South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 22nd March)

Best Days: Thurs: easing trade swell in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW with early light winds. Only small south of Yamba. Sat/Sun: fun SE swell across Northern NSW with mainly light winds. Only small in SE Qld. 

Recap: Our recent trade swell has maintained fun 3ft surf across SE Qld and Northern NSW coasts for the last few days, though tricky winds have caused a few problems. There have been pockets of fun conditions with winds tending light and variable at times but we’re still some time away from a significant improvement in surface conditions.

This week (Mar 23rd - 24th)

Our current trade swell is now starting to ease and will continue a downwards trend into Thursday and Friday.

Thursday morning may still see a few 2-3ft sets across the Sunshine Coast, and to a lesser degree the Gold Coast but for the most part we’ll be into the 2ft range and a possible further easing trend is possible during the day. South of Byron, wave heights will become a little smaller as you head towards the Mid North Coast, as the trades have been mainly aimed at northern regions for the last day or so. 

A developing Tasman Low off Southern NSW is pushing a southerly change across the NSW coast at the moment, and it’s expected to reach the Mid North Coast early Thursday morning and the Far North Coast into the afternoon. However it’ll only be shallow and probably won’t do much to alleviate us from this recent spell of humid weather (which is annoying!). 

So, surfers in Northern NSW will be well advised to make the most of the early surf on Thursday ahead of the change as there won’t be much on offer behind it during the afternoon - no major swell increase (until Friday) and moderate to fresh S’ly breezes. 

A weak ridge will then push across SE Qld into Friday morning though no major strength is expected. This should result in early light to moderate SW in many regions, tending moderate to fresh S’ly during the day but then easing late afternoon. South of Byron, winds will be of a similar directional trend but with less strength.

The Tasman Low is also generating a new S/SE swell that’s expected to build through Friday ahead of a peak later that afternoon and holding through Saturday. In actual fact, the best part of this low doesn’t eventuate in the central Tasman Sea until Friday - in the central/southern Tasman Sea - though it will also be at a time when the low is starting a clockwise rotation outside of our swell window. As such the best waves from this low will occur over the weekend. 

But back to Friday, there’ll be a secondary swell in the water too - a new long period S’ly swell generated by a sneaky polar low off the ice shelf, well south of South Australia on Monday.

This is a very unusual part of our swell window, and frequently goes unnoticed, usually because of - as will be the case this Friday - a concurrent, similarly-sized but otherwise unrelated swell event from the same quadrant. 

Both swells should provide an afternoon peak in size around 3ft+ at south facing beaches south of Byron, with smaller surf early morning. Beaches with less southerly exposure will also be smaller. 

I am doubtful that these southerly swells will have much, if any impact north of the border, away from the region’s handful of south swell magnets. As such, Friday is looking to remain very small with residual trade swell in the 1-2ft range at exposed beaches in SE Qld. Aim for an early surf before the southerly breeze develops.  

This weekend (Mar 25th - 26th)

Let’s kick off with Northern NSW first. 

Friday’s long period S’ly swell will ease slowly from Saturday onwards, and therefore shouldn’t be viewed as a primary swell source. Set waves will be very inconsistent anyway, and only south swell magnets south of Byron will pick up any appreciable size - maybe some early 2-3ft sets, becoming smaller during the day.

However, Saturday should see very good waves from the Tasman Low. The models are estimating around 3ft across the region, though I think this could be a slight under-call at reliable south swell magnets south of Byron, with possible 3-4ft sets at times, easing a little into the afternoon. A secondary pulse is expected through Sunday though it’ll be smaller in size, mainly around the 2-3ft mark at south facing beaches south of Byron and smaller elsewhere. Expect an easing trend throughout the day. 

Local conditions are looking pretty good both days as we’ll be under the influence of a weak pressure gradient, so expect early light offshore winds and afternoon sea breezes. 

Unfortunately, SE Qld isn’t looking too crash hot this weekend.

The Tasman Low will be positioned too far south, with its primary fetch displaying too much southerly orientation to grace anywhere north of the border with quality waves.

Exposed northern ends and south swell magnets may pick up a few stray 2ft+ sets on Saturday but for the most part we’re looking at slow, weak 1-2ft waves at the majority of the Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches both days. At least conditions will be clean with light winds. 

Next week (Mar 27th onwards)

There’s nothing major standing out in the long term forecast at this stage. We’ve got a quick southerly change on the cards for Tuesday afternoon (in Northern NSW) but no real substance behind it. 

The Tasman Low's track over the weekend pushes it near New Zealand and the models are suggesting a small but tight E'ly fetch along its southern flank could generate some small mid-period SE swell for Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday in the 2ft to maybe 2-3ft range, but mainly at beaches south of about Coffs Harbour (the fetch will probably be aimed towards southern NSW, which means smaller surf across the Far North and SE Qld coasts). 

This is quite some time away and these erratic model suggestions have a habit of disappearing from model run to model run, but I'll keep an eye on it in Monday's update. 

Otherwise, I’ll be keeping an eye on a lingering tropical Qld system that looks to affect the central to northern coastal region for much of the week. The models don’t have it developing any kind of interesting system within cooee of our swell window, but it’l be a useful source of moisture and won’t take much for a merging system to reactivate some significant developments in this neck of the woods.