South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 2nd June)

Best Days: Sat: windy but otherwise workable S'ly swell across protected points. Not a lot of size in SE Qld. Sun: smaller but still only surfable at protected spots. 

Recap: Southerly swells and fresh accompanying winds from the SW thru S have reduced surfable options to protected southern corners, which have been considerably smaller. Some exposed south facing beaches south of Byron have delivered wind affected 4-6ft sets but everywhere else has seen much smaller surf. The final pulse of S’ly groundswell from this series is now moving into the Mid North Coast and will reach remaining coasts early Saturday.

This weekend (Sat 3rd - Sun 4th)

So, there’s one final pulse of south swell expected from this most recent Tasman Low, and it’ll deliver the biggest and strongest waves of the sequence. 

However, it’ll be very south in direction and with fresh southerly winds accompanying, the only rideable locations will be protected spots. And they’ll be a lot smaller.

Most of Northern NSW will be quite wind affected, apart from the heavily sheltered points - exposed spots should see easy 6ft+ sets through Saturday - in fact the peak of the swell has been pushed back until mid-late morning, so we should see very strong surf conditions all day. 

But the reality is that you’ll be surfing much smaller waves at those locations that offer shelter from these conditions. 

Across SE Qld, the story will be the same, though diluted in size. We’re looking at inconsistent 2-3ft surf across the outer points throughout Saturday, becoming smaller as you work your way down the points. Sheltered locations like Noosa’s inner points will be tiny owing to the strong southerly component in the swell direction. Beaches with good southerly exposure will be bigger but torn to pieces by the wind.

Some locations may see an early period of S/SW or even SW winds but for the most part expect gusty southerlies. 

As for Sunday, wave heights will ease steadily across all coasts, and winds will slowly abate from the south though we’ll see fresh southerlies at times. There’s a slightly higher chance (though not much) for early SW winds but plenty of locations will remain lumpy and/or bumpy for much of the day. Surf size will start to become marginal across the outer SE Qld points throughout the day but with the open beaches rather wind affected there may not be too many other options.

Next week (Mon 5th onwards)

Next week's forecast has thrown a range of curveballs over the last few days. 

Wednesday’s model runs had nothing of interest at all, Thursday’s model runs suddenly spawned a deep Tasman Low, and now the latest model runs have this system showing as a southerly change across southern NSW around Tuesday, with very little swell generating activity on the Tasman.

Overall, we’re looking at rapidly easing swells (from the weekend) through Monday, with early SW winds tending moderate to fresh S'ly during the day.

Of concern for next week's outlook is a stationary ridge across the coast which is currently modelled to maintain moderate to fresh southerly winds across the region. Obviously, this more preferable that our spring-time northerlies, but with little in the way of strong new expected next week, and all of it from the south, the open beaches will become blown out quite quickly and the protected points will be very small.

Now, this outlook for the middle of next week is based on the current model runs that have weakened the Tasman Low that appeared yesterday. If there are changes in the synoptic charts over the weekend, I’ll comment below - but for now it looks like a relatively benign setup. 

Tuesday’s southerly change will generate a low quality south swell for Wednesday across Northern NSW but there won’t be much size in it.  The front will be associated with a deep low passing south of Tasmania on Monday but it’s expected to be poorly aligned within our south swell window, so we’re looking at only a small increase in southerly groundswell later Wednesday and through Thursday across Northern NSW, perhaps 2-3ft sets at a handful of south swell magnets south of Byron, and not much elsewhere.

We're looking at very small surf across SE Qld for most of this time frame too.

Beyond this the model guidance is suggesting the long wave trough will amplify over the eastern part of New Zealand (Wednesday onwards), focusing very strong frontal succession just outside out swell window. We’ll probably see some small, unusual SE swell spread back into the Tasman Sea and therefore NSW coast - but probably not until next weekend and early in the following week.

Anyway, with the models all over the shop in recent days it’s really going to require close scrutiny with each and every update. So, check in over the weekend to see if the particulars have changed - otherwise if current progs hold steady we’re looking at small surf for much of next week and beyond.

Have a great weekend!