South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 10th March)

Best Days: Sat: strong combo of easing E/SE swell and rebuilding SE tending S/SE swell, biggest in Northern NSW but still more than enough for inconsistent waves on the outer SE Qld points. Sun: light offshore winds and smaller surf, biggest in Northern NSW. Wed onwards: building trade swell though mainly onshore at times. 

Recap: Has is been worth the wait? Depends on your paddling ability and stamina I suppose. This week’s large SE tending E/SE groundswell has displayed a strong sweep just about everywhere so whilst the waves have been cooking - and make no mistake, it’s been pumping right across many breaks in Northern NSW and SE Qld - there’s been a lot of work required to catch waves. Thursday eased temporarily in size to 3-4ft across SE Qld, but maintained 6ft sets across exposed beaches in Northern NSW. Today we’ve seen a strong renewal of E/SE groundswell across the region with strong 6-8ft sets in Northern NSW and 4ft+ bombs across exposed beaches and outer points in SE Qld. However sheltered locations north of the border are much smaller. Winds are still fresh S'ly so the points are by far the best option. 

Solid Snapper this afternoon

This weekend (Mar 11th - 12th)

The Tasman Low is beginning to weaken today though interestingly, a fetch of strong winds are rotating clockwise from its southern flank to its western flank. This fetch is currently SE, aimed into Southern NSW but will swing more S/SE this afternoon (aimed towards Northern NSW) and then S’ly by Saturday (aimed into the Coral Sea). 

As such we’re looking at plenty of strong swell to kick start the weekend, being a mix of easing E/SE groundswell from today and rebuilding SE tending S/SE swell from the fetch in the Tasman Sea. This should maintain 6ft sets at open beaches on Saturday - mainly those facing south - in Northern NSW, south of Byron. I don’t think these locations will see much of a size drop during the day (because the easing E/SE swell will be replaced with new SE tending S/SE swell) however beaches will less southerly exposure - some some points - will trend downwards throughout the day.

However as the E/SE swell component eases and the dominant swell direction tends more SE through S/SE, we’ll see a more marked reduction in size throughout SE Qld. I’m still reasonably confident for occaisonal 3-4ft sets at open beaches and outer points on Saturday morning but it'll be much less consistent than today, and size will ease throughout the day; likely down to 2-3ft by lunchtime at these locations with smaller surf elsewhere.  

Winds are expected to ease throughout Saturday though Northern NSW will still maintain a healthy southerly flow. We’re locally to see plenty of regions with SW winds early morning - especially north of the border - but expect southerlies to redevelop during the day.

On Sunday, surf size will ease a little more and winds will swing light offshore in all areas ahead of a freshening NE breeze into the afternoon. Open south facing beaches in Northern NSW should still maintain 3-5ft sets at times, easing to 3-4ft throughout the day (expect smaller surf elsewhere) and north of the border, we’re looking at inconsistent 2ft+ sets across exposed northern ends and some outer points, with tiny conditions at protected locations. 

Surf size will also ease here during the day too, as well as becoming bumpier under the freshening NE breeze. Thus, the early bird will most definitely deliver the worm on Sunday.

Next week (Mar 13th)

There’s been a bit of a swing in the model guidance for next week, though still largely within what was discussed on Wednesday. 

A broad inland trough across the eastern states on Sunday and a weak Tasman high will slowly freshen NE winds about the western half of the Tasman Sean and even the southern Coral Sea on Monday as it moves slowly eastwards. There probably won’t be enough strength for an initial kick in swell at first, but the high is modelled to strengthen through Tuesday, driving a broad ridge into the East Coast through the middle of the week. 

This is expected to maintain position all week through the northern Tasman Sea and in doing so should slow increase trade swells about the coast. We’re looking at a building trend kicking in on Wednesday morning, reaching 3ft across most coasts by the afternoon and then about 4ft into Thursday. 

Local winds won’t be great though, mainly E/SE and fresh at times with little chance of localised offshore winds (except in and around local microscale weather systems, which really can’t be identified at long or even short range timescales). 

Looking further ahead and there’s some loose agreement between the models for a tropical low to form off the Capricornia coast later next week, and this certainly has the potential to evolve into a more significant swell generating system for SE Qld and Northern NSW from Friday through next weekend and early in the following week. However, it’s still a very long time away so let’s reassess the model output on Monday.

Have a great weekend!