South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 25th November)

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Best Days: Sat/Sun/Mon: good series of S'ly swells, with favourable winds early mornings (Sunny Coast may dip out though). Small E'ly swells across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. Tues/Wed/Thurs: more small S'ly swell, with tricky winds. 

Recap: So, how was that mid-week E/NE swell? SE Qld and Far Northern NSW’s Wednesday peak eased steadily through Thursday, but early morning offered 3-4ft sets at most open beaches with early offshore winds through the morning ahead of a gusty S’ly change. Today surf size has eased a little more, with 2ft+ sets across most open beaches however we’re also seeing a strong building S/SE groundswell in Northern NSW with 4-5ft sets on offer at south facing beaches. Early light offshore winds are now N’ly across the Mid North Coast but E’ly in the north. 

Strong southerly sets at Gallows, Coffs Harbour, this afternoon

This weekend (Nov 26th - 27th)

First things first - local winds are going to create a few problems this weekend. They’ll mainly out of the NE and N so apart from a brief window in the early mornings where we should see a lighter NW flow, expect open beaches and points to suffer. 

Also, I’m of the opinion that the Sunshine Coast may not quite see this period of light NW winds as much as other coasts, as a moderate ridge across the top of a Tasman high may maintain a synoptic easterly flow across the region. So keep your expectations a little low, if you're north of Brisbane (locations from the Gold Coast south should see OK conditions early morning though). 

The current S/SE groundswell moving across Northern NSW is still showing strongly across Southern NSW, which lends credibility to the prospects of some decent leftover energy for Saturday morning - at least in the Far North. However this swell will be easing during the day so aim for the early session for the biggest waves, somewhere around 3-5ft at exposed south swell magnets south of Byron (down to about Yamba or Coffs) with smaller surf to the south. 

I’m not expecting this south swell to do much north of the border; most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches should see slow, inconsistent 1-2ft sets but reliable south swell magnets may rake in a few 2-3ft bombs early. There’ll also be some small NE windswell (from the current fetch) in the water too at open beaches though no major size is expected. A minor distant E’ly swell will also be in the water but it’ll be inconsistent and therefore hard to distinguish from the other swells.

This easing S/SE groundswell will be replaced throughout the afternoon - at least in Northern NSW - but a fresh, slightly smaller south swell should provide 3-4ft sets to south facing beaches (south of Byron) by the afternoon. This swell will have originated from a strong frontal passage through the Lower Tasman Sea today. 

In fact, there are a few new sources of south swell due over the coming days. Saturday afternoon’s pulse should hold through Sunday with solid 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron, and smaller surf elsewhere, being a mix of trade swells and wind swells. As a reference, most SE Qld beaches (away from south swell magnets) should see 1-2ft sets though the early window of light winds may be only brief. 

A slightly stronger southerly groundswell is expected across Southern NSW on Sunday afternoon, and may nose into the lower Mid North Coast in the last few hours of the day but most locations won’t see this new energy until Monday morning. 

Sunday's winds will be similar to Saturday with select regions of early light NW winds ahead of a freshening N’ly tending NE breeze, strongest across the Mid North Coast.

Next week (Nov 28th onwards)

Still no changes to early next week either.

A new southerly swell will push up the coast overnight Sunday, generating strong surf at south facing beaches on Monday morning in the 4-5ft range, south of Byron Bay. Expect smaller surf at beaches not open to the south, and this south swell (as per usual) won’t translate to much north of the border, away from the south swell magnets. 

However there are some small waves due across SE Qld early next week. A strengthening ridge through the Coral Sea won’t be ideally aligned but we’ll still get a small spread from it into Monday, up around 2ft+ across the Sunshine Coast and a little smaller as you head south across the Gold, Tweed and Byron coasts (1-2ft). Similar winds are expected Monday as per the weekend, light early but tending NNE during the day and freshening.

The models are still suggesting the parent low to the weekend’s frontal progression will remain slow moving south of New Zealand over the weekend, and in doing so will display a stationary S/SW fetch that (despite not being very well aligned) should generate a small spread of long period S/SE swell for Tuesday, which will fill in beneath the easing S’ly swell from Monday morning. South facing beaches should still see 3ft sets through Tuesday.

The rest of the week looks tricky with a troughy pattern to the south likely to maintain some form of northerly breeze through Wednesday and Thursday. There are a few small possible swell sources on the charts but they’re likely to move around over the coming days so I’ll leave it to Monday to firm them up. 

However two notable ones are worth mentioning here - a small cut-off low that’s due to track from beneath Tasmania’s swell shadow on Monday should kick up a small south swell for Northern NSW’s south facing beaches on Thursday.

Additionally, I’m keeping my eye on a tropical system in the Coral Sea that is showing signs of a slow, steady southwards trend across the New Caledonian region next week. At this stage the models have it tracking on the windward (eastern) side of new Caledonia, which would predominantly shadow us from any swell potential - but there are other opportunities from this system to consider - an initial small NE swell from this weekend’s developments west of Vanuatu (before it enters the New Cal shadow), arriving late next week and into the weekend - and then some E’ly swell during the first half of the following week, once the system pushes SE of New Caledonia.

Certainly a lot to look forward to in the latest model runs anyway, so more on this in Monday’s notes. 

Have a great weekend!