It’s the end of January, and we’re still waiting for the season to break
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 30th January)
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Best Days: N'ly winds will cause problems right throughout the period. Tuesday has a small trade swell for SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, then the next trade swell will build slowly from Friday onwards (peaking early/mid next week).
Recap: SE Qld was tiny on Saturday, but Northern NSW saw a small intermittent south swell all weekend from a distant polar low off the ice shelf below NZ earlier in the week. A short range E’ly swell finally increased across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW on Sunday afternoon and has persisted into today with peaky 1-2ft sets. Winds are now back to the north following a generally variable weekend all ‘round.
This week (Jan 31st - Feb 3rd)
It’s the end of January, and we’re still waiting for the season to break. Really?
Including today, we have nine consecutive days of northerlies forecast by the computer models across Northern NSW (all the way through until next Wednesday morning, when they’ll swing light E’ly).
Winds will be strongest across the Mid North Coast and lighter in SE Qld though still just enough to cause a few problems. Only the Sunshine Coast may not quite see as many problems from this source as other locations, with winds likely to be lighter and more E’ly at times.
As for surf: let’s kick off with the low hanging fruit first.
Our southern swell window is inactive and the Tasman Sea has nothing on the cards; the only source is our long standing polar low S/SE of New Zealand that’ll continue to pump out tiny lines across swell magnets for the foreseeable future (well, a few little waves over the next few days, then a break until another tiny pulse around Sunday that’ll persist for a few days again early next week).
So, we must look towards our eastern swell window for new activity. And coastal northerlies notwithstanding, we do have some surf on the way.
The trades are slowly broadening and lengthening through the Northern Tasman Sea and out into the South Pacific. This is already generating some small waves that will peak in size on Tuesday before easing on Wednesday. The Sunshine Coast will see the biggest surf (inconsistent 2ft, maybe 2-3ft surf) but wave heights will be progressively smaller as you head south - around 2ft on the Gold/Tweed Coasts then smaller south from Byron Bay.
Surf size will ease into Wednesday and Thursday, levelling out a half a foot or so (maybe a little more on the SC) below Tuesday’s peak, before the next round of trade swell rebuilds slowly from Friday onwards. This won’t really kick into gear per se but we should see little more consistency in the surf to finish the week.
That’s if you can ignore the northerlies.
As a side note, expect some small N'ly windswell across the Mid North Coast all week, though noting to get too excited about.
This weekend (Feb 4th - 5th)
It’s a slow steady upwards trend all weekend out of the east.
Saturday should build to 2-3ft across the Sunshine Coast, but it’ll be smaller around 2ft on the Gold/Tweed Coasts and smaller again south of Byron. Sunday should see slightly bigger waves (half to one foot on top of Saturday) across all locations.
As mentioned earlier, then main problems are the winds. SE Qld should see light variable winds tending E’ly not he Sunshine Coast and NE on the Gold Coast but south of Byron they’ll freshen from the north both days.
Next week (Feb 6th onwards)
The weekend’s upwards trend in E’ly swell is expected to plateau through Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. The Sunshine Coast should see sets of around 4ft, up to 3ft on the Gold/Tweed Coasts and then 2-3ft across remaining Northern NSW coasts.
Unfortunately northerlies are a risk early in the week but I’ll have an update on this in Wednesday’s outlook.
Comments
That's gone and done it !
Most depressive report i have ever seen.
Just horrid! The cold and murky water at the end (will there be an end?) Of the northerly spell will be the icing on the cake.
The horrible run of conditions will break and we will see pumping waves from the 10th of Feb. I haven't looked at any models, but that's when I leave to go overseas... so it's bound to start pumping!
I appreciate the sacrifice adam. Any chance you can move your trip forward ? My family are getting pretty sick of me whinging about northerlies
Never mind Adam. I am holidaying at a protected Qld point starting on the 10th of Feb for 10 days so that should counterbalance your holiday and there'll be a continuation of the northerly patterns.
Few reasonable beachie banks around this morning, and if the wind backs off overnight it could be ok..
What is the likely effect of this on the condition of the banks?
*ucked up...
Looking forward to Big Wednesday next week should be 2-3foot and maxing out...
Far out what have we been reduced to people? Sacrifice the goats, offer up your virgin daughters... this has to stop!!!
Rockhopper, it's time to get on the bat phone and call Huey....and to the rain gods for my lawn. It's looking worse than the surf
I'm going spare here. Can anyone remember a worse period for nth nsw / se qld?
June 2016 bank buster black NE event --> since that, one of the worst winters in memory --> usual garbage spring that has extended its claws until February!!?? 7 months.
I reckon stop forecasting ………….end rant
I think we are in uncharted waters here as far as this summer. I expect all kinds of weather records will be broken as far as heat in NSW goes......which is a symptom of these unending northerlies and lack of normal trade flows.
Yep, we only need 2 more days recorded over 35.5 at Observation Hill in Sydney for it to be the hottest summer ever.
Today may be one of those and again Sunday.. We're only at the start of February as well!
Ben, your 9 days of northerlies doesn't include the bonus nor'easter that the mid north coast had on Sunday. That will be 10 days of rubbish with cold water to come....
Actually Coffs AWS shows that Saturday was NE through the afternoon too.
So, eleven days!
Fun 2, almost 3ft, beachies this morning. A few more hours of overnight offshore would have been nice but I'll take it.
anyone know a nice cool dark cave I can go live in for a month or so until this is all over?
Haha That's gold. I am just counting down the days till my indo trip.
There will be a slow increase in swell..... Very slow...... But for the sunny coast over the next week, the good thing is it will be straight east swell.... So that opens up many options..
The way I read it, is at least a week of 3 footish surf coming up.... Tha should get everyone fit.
All due respect, it's hard times ...
But harden the f*ck up everyone
Report from NZ. Worse summer I can remember (weather and waves). Water in and around the north of the north island has been unseasonably cold. I think this is the problem for us and northern nsw and queensland as any low action from the tropics hits the cold water and just piss's off. Good news is the water is finally starting to warm up (broke out the short arm 2mm in the weekend) so things might start changing on both sides of the tasman, fingers crossed
Thanks for the info BH.. glad to see it's not just us that's been suffering. SSTs certainly have an influence on the development and position of low pressure systems though there are probably other factors affecting your region's poor surf as the swell window is a little broader (depending on which coast you are on, obviously).
Would love a couple of years to do a PhD on this though.
Best looking morning on the Sunshine Coast in a long time.
Fun clean beachies on Sunny Coast this morning, especially early on the lower tide
Yep, stoked with the early offerings here this morning.
Many parts of NZ have had a poor summer, but since Christmas Eve I've only had 3 days of no waves.
Now I'm on the North Coast looking for protected northern corners, along with everybody else, longing for an honest reef or point wave.
Last time I was here was in early June during "that" swell. Lennox isn't quite looking the same this time...
And BH, it's not just cold SSTs, it's the entire synoptic and planetary scale pattern that's locked in a typical El Niño spring pattern - only it's not spring and not El Niño :-/
prediction.. lots of gold coast babies arriving sept/oct 2017
no surf maybe more sex?
Shit I'm fairly antsy for the next report buddy. Optimistic that this rubbish will turn the fuck about any day. Always tune in to the internet around this time of day to schedule my week around the possibility of any rideable waves.NO pressure but I Feel like a damm junkie when i don't get the goodies. Long story short wheres the report? wave pusher, god like information director, reader of wave guy. No malice intended
its 7pm mate
I'm guessing you don't subscribe ?
is that an issue???
Its been up for hours
1.26 PM i got my report.
Does anyone know why the report isnt showing up for some of us??
Question. If you pay do you get the surf reports at a certain time on a certain day consistently each week ?
You will certainly get it emailed to you once they get a chance to complete it if you subscribe.
Likely i.t issue as no response from the swellnet men either.
Certainly hope everything with swellnet is okay?
Maybe the "copy and paste" for the last 3 months was enough, or they've been blown away by the northerlies!
Seem to have same problem here Hastoes - not sure about subscribers receiving earlier reports than general punters. Am just trying to be patient.
Really like the comprehensive detail of these reports though. Thanks for your work Ben - love it!
Agree with thread of posts here too - FNC conditions have been as bad as ever I can remember for this time of year...!!
Bring it Huey!
Just back online.. my bad, I mapped the latest notes to the Sydney forecasts and didn't pick up the error (it was published around 1pm). Sorry for the inconvenience!