South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 14th March)

Best Days: Most days should have great waves. Sat for the most size in Northern NSW (easing SE swell). Then Sun/Mon/Tues for the most size everywhere, from a building long range E'ly swell. Great conditions most days too. 

Recap: Wednesday’s excellent NE swell from TC Cook eased rapidly through Thursday, initially some 2-3ft sets at swell  magnets in SE Qld but smaller throughout the day. As expected, the Mid North Coast saw the peak plateau longer, holding in the 4ft range into Thursday morning before easing. We’ve also seen a steady SE swell across the region today from a Tasman Low parked off the SW end of New Zealand’s South Island, though this swell has generated the latest waves across Northern NSW (4-5ft), with only small surf in SE Qld (2ft, occasional 2-3ft). Winds have been favourably light in the mornings, tending moderate S thru’ SE during the days.

This weekend (Apr 15 - 16)

Our existing SE swell is motoring along nicely across the NSW coast, with some sets up to 4-6ft at exposed locations in Southern NSW, and slightly smaller surf across Northern NSW.

However we are looking at a steady easing trend through Saturday. South facing beaches south of Byron may see early 3-5ft sets but it’ll ease to around 3ft during the day. North of the border, there’s a chance for a few stray 2-3ft sets at some outer points early morning (and bigger bombs at exposed northern ends near 3-4ft) but it’ll also ease here during the day. Expect smaller surf at protected locations and remaining beaches.

That being said, I am also expecting a new E’ly swell to build across all coasts through Saturday - a very distant, infrequent E’ly pulse from a broad, complex system way out in the South Pacific earlier this week. This swell will head towards a peak from Sunday afternoon through Monday with sets around 3-4ft+ but we’ll start to see some of this new energy in the mix during Saturday.

Local conditions are looking great for the weekend with light variable winds and afternoon sea breezes. Mornings will obviously have the best options though.

The three-way merger in the southern Tasman Sea isn’t doing anything interesting from a synoptic perspective so the resulting southerly groundswell for Northern NSW this weekend won’t be anything amazing. South facing beaches south of Byron should see some 3ft sets fill in under the dying SE swell (on Sunday) but to be honest the long range E’ly swell will probably be the more dominant source by this time (though keep in mind that it may be undersized early Sunday).

Next week (Apr 17 onwards)

Monday and Tuesday are looking unreal. Winds should remain light in the mornings ahead of moderate afternoon sea breezes, and the distant E’ly swell should reach a peak with occasional 3-4ft+ sets at exposed beaches in most areas, possibly a little smaller on the Mid North Coast, but not much.

This swell will be very inconsistent, so keep this in mind when surveying your local as there’ll be long spell so much smaller waves, but there should be fantastic options up and down the coast.

Another factor to consider - distant groundswells are often much more difficult to surf at the popular regional points, as there are less waves in every set and the longer breaks between sets allows the lineup to consolidate (compared to a pumping trade swell, which is much more consistent and delivers far more waves per session).

Short story: aim for the wide open beaches over the coming days, as light local winds - certainly not a regular feature for such an extended period of time, as we are experiencing- will allow plenty of options and you’ll rack up many more waves. 

The E’ly swell will ease slowly from Tuesday afternoon onwards. In fact, the fetch generating this swell looks like it'll remain anchored across the South Pacific for quite some time so we're probably looking at this event "leveling out" at a very inconsistent 2-3ft from Wednesday through next weekend. By the end of the week it'll really start to become inconsistent though.  

The first half of the week will also see small, easing S’ly swells across Northern NSW from our current system in the lower Tasman Sea, though it’ll really be a neglected secondary pulse. So it’s not worth detailing in too much detail.

From Wednesday onwards the trades will redevelop through the Coral Sea and should also contribute some small short range energy north of Ballina, though no great size is expected until very late in the week or (more likely) the weekend once this fetch broadens out.

The longer term outlook is interesting with a broad trough expected to develop across the Vanuatu region mid-late week, of which we could see a smaller trough develop in the central/northern Tasman Sea around the same time too. So there’s reasonable potential for a mix of trade swells from both fetches, which suggests a similar range of size between SE Qld and Northern NSW. This swell is due over the weekend and early in the following week. However local winds (likely moderate to fresh SE) will probably confine the best waves to the outer points. 

The next Southern Ocean frontal passage worthy of a decent increase in S'ly swell is not likely until next weekend, or early in the following week. 

Let’s take a closer look at all of this on Monday.