South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 14th December)

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Best Days: Thurs: chance for a few small lumpy beachbreaks as local winds temporarily ease. Sun: small late building SE swell that could provide some OK waves across the outer SE Qld points. Mon: small trade swell in SE Qld. Next Tues/Wed/Thurs/Fri/Sat: decent long range trade swell (local winds pending, looks best Thurs/Fri at this stage) 

Recap: Small peaky trade swells have offered 2-3ft sets across SE Qld beaches over the last few days, with smaller surf south of the border. Winds were light in some areas throughout Tuesday but fresh northerlies have returned today. 

This week (Dec 15th - 16th)

Although the ridge responsible for our small trade swell of the last few days has slowly retreated eastwards, the models are maintaining small levels of east swell from Thursday right through into the weekend. A small drop is likely but it’s possible that there’ll be enough energy to keep the open beaches active for a few more days. 

The reason for this is that despite the relatively near (i.e. southern Coral Sea) fetch weakening, a broader SE fetch across the southern flank of a tropical disturbance near Fiji is pumping out some sideband energy our way. Most of this fetch is aimed into the Vanuatu but it appears that the stationary nature of this fetch is overriding some of the directional deficiencies. So it should stop the open beaches form becoming flat. 

But… local winds will create issues. 

A shallow trough will move up into the Southern NSW coast overnight, stalling near Seal Rocks on Thursday morning and direction southerly winds north to about Port Macquarie. This will temporarily disrupt the existing northerly flow though without a synoptic offshore it’s hard to imagine surface quality will be great, even if the local wind completely abates. 

And then as this trough moves south into Friday, northerlies will resume across the broader region. 

So, Thursday has a chance for some lumpy open beaches - mainly in SE Qld as there’ll be very little trade swell south from about Byron or Ballina, and no other real swell sources for much of Thursday. 

Very late Thursday may see the leading edge of a small long period S’ly groundswell reaching the Lower Mid North Coast, originating from a tight low/frontal progression south of Tasmania today. It’s more likely to start showing through Friday and into Saturday but by then the northerly will be up so you’ll have to tuck into a sheltered northern corner. South swell magnets south from Byron could see some 2-3ft+ sets from this source on Friday (expect a later arrival in the north) but we won’t see much surf from it elsewhere.

This weekend (Dec 17th - 18th)

Northerlies will continue on Saturday, wrecking the final stages of Friday’s southerly swell. Reliable south swell magnets south of Byron may see early 2-3ft sets but it’ll ease during the day. Keep your expectations low.

Elsewhere these northerlies will create problems in SE Qld on Saturday, which is a shame as we should continue to see a small trade swell.

Sunday has a little more potential. We’ll probably see the trade energy maintaining inconsistent 2ft sets across most of the region (it may spread south to the Mid North Coast by the weekend, owing to its longevity and distant source), but more importantly - a gusty S’ly change is expected to push up the coast during the morning.  

It’ll probably be into Coffs or Yamba by dawn and then the Gold Coast by late morning, with southerlies expected to reach 20-25kts through the afternoon across all locations. Westerly winds will freshen ahead of the change.

A S/SE windswell will build late in the day, it’ll be horribly bumpy in Northern NSW (so protected southern corners will be the only option with the minor E’ly trade swell), however we may see some small late runners across the outer SE Qld points. Don’t get your hopes up - as we‘ll be starting from a very small base - but there’s a chance for a few 2ft+ sets for the late session.

Next week (Dec 19th onwards)

Sunday’s southerly change is expected to morph into a decent ridge across the southern Coral Sea, which should be a reasonable producer for some small short range trade swell across SE Qld. This should keep the region active through Monday with 2-3ft+ sets at open beaches and smaller waves across the outer points. 

We’ll see much smaller surf from this source of Byron or Ballina though as the fetch will be mainly aimed at locations north of here.

At the same time, the tropical system near Fiji is expected to broaden considerably (it could become a Tropical Cyclone by Friday or Saturday) and we’re looking at some very useful trade swell for the long term period. In fact this system - because of its stationary position - could produce a relatively long lived event. The TC itself won't be quite inside our swell window but a strong supporting high pressure ridge to the south will be the main engine room for swell generation.

As the short range trade swell from Monday eases into the afternoon and further into Tuesday, it’ll be replaced with building mid-period E/NE swell from our Fijian source. At this stage we’re looking at an extended plateau in the 4ft range across most beaches by about Wednesday or thereabouts (maybe a little smaller across the Mid North Coast), and it’s likely that we’ll see some form of trade swell holding all the way through until next Saturday or maybe Sunday - albeit tapering off slowly in size. 

The key to scoring good waves around this time will be to look for the best winds, and at this stage it appears that we’ll see NE breezes through the first half of the week before southerlies kick in on Thursday. 

I’ll refine all of that in more detail on Friday.