South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 27th February)

Best Days: Fun waves all week with a blend of building swells from the east, and mainly light winds. Thursday for the most size.

Recap: Friday’s long range E’ly groundswell held into Saturday morning with occasional 3ft+ sets at exposed beaches north of Byron, and smaller surf to the south. Winds were a little tricky in some regions but there were periods of early light S/SW winds, allowing for clean conditions across the various points. Size eased into Sunday and further into today, with similar winds from the southern quadrant both days (early S/SW, tending S/SE). We’re down to a slow, inconsistent 1-2ft across SE Qld beaches with marginally smaller surf south of Byron Bay. 

This week (Feb 28th - Mar 3rd)

A high pressure system across the south-eastern Tasman Sea and a broad area of low pressure across the tropical waters north of New Caledonia are creating an easterly squeeze between the two. 

Well, ‘squeeze’ is a slight exaggeration - it’s more of a gentle hold for now - but the point being is that we’re seeing easterly developing across a large percentage of our Northern Tasman and South Pacific swell windows, which will deliver some fun mid-week waves across the coast.

The actual wind speeds through the Northern Tasman Sea won’t be spectacular, but to be honest I’m more in favour of broad, consistent fetches over large distances than super strong, tightly embedded fetches around singular low pressure systems. The resulting surf is smaller but the coastal spread is much broader, the consistency is higher and the lines are often more peaky, well suited to the beach breaks.

As mentioned in Friday’s notes, we’re also looking at a broad trough developing along the breadth of the NSW coast - I previously referred to this as an ‘easterly dip’, but it now looks to be a little more pronounced than Friday’s models were indicating. And that’s not a bad thing - it’ll maintain light winds across many parts of the coast through the middle of the week.

This easterly dip does have a negative for Qld and North Coast surfers though: it will (as suggested on Friday) steer the primary fetch down into Southern NSW, eventually forming a Tasman Low off the Southern NSW coast around Friday. So, we are still looking at a sizeable swell around Saturday but the most size will probably be confined to locations south of about Seal Rocks.

As for our surf potential in SE Qld and Northern NSW, we’re looking at a gradual increase through Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a peak in size on Thursday, before size trends down slowly into Friday. Wave heights should reach 3ft+ at most open beaches during Thursday's peak, with smaller surf running down the points. 

The only anomaly to this is the Mid North Coast, which may pick up some sideband E'ly swell on Tuesday from a secondary fetch develop to the east (and tracking south-west, generating E/NE swell for Southern NSW). Our model has a brief pulse to 3-4ft in the afternoon, which is probably a little optimistic - however we should certainly see an increase from today's small waves (it’s already starting to trend slowly upwards late this afternoon). 

As for winds - apart from Tuesday where the Mid North Coast may see a brief period of onshores thanks to the aforementioned fetch clipping the region enroute to Southern NSW - most coasts should see light variable winds each and every day. Keep in mind that this also implies some form of onshore at times, but in general, wind strengths should be around ten knots or less, and likely offshore in the mornings. So conditions should be fun across the beach breaks. 

This weekend (Mar 4th - 5th)

It’s looking like we’ll see a very slow easing trend of easterly swell this weekend.

The Tasman Low forming off the Southern NSW coast is expected to be aimed fair and square into southern regions, so I’m doubtful we’ll see much surf north of Seal Rocks from this source on Saturday (though, there is always a chance the models will change between now and then). 

During the second half of this week, the E’ly fetch in the Northern Tasman and South Pacific will slowly retreat eastwards as the coastal trough expands across the western Tasman Sea. The E'ly fetch will still maintain some strength but as the head of the fetch becomes positioned further from the mainland, the size potential will ease and so too will the consistency of the swell.

Additionally, model guidance is suggesting a northerly flow will crop up on Sunday, so Saturday looks to be the pick of the weekend with the most size (inconsistent 2ft+ sets at open beaches) and light variable winds with sea breezes. 

Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.

Next week (Mar 6th onwards)

Although the weekend’s Tasman Low developments are unlikely to favour our region, the models are reinforcing the broadscale blocking pattern by redeveloping this Tasman low through next week, possibly generating a bigger secondary swell for Southern NSW. And at this stage there’s a greater chance that these developments will have a much greater impact on the North Coast, and possibly even influence SE Qld to some degree. 

Anyway, it’s still early days but at the moment we’re looking at a very active and possibly sizeable period of surf through the start of March.