South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 5th March)

Best Days: Plenty of fun waves across the Gold Coast points throughout the entire forecast period. Looking a little better for the Sunny Coast this weekend (compared to this week) thanks to more E in the swell direction. Still a little windy though. Large surf in Northern NSW next Tues/Wed (and some fun Goldy points) with a Tasman Low and there are stacks of other swell prospects beyond that from cyclone activity in the South Pacific. 

Recap: Pumping surf along points on the Gold Coast and in the Far Northern NSW. Not quite enough size for the Sunshine Coast points to work properly, and south from Coffs winds have been more favourable allowing good conditions across many reefs, beaches and points. Size has been up to 6-8ft south from Byron, smaller south of Coffs, and around 4ft in SE Qld. 

This week (Apr 6 - 7)

Note: Forecaster Notes will be brief this week because Craig’s on leave

In brief points today:

1. The ridge responsible for the current swell is weakening so we’ll see slowly easing wave heights from this source through Thursday. Still enough size for some fun waves down the Gold Coast and Far Northern NSW points.

2. Local winds will remain from the southern quadrant next few days but lighter; which increases the chances for regional morning SW breezes.

3. The models every so slightly eased back the strength of the E’ly fetch out of Cook Strait on Tuesday, so the resulting E/SE swell for Thursday afternoon will be a little smaller and a little later in its arrival - biggest in Northern NSW with 4-5ft sets, probably not showing until very late Thursday i.e. appearing most prominently Friday morning. Expect smaller surf north of the border in the 2-3ft range. 

4. A much smaller reinforcing S/SE swell is expected over the weekend (from a small, poorly aligned fetch off the SW tip of New Zealand) but it’ll only glance the coast. South swell magnets south of Byron may see occasional 2-3ft sets on Saturday morning. Not much afterwards.

5. A rebuilding trough of low pressure over the Coral Sea will freshen trade winds in our mid range swell window and thus kick up a fun E’ly swell for SE Qld this weekend. Surf size should manage 3ft+ across open SC beaches, 2-3ft+ on the Gold and Tweed Coasts and then smaller surf as you track south of Ballina. This swell should hold into Monday but will then ease after that.

6. A vigorous cold front will cross the Southern NSW coast overnight Sunday with a deep Tasman Low forming off the South Coast Monday. Models are split on the timing and have shunted the Monday increase to Tuesday. Either way we’re looking at a lot of size (6-8ft south facing beaches in Northern NSW?) and a lot of wind from the south too. It will also strengthen a ridge across the SE Qld region and build surf size across the outer points to 2-3ft+ by late Tuesday afternoon thru’ Wednesday.

7. This Tasman Low will meander through the Southern Tasman Sea and thus dominate our surf through the middle of the week too. In fact it could linger in the SE Tasman mid-week and supply a solid SE swell later next week or early in the weekend.

4. A couple of cyclones are likely to develop in the South Pacific over the forecast period, the first one well SE of Fiji later this week which looks like it’ll tie in with a broad high well east of NZ, generating an incredible E’ly fetch - that’ll be partially shadowed across the East Coast by New Zealand (mainly the Mid North Coast, less-so the SE Qld and Far Northern NSW coasts). D’oh! In any case we’ll probably see some good long range E’ly swell from it (later next week or the weekend); early indications around 4-5ft at open beaches. The second cyclone may develop SW of Fiji early next week and could push into a more favourable part of our swell window during the week. Still early days though.