South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 12th July)

Best Days: Fri: small S/SE swell across open beaches in Northern NSW. Sat PM/Sun: low chance for a small long period SE swell across open beaches in Northern NSW. 

Recap: Surf size has remained tiny in SE Qld for the last few days, with only minor southerly energy lighting up exposed south swell magnets such as D’Bah (see below). South facing beaches in Northern NSW have however picked up a small southerly swell today, though developing southerly winds have created bumpy conditions. 

Tiny Wednesday arvo peaks at D'Bah

This week (July 13th - 14th)

Thursday’s looking a little average. 

The small south swell gracing the region today will peak overnight and then ease through Thursday. Early morning may see a few stray 2-3ft sets at exposed northern ends (mainly around the Ballina region) but it’ll ease throughout the day and will be smaller away from south facing beaches. Surf size will probably be smaller south from Coffs Harbour too, as the energy will be drying up from here first.

Today’s southerly airstream will largely abate into Thursday but there’s likely to be lingering wobble through the lineup at exposed beaches. So don’t get too excited. 

And it’ll remain tiny across SE Qld, with only south swell magnets offering anything remotely rideable. Even then it’ll be a challenge.

Late Thursday afternoon, we will see a small new S/SE swell generated by a fetch off the west coast of New Zealand’s South Island earlier this week. However, it wasn’t particularly strong and it was aimed towards New Caledonia - so set waves will be slow and inconsistent.

In fact, our wave model really isn’t picking up this energy very well (though being a flukey swell source that’s not entirely surprising). So keep your confidence low for anything worthwhile as there’s a fair chance it’ll disappoint at many beaches. Though conditions will be clean under a light NW wind.

South facing beaches south of Byron will see the most size, with very infrequent 2-3ft+ sets. Elsewhere, expect much smaller surf and across SE Qld I doubt we’ll see much more than 2ft at exposed south friendly beaches, with barely a foot or so across the outer points. So aim for the northern ends here as they’ll have the best conditions and most size.

But… keep your expectations low. This is not a swell event to rearrange your diary around.

This weekend (July 15th - 16th)

In general, we’ve got a low quality mixed bag for the weekend. Friday’s S/SE swell will disappear into Saturday so we can expect generally small, easing leftovers across exposed south facing beaches south of Byron Bay, and very little elsewhere. 

A small south swell may also impact the Mid North Coast into Sunday (likely the afternoon), originating from a W/SW flow exiting eastern Bass Strait on Saturday. But, it’s unlikely that south facing beaches will see much more than the odd 2-3ft set - even that is probably overly optimistic. I am doubtful it’ll generate much surf north from Coffs either. 

However, it’s worth noting that a secondary intensification of the low pressure system responsible for Friday’s minor S/SE swell (around Thursday) will unfortunately be bisected by New Zealand (see image below). 

The models are estimating up to 50kts exiting western Cook Strait (the body of water separating the north and south islands) but the fetch is very poorly aligned within our swell window, and doesn’t hang around too long either. 

Right now its swell potential is minimal - exposed beaches in Northern NSW should pick up some small new long period energy Saturday afternoon and through Sunday but I am doubtful at this stage that we'll see much more than the odd 2ft+ set at reliable swell magnets if we are lucky.  

However, I’ll keep an eye on it for Friday’s update, as a small change in its orientation could significantly change the equation for the weekend surf forecast. 

Next week (July 17th onwards)

Sunday afternoon’s small south swell across will disappear through Monday and all indicators are for tiny surf conditions through the first few days of the new week. Even the weekend’s low percentage SE swell from the flukey system near NZ will be all gone by this time, if indeed we see anything at all.

Elsewhere, a broad, complex trough developing across Bass Strait and the southern Tasman Sea may spawn a Tasman Low mid-week, with a chance for a solid south swell centered around Thursday or Friday across Northern NSW (again, not much for SE Qld). But this is still more than a week away so let’s take a closer look at the latest model updates on Friday.