South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 3rd May)

Best Days: Fri: small average trade swell on the Gold Coast. Small clean S'ly swell in Northern NSW south from Coffs (wind affected north of here). Sat/Sun: fun trade swell in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, smaller clean waves in Northern NSW with an easing S'ly swell. Later Mon/Tues/Wed/Thurs: possible solid S'ly swell for Northern NSW. Next week: building E'ly swell across the region, may get solid later next week and into the weekend (and beyond!).

Recap: Small waves for the last few days. A minor trade swell has provided just-rideable surf in SE Qld but it’s been tiny elsewhere.

This week (May 2 - 5)

A building ridge behind today’s southerly change is expected to kick up some reasonable trade swell for the end of the week across SE Qld. Thursday will start off very small and may not see an appreciable kick in size until very late afternoon, so Friday is a better bet to plan for a surf north of the border. 

Wave heights should build to 2-3ft across the Gold and Tweed Coasts during the day, with larger 3-4ft sets across the Sunshine Coast. Winds will remain fresh SE so only the outer points will have a workable combination of swell and wind (best suited to the southern Gold Coast), as there’s unlikely to be quite enough size for protected inner points. 

Northern NSW will also see some building south swell for the rest of the week. A southerly change pushed across the region today, and although there’s no immediate swell trailing the fetch, we do have several small sources of S’ly swell for Northern NSW on the way. 

Due to the large travel distances and relatively low core wind speeds, no great size is expected however we should see a mid-range S’ly swell (originating from the post-frontal S/SW fetch east and south of Tasmania) kick up 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron throughout Thursday. Expect smaller waves at locations not directly open to the south. However freshening SE winds will create problems north from about Coffs Harbour (lighter winds are expected south of here, and should see an early period of SW winds).

Into Friday, a small but longer period S’ly swell - originating from the parent polar low to this frontal progression, well south of Tasmania on Monday - will make landfall during the day (probably the afternoon). Set waves will be much less consistent than Thursday’s swell (which will be easing by this time) but should be stronger and more defined, occasionally cracking the 3ft mark at south facing beaches south of Byron. Again, expect smaller waves elsewhere. 

As for Friday’s conditions in Northern NSW, the Far North will still be under the influence of the ridge so fresh SE winds will confine the best conditions to protected locations. However building high pressure across the Mid North Coast should see light variable winds south of about Coffs Harbour.
 
This weekend (May 6 - 7)

We’ve got a complex weekend of waves but ultimately it’s looking pretty fun for SE Qld. 

A tropical cyclone is expected to develop in and around the Vanuatuan region later this week, in fact it is expected to remain unusually slow moving from about Thursday until Sunday or Monday - this could wreak havoc across the country.

The developing ridge through the lower Coral Sea will retain strength through the weekend though may contract slightly to the north. This should be enough to keep the Gold and Tweed Coasts motoring along with 2-3ft+ trade swell on Saturday, easing slightly into Sunday, and bigger surf is likely across the Sunshine Coast’s open beaches near 3-4ft. 

The good news here is that as the ridge moves slightly north, the local pressure gradient will relax and local wind speeds will ease. There’s a risk for a lingering SE breeze Saturday morning (especially across the Sunny Coast) but Sunday is shaping up to deliver light winds and fun beach breaks. 

As for Northern NSW, we’ll see Friday’s southerly swells ease from Saturday morning onwards. So make the most of Saturday as the only swell source in the water by Sunday will be a smaller percentage of trade swell spread, getting smaller as you track south from Byron. The weekend’s winds are looking very good across Northern NSW though so the beachies should have fun waves. 

Next week (May 8 onwards)

No change to the longer term outlook - I’m still keeping a watchful eye over the SW Tasman Sea and the Lower Coral Sea. 

An intense Tasman Low is expected to form east of Tasmania overnight Sunday, and this is expected to generate a couple of days of tricky though solid south swell for the NSW coast. I’ve used the words “tricky” because the close proximity of this system to the Southern NSW Coast (and therefore inside the interesting swell shadow offered by the Hunter curve) - coupled with a slightly erratic model output - means that confidence is not yet high on how much, how long or how good the associated surf will be. But all indications are still for a couple of days of solid, possibly large S’ly swell in Northern NSW sometime from Monday afternoon onwards through the middle of the week at least. At first glance the first pulse of S'ly swell late Monday and early Tuesday looks the pick and could see set waves around 4-5ft at reliable south swell magnets south of Byron. 

Also, if this low remains at southern latitudes - at least through its initial cycle - there’s likely to be several windows of favourable winds throughout this period. Even if it tracks north into Northern NSW, slow moving low pressure systems like this often undergo cycles whereby small-scale features move around the low, tweaking the winds within 90 degrees for hours at a time. But, this won’t be properly understood until much closer to the time. So I’ll reevaluate in more detail on Friday.

Elsewhere, the Vanuatuan tropical cyclone is a very complex system. It looks like it’ll spend a great deal of time - Thursday to Monday - tucked up inside the swell shadow of New Caledonia. So it’s unlikely to be a direct swell source for our region for some time (unless the model guidance shifts considerably).

However, a strong ridge to the south-east is expected develop over the weekend, cradling the cyclone and generating E’ly swells that should start to building slowly across the region early-mid next week, ahead of a possible solid E’ly tending E/NE pulse mid-late next week and into the weekend (see image below.. that's a tasty fetch!). Current model guidance suggests this could be another long lasting swell event too, but this is still some time away though and will require close evaluation in Friday’s and Monday’s notes. 

So.. lots of exiting surf in the long term, just a few days of mediocre but improving waves before then.

See you Friday!