweed Coast and then 8-10ft across parts of Northern NSW. Saturday’s timing was unusually delayed across the Sunshine Coast (though this was specifically referenced in Friday’s notes). Today we’ve seen a rapid easing trend but with similarly perfect conditions. 

This week (July 25th - 28th)

We’ve got some good waves ahead for Northern NSW, but unfortunately most of SE Qld is looking at an extended spell of small conditions, thanks to an absence of weather systems in our eastern swell window.

Most days this week will see moderate offshore or light variable winds, except Thursday where a weak front will clip the coast and could perk up a S/SE airstream across Northern NSW, rendering the open beaches bumpy.

As for swell, we have two new south swells due tomorrow. A small short range S’ly swell is advancing across the southern NSW coastline right now, and should bring some 2-3ft sets to south facing beaches south of Byron (smaller elsewhere), but not much energy north of the border. 

However, at some point into the afternoon, it’ll be overtaken by a long period S’ly groundswell generated by a deep polar low that tracked south of Tasmania over the weekend. The leading edge of this swell may not reach the Mid North Coast until early afternoon, after which time it’ll start to increase size across the coast into the late afternoon and then peak into Wednesday morning. It’s unlikely that the Far North will pick up any appreciable size until very late in the day at the earliest, likely overnight.

This long period south swell is expected to produce occasional (i.e. inconsistent) 4-5ft+ sets at south facing beaches south of Byron Bay, but as per usual it’ll be much smaller elsewhere due to the swell direction. North of the border, most SE Qld beaches and outer points won’t see much more than a stray 1-2ft set every so often, however exposed northern ends of the Gold Coast could see occasional 3ft+ sets on Wednesday, with the northern ends of the Sunny Coast pulling in inconsistent 2-3ft waves. 

So, Wednesday is the pick of the working week thus far. Expect an easing trend throughout the day, especially across the Mid North Coast.

Thursday will see a continuation of long period S’ly swell, thanks to the source of our late Tuesday/Wednesday swell remaining active as a broad polar low, well SW of New Zealand over the coming days. This should maintain 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron both Thursday and into Friday morning. 

Additionally, Thursday will see a kick in additional short range S’ly swell, originating from a strong front exiting eastern Bass Strait on Wednesday. South facing beaches in Northern NSW could see 4-5ft sets at times as this swell kicks in (late morning/lunchtime Mid North Coast, mid-late afternoon Far North Coast), though the associated front will deteriorate conditions at these locations as the wind swings from an early W/SW to the S/SW. 

I’d class Thursday as a lay day right now because of these winds and the belated kick in bigger energy, and aim for Friday - this southerly swell combo will be easing but winds will revert back to a light offshore as the front clears to the east.

So, south facing beaches south of Byron should have early 3-5ft sets (smaller elsewhere, and abating during the day). North of the border, we may see very small waves across the outer points but exposed northern ends of the Gold and Coast will be your best bets with occasional 2-3ft sets and clean conditions. Expect slightly smaller surf on the Sunshine Coast.

This weekend (July 29th - 20th)

Make the most of Saturday as Sunday is on track for small swells and northerly winds. Our working week’s supply of south swell will dwindle as an approaching zonal flow of strong fronts failed to line up within our swell window. 

Saturday should see early 3ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron (smaller elsewhere) but it’ll be very small in SE Qld, tiny on the points and just 1-2ft at exposed northern ends. Early light offshore winds will swing to the north during the day. 

Expect very small surf into Sunday with the only rideable options at sheltered northern corners thanks to northerly winds, which will become fresh across the Mid North Coast at times. 

Next week (July 31st onwards)

By and large, there’s nothing of any interest showing up on the long range charts right now, so next week will probably rely on a couple of flukey swell sources to keep us active.

One of these flukey swell sources is actually in play right now - a deep trough, located well SE of Tahiti, way out near Easter Island, squeezing against a South Pacific high pressure system (see below).

It’s generating a long period E’ly swell that should arrive through Monday afternoon and peak into Tuesday, easing Wednesday - however this is about the furtherest reaches of our eastern swell window and there’ll be extremely long breaks between sets (that may max out at 1-2ft). Anyway, it’s only worth mentioning because of a (likely) absence of other swell generating systems between now and then. And winds will likely be northerly anyway, so there won’t be many options. Still, it’s fun to observe these systems to see how they track over such vast distances.