South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 24th March)

Best Days: Tues PM/Wed AM: inconsistent E'ly swell - winds look tricky south of Ballina Tues PM but all beaches should be offshore early Wed. Thurs/Fri/Sat/Sun/Mon/Tues: solid fluctuating south swell across Northern NSW, but windy at times. Only small in SE Qld due to the direction. 

Recap: Plenty of fun trade swell for the last three days, and a small underlying E’ly swell too. Winds were mainly favourably for the outer points, but the mornings - especially Sun and today - opened up a decent window of light SW winds with clean conditions across the beach breaks as a result. Size has eased a little into today but there are still plenty of runners. Size has been smaller south from about Yamba though conditions have remained clean for much of the days here due to the weaker pressure gradient. 

This week (Apr 25 - 28)

The weekend’s trade swell will continue to slowly ease into Tuesday. However, it looks like the low generating our inbound E'ly swell for the coming days sped up a little over the weekend. As such our expected swell increase is now due some 6-10 hours earlier than what was tipped on Friday.

Dawn on Tuesday morning may possibly see a ‘low point’ in size between swells, but by mid morning we should see the leading edge of this new E’ly swell that is expected to reach a peak late in the day or overnight, up around 3ft at most exposed beaches by the afternoon and maybe some 3-4ft sets in the few hours before dark. Expect reasonable waits between set waves.

The only concern for Tuesday is the presence of a freshening northerly breeze as a front approaches from the south-west. Strength-wise, this will mainly affect locations south of about Ballina, with light to moderate N’ly winds expected north from Byron (though they could cause a problem at some locations). This is a shame as the early morning will probably see light NW winds, and the day’s building size will be accompanied by the least-favourable conditions. 

However, with the front clearing to the east during Wednesday (off the Southern NSW coast) we’ll see winds swinging W/NW across most regions - moderate to fresh at times - and then SW late in the day across the lower Mid North Coast. This will favour the beachbreaks right across the coastline.

The E’ly swell will probably peak overnight and trend down through Wednesday however we should see some 2-3ft+ sets across most open beaches in the early morning. Expect smaller waves after lunch. And, it’ll be very inconsistent at times. 

A new low pressure system is expected to develop across the southern Tasman Sea overnight Wednesday, driving gale force S’ly winds off the Southern NSW coast overnight. Initially, these winds will be just outside of our primary near swell window but the fetch will broaden slightly into Thursday - though mainly holding south of Port Macquarie. This is probably a good thing, as it won’t contaminate the surf as much with needless short range energy.

That being said, the acute southerly swell direction (actually, S/SW offshore) will create a large range in wave heights across the coast. And, the models are not resolving the swell potential on Thursday very well at the moment. Our model has 2-3ft surf at south facing beaches in Coffs building to 4ft by the day but in all likelihood we could see 6ft sets late afternoon at south swell magnets south of Byron (more so the Mid North Coast than the Far North Coast). 

Friday is a much better chance for more size with 6ft+ bombs expected at most south facing beaches south of Byron, but with moderate to fresh S/SW winds these locations will be blown out so you’ll need to look for sheltered spots where it’ll be smaller. 

Across SE Qld, I’m not expecting much size from this event due to the position and orientation of the fetch. Friday is the most likely day to see any action from this source (Most of the Gold and Sunshine Coasts will probably max out at 1-2ft, though a handful of reliable outer points (i.e. Snapper Rocks) may see occasional 2-3ft sets and the region’s handful of exposed south facing beaches could pick up 3-4ft sets - though they’ll be blown out with the accompanying S/SW breeze. 

Also - I’ll have to double check on Wednesday, but there’s a chance that Thursday afternoon may see a small spread of S’ly swell from a brief SW fetch pushing off Mid North Coast overnight Wednesday and early Thursday. Ordinarily these systems don’t make sense as swell generators for this neck of the woods, but I’ve seen unusual swells from them before, right up across Far Northern NSW and event into the SE Qld coast (though admittedly from much stronger fetches) so I’ll pencil this in for a clarification in Wednesday’s update.

This weekend (Apr 29 - 30)

Another series of fronts rounding the Tasmanian corner on Friday night will generate strong renewal of south swell for Sunday.

Prior to this, Saturday will see easing south swell from Friday. South facing beaches south of Byron could manage 4-5ft+ sets in the morning but it’ll become smaller throughout the day.

North of the border, we’ll see much smaller surf around 1-1.5ft at most beaches/outer points, and up to 2-3ft at exposed northern ends/south facing beaches for the early surf. Conditions should be clean with light to moderate SW winds throughout. 

On Sunday, surf size will rebuild from the south during the day but southerly winds will also restrengthen across the coast as a front clips the coastal margin. Expect anywhere between 4ft and maybe 6ft at south facing beaches south of Byron by the late afternoon (smaller earlier), around 3-4ft at most beaches, and north of the border we should see 1-2ft across most of the Gold and Sunshine Coasts, up to a very late 3ft+ at exposed northern ends. 

Next week (May 1 onwards)

The parent low to the weekend’s change looks like it’ll be quite strong, but much further south in latitude and less favourably aligned within our swell window.

As such, a slightly smaller, longer period S’ly groundswell is expected to fill into the Northern NSW later Monday, with the short range energy from Sunday easing in size through the morning. This should maintain sets between 4ft and possibly 6ft at south facing beaches south of Byron, and 1-2ft surf across SE Qld beaches, reaching 3ft+ at exposed northern ends. Light winds are expected early next week so conditions are looking pretty good.

Looking further ahead and yet another strong frontal outbreak is expected later Monday that should kick up another strong south swell for Tuesday and Wednesday. More on this in future forecast updates.