South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 8th March)

Best Days: Great waves every day until Monday (when we'll see small residual swells and N'ly winds). Expect sustained pointbreak action Thursday/Friday and even Saturday, with the beachbreaks becoming a good options from possibly Saturday and more likely Sunday (banks permitting of course).  

Recap: Surf size built from the S/SE on Tuesday, with this direction resulting in a large range in wave heights across the coast. SE Qld beaches and outer points increased from 2ft+ early up to 3-4ft into the afternoon though there were lengthy lulls at times. In Northern NSW, wave heights varied considerably depending on exposure to the south, but we had some reports of 10ft+ surf across the Mid North Coast. The Far North Coast seemed a little undercooked (from my eyes) through the afternoon, however the Tweed buoy recorded a jump in peak periods to 15 seconds just before lunch, and a sharp increase in wave heights from dinner time through midnight (with Hsig over 3m). The Brisbane buoy held around 4-5m throughout the day but Hmax nudged 10m (!) just after midnight, likely associated with a strengthening SE airstream during the evening that reached peak wind gusts of 41kts at Cape Moreton around 9:30pm. Today we’ve seen a much stronger groundswell component across the region, with the swell direction also shifting more SE. Wave heights have ebbed and flowed all day with some lully periods; for the most part SE Qld open beaches and outer points seemed to be within forecast size expectations around 4-5ft, whilst exposed south swell magnets south Byron were pushing 8ft+ at times. Winds have remained fresh and gusty out of the S/SE confining the only surfable options to protected points, where surf size is much smaller. 

Morning action from Kirra, via our Greenmount surfcam

Afternoon action at The Pass, from our Byron Bay surfcam

This week (Mar 9th - 10th)

No changes at all to the forecast issued Monday.

Model guidance has held this Tasman low in a slow moving position over the eastern Tasman Sea, and a further re-intensification today will generate a final pulse of E/SE for Friday. 

This means surf size will fall away into Thursday, but in saying that it’s still going to remain quite sizeable at first - open beaches in Northern NSW should still see set waves well in excess of 6ft at times (maybe 6-8ft at reliable swell magnets), however these exposed locations will be wind affected under a gusty S’ly breeze. Expect smaller, cleaner surf across protected points.

Across SE Qld, surf size will pull back a little from today and may become more inconsistent. Outer points across the Gold and Sunshine Coast should see 3ft to occasionally 4ft at times; exposed northern ends will be bigger but much more wind affected. Protected locations will be smaller, and there's a chance for a slight drop in size throughout the day.

There’s a chance for isolated regions of early light SW winds in a few regions, however the strong gradient flow along the coast is expected to remain in place so for the most part expect fresh and gusty S’ly winds, tending S/SE during the day. 

As for Friday’s swell renewal, we’re looking at a lot of size across Northern NSW as the wavelength draws out and swell heights increase a touch. This should kick up size into the 6-8ft range at most exposed coasts, and a handful of reliable offshore bombies could even push higher than that at times (maybe some rogue ten footers?) if we're lucky. 

The reason for this increase is that surface winds were very strong through the eastern Tasman Sea today, though not extraordinarily so - what kicks this swell potential above standard weather systems is the duration and length of the fetch - it’s rare to see the entire Tasman Sea covered with a stationary easterly fetch for this amount of time.

So when we see fetch re-intensifications of this nature, the surf potential is a little higher as the winds are acting on an already active sea state - meaning it’s not starting from a steady state, which requires more energy to create the same swell size and strength. The periods reflect the new swell quite well but the surf model isn't translating it quite as well due to the smaller swell heights (relative to today, which had a considerable windswell loading). So I have bumped up my figures slightly from the model output. 

Sheltered locations will obviously be much smaller though.

However, as I detailed on Monday, I’m still a little cautious on Friday’s size across SE Qld as the primary fetch alignment will swing a whisker anti-clockwise - away from its swell window. Fortunately, the sheer length and breadth of this fetch - plus its lengthy duration in the Tasman Sea - will override some of these directional deficiencies, but I’m less confident in the surf reaching its predicted heights here than I am in Northern NSW. 

As such, I’m expecting open beaches and outer points to increase back into the 4-5ft range on Friday (against Monday’s estimate of 4-6ft). Essentially it should be very similar to today’s size and conditions but with a smidge more east in the swell direction. 

Overall, we've got continuing large swells for the next few days. Pick and choose your location according to your ability - there’s gonna be a lot of water moving around so it’ll be worth watching the ocean for an extra twenty minutes before you paddle out. 

This weekend (Mar 11th - 12th)

The Tasman Low will weaken through Friday, but with a couple of days for the swell generated by Thursday’s fetch to reach the mainland, this means we’re looking at large surf to kick off the weekend. 

However the trend will be downwards both days; slowly at first on Saturday and then more rapidly on Sunday. Saturday should see early 6ft bombs at exposed beaches in Northern NSW, with light to moderate SW winds tending moderate to maybe fresh S’ly throughout the day. By the afternoon, expect much less consistent 4-5ft sets at open beaches. Expect smaller surf at protected locations.

On Sunday the early morning session should hold around 3-4ft at open beaches in Northern NSW, with an easing to 2-3ft during the day. Early light offshore winds - probably NW - will keep conditions smooth but we’ll see a NE breeze crop up into the afternoon. Let's hope the sand hasn't been decimated, eh?

Across SE Qld, we’ll see a similar easing trend from 3-4ft Saturday morning at open beaches and outer points to a much less consistent 2-3ft throughout the day (with moderate SW winds tending S’ly). A further easing trend is expected on Sunday with wave heights likely to bottom out around 1-2ft by late Sunday afternoon. Fortunately, the models have evaporated Monday’s suggest for a possible fresh N’ly breeze on Sunday; instead we’re looking at early light NW winds and afternoon NE sea breezes.

All in all, it's looking like one of the better weekends in Northern NSW in quite a while, and even SE Qld should deliver the goods (though mainly on Saturday). 

Next week (Mar 13th)

There's nothing major standing out for next week - the most notable feature is a developing surface trough over the eastern states from Sunday onwards that will freshen N’ly winds about Northern NSW and possibly SE Qld through Monday and Tuesday. Urgghhh.

There’s a chance that we may see the formation of a small local swell generating system within this trough, but it’s early days just yet (Southern NSW is usually a more likely beneficiary from these kinds of setups). 

See you Friday!