South-east Queensland and Northern Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 1st May)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri: building trade swell in SE Qld, OK waves on the Gold Coast points. Sat/Sun: fun surf in SE Qld with a decent trade swell and easing SE winds, good across the points. Should be a good mix of smaller surf in Northern NSW too with light winds south of Yamba. Next week: on standy for some strong E/NE swell. 

Recap: Easing S’ly swell hasn’t really been enough to offer anything worthwhile in SE Qld over the last few days. Northern NSW saw early 4ft sets on Saturday morning, easing during the day ahead of a rebuilding trend through Sunday from the south that is now easing again from 2-3ft this morning. Winds have been favourable early mornings.

This week (May 2 - 5)

I’m not expecting any fantastic surf for the rest of the week across either coast. However there is plenty of action ahead, especially in the longer term.

Tuesday and Wednesday may see a minor SE swell glance the Northern NSW coast, generated by the remnants of the weekend’s front as it stalled off NZ’s West Coast. However it didn’t last long in the swell window and the fetch was unfavourably aligned, so I’d be surprised if south swell magnets picked up much more than a couple of feet of inconsistent swell (model guidance has hardly anything). Expect tiny surf elsewhere, especially across SE Qld.

A building ridge through the Northern Tasman Sea today and tomorrow looks like it won’t be very strong nor very large, and it’ll also be quite north in latitude. But we should see a small east swell building across SE Qld and possible Tweed Coasts from later Wednesday and into Thursday. I’ll peg this swell around the 1-2ft mark at best (perhaps a little bigger on the Sunny Coast) but don’t get your hopes up.

Elsewhere, a fresh southerly change will push across the Northern NSW coast later Wednesday, in association with a passing cold front. This should generate 3ft of short range windswell into Thursday (at south facing beaches south of Byron), though quality won’t be very high across open beaches under the accompanying S/SE breeze. 

Also in the mix through Thursday and Friday will be some longer period S’ly energy, generated from two sources related to the parent low to Wednesday’s change, which is currently forming well S/SW of Tasmania, right on the western periphery of our south swell window. 

Initially, we’ll see building energy during Thursday from a long, broad expanse of S/SW winds between the low and cold front, but into Friday some smaller but longer period energy originating from the low will make landfall. I’d be surprised if we saw much more than about 3ft at south facing beaches (south of Byron) both days, and with a building ridge across the coast we’ll see moderate to fresh S/SE winds swing more SE in direction.

This strengthening ridge looks very interesting for SE Qld surfers in the long term, thanks to a possible Tropical Cyclone that’s expected to form near Vanuatu around Thursday. It’s a real summer setup and through Thursday afternoon and Friday we should be seeing building swells into the 3ft+ range across the Gold and Tweed Coasts, up to 3-4ft+ across the Sunshine Coast (with smaller surf south of Ballina). Wave heights will be smaller on the points but under the gusty SE breeze there should be reasonably fun options across the southern Gold Coast.
 
This weekend (May 6 - 7)

The trades looks like they’ll hold strength through the start of the weekend, with a weak steering pattern expected to see the Vanuatuan Tropical Cyclone meander about the region for a few days. This should maintain fun trade swell around 3ft+ across the Gold and Tweed Coasts both days, up to 3-4ft+ across the Sunny Coast, but smaller south of Ballina. 

Winds should remain out of the SE though model guidance is suggesting the pressure gradient will ease, leading to a weakening of wind speeds (and therefore allowing select regions to see early light SW winds, especially on Sunday).

As for Northern NSW, aside from a tapering of trade swell with increasing southerly latitude, the south swell we’re expecting on Friday will ease steadily over the weekend. Light variable winds are expected south of Yamba, in fact we could even see a NW flow develop at some point as a cut-off low develops west of Tasmania. 

So, there should be a fun blend of swells across the Mid North and Northern NSW coasts on Saturday, with Sunday expected to see negligible south swell and a small steady trade swell, biggest in the north.

Next week (May 8 onwards)

Next week's surf prospects are firmly up in the air due to the large uncertainty regarding the Vanuatuan Tropical Cyclone.

Based on current model guidance there’s a fair chance for some strong swell activity out of the E/NE early-mid next week but we really need a few more days to firm things up. 

Elsewhere, it looks like we will see a deep low intensify east of Tasmania around Monday, possibly kicking up a strong south swell into Tuesday for Northern NSW. A secondary front trailing behind should maintain good southerly energy through the middle to latter part of the week. It’s too early to have any confidence in size and timing but all indications are for a solid couple of days of waves at south swlel magnets. 

Let’s check back on Wednesday to see how the models are interpreting these developments.