South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 25th January)

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Best Days: No great days due to mainly small swells. Thurs/Fri have the most potential in Northern NSW with a small series of southerly swells. Next week has a trade swell on the cards for SE Qld though local winds look dicey.

Recap: A small trade swell built across SE Qld yesterday and today though came in just under size expectations. The Sunshine Coast managed 2ft sets whilst the Gold and Tweed Coasts struggled with slow, weak 1-2ft waves. Very little was reported south of Byron. Freshening northerly winds on Tuesday gave way to early offshore breezes across SE Qld today, though some parts of the Far Northern NSW coast didn’t experience such joy with the Cape Byron weather station recording northerlies straight through the night and into this morning. A series of small long range S’ly swells also came in at the bottom end of forecast expectations; closer to 2ft than 2ft+ and very inconsistent across Northern NSW south swell magnets. However conditions have been a little better across the Mid North Coast than further north, owing to mainly light variable winds.

Peaky two footers at Sunshine Beach this afternoon

Still some two foot sets from the south in Coffs Harbour

Not much surf at Cabarita on the Tweed Coast, via our new surfcam (click here)

This week (Jan 26th - 27th)

Small swells will pad out the rest of the working week. Though conditions should be workable with mainly light variable winds. 

A small S’ly groundswell will push across Northern NSW on Thursday, reaching a peak across the Mid North Coast late afternoon and probably the Far North Coast on Friday morning. 

This energy will have originated from the parent low to yesterday’s change, which tracked below Tasmania on Tuesday. The fetch around the low wasn’t ideally positioned but it was very strong and we’ll see a small degree of energy glance the coast during the day. Reliable south swell magnets south of Byron should pick up inconsistent 2-3ft+ sets but most other beaches will be much smaller. 

Although the models are showing a northerly airstream for both days, wind speeds should remain light so conditions should be OK. 

Across SE Qld, we may see some small lingering trade swell across the Sunshine Coast on Thursday morning it’ll ease after that and become tiny. Not much size is expected elsewhere so you’ll have to be pretty keen for a wave north of the border over the next few days. Even south swell magnets will struggle to pick up much size from the expected small new S’ly swell (due across this region by Friday morning) so keep your expectations low to finish the week.

This weekend (Jan 28th - 29th)

A minor strengthening of the trades south of new Caledonia late Friday may generate a small pulse of trade swell for SE Qld later Saturday and into Sunday but no major size is expected.

Elsewhere, we’re really not expecting a lot of surf, with mainly small weak leftover energy from the south at best. 

Winds are expected to be light and variable tending moderate E/NE across SE Qld, with freshening N/NE winds across the the Mid North Coast that could become gusty into Sunday afternoon.

All in all, it’s probably a weekend better spent doing other things away from the coast.

Next week (Jan 30th onwards)

The trades will freshen across the Northern Tasman Sea early next week, and this is expected to build trade swells across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW.

The models have pegged back the fetch a little since Monday’s outlook but I’m still hopeful for the Sunshine Coast to reach 3-4ft, with 3ft surf on the Gold and Tweed Coasts and 2-3ft surf across remaining Northern NSW coasts. Size should build from Monday toward a peak around Wednesday or Thursday. 

However, the trade flow is expected to remain quite some distance away for the mainland which allows the chance for northerlies to develop across the coastal margin. So for now, keep your expectations low for next week’s swell. 

Let’s hope Friday’s updated forecast notes have some better news!