South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 23rd November)

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Best Days: Thurs: easing E/NE swell with brief window of early light W'ly winds in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, ahead of a developing S'ly change. Fri: strong S'ly swell building across Northern NSW with light winds and sea breezes. Only small in SE Qld. Sat/Sun/Mon: small lingering trade swell in SE Qld, easing S/SE swell early Sat then building S'ly groundswell into Sun and Mon. Only small in SE Qld. 

Recap: Solid E/NE swell built through Thursday and reached a peak through the middle of the day today, with exposed spots across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW pulling in 5ft to occasionally 6ft sets. Winds have been light and variable early, tending moderate throughout the days. Winds swung S’ly across most regions this morning but are around the NE late this afternoon. The Mid North Coast has been entrenched in a N’ly pattern for the last few days, and surf size has been slower to build here but is now showing 4ft sets at NE facing beaches. 

Solid surf at Snapper Rocks today

This week (Nov 24th - 25th)

The fetch responsible for our current swell event has largely exited the swell window, so we’re looking at a slow but steady easing trend from Thursday onwards. Exposed beaches in Far Northern NSW and SE Qld should see early 3-4ft sets, before easing to 2-3ft during the day. Slightly smaller surf is expected across the Mid North Coast. 

Surface conditions are looking good for the dawn patrol across northern regions, but you’ll have to be quick - a gusty S’ly change is expected to track along the Northern NSW coast in the early hours of the morning, reaching Coffs or maybe Yamba around dawn and then the NSW/Qld border by early-mid morning (and then the Sunny Coast by lunchtime). 

Ahead of the change winds will be light W’ly so most locations should be super quick at first light but once the southerlies kick in it’ll be protected points and southern ends for the cleanest conditions.

These southerly winds will generate a fresh short range S’ly swell that should reach 3-4ft at south swell magnets (south of Byron) through the afternoon, but no major quality is expected. Only small swells from this source will reach SE Qld late in the day. 

On Friday, we’re looking at a combination of small residual E/NE swell from today (inconsistent 2ft+ sets across SE Qld early, smaller throughout the day), and a combination of steady short range S’ly swell from Thursday across Northern NSW, and some new long period S’ly groundswell originating from a developing Tasman low east of Tasmania.

The models have tightened up the strength of the Tasman low (since Wednesday), and aligned it a little closer to the mainland, which has ever-so-slightly upped the size potential for Friday - though only south swell magnets will rake in the bulk size due to the strong S’ly swell direction. 

This south swell is expected to reach the Mid North Coast early morning, and the Far North Coast around lunchtime, with both coasts peaking through the afternoon (later in the north). South facing beaches should see set waves somewhere between 4ft and maybe 6ft but with the southerly direction there'll be quite a wide range in size across the coast - with much smaller surf at beaches not open to the south. Expect smaller surf in the morning.

The position and orientation of this low isn’t great for SE Qld so I’m really not expecting much size across most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches (from the south). However very late afternoon should show a few stray 2-3ft sets at exposed south swell magnets north of the border. 

Conditions should be good early with light offshore winds under a weak pressure pattern, but NE sea breezes are expected through the afternoon, strongest across the Mid North Coast. 

This weekend (Nov 26th - 27th)

Friday’s south swell will ease through Saturday, showing biggest early morning across Far Northern NSW (it’ll begin drying up across the Mid North Coast earlier). We should see some early 3-4ft sets here, with smaller surf elsewhere. 

In fact, freshening NE winds off the coast overnight across the top of a Tasman high pressure system may also generate a foot or two of peaky NE windswell for locations south of the Gold Coast.  

Also in the mix on Saturday will be a small undercurrent of distant trade swell from a stationary fetch north-east of New Zealand today.

The overnight NE winds should become light and variable early morning but then freshen again into the afternoon, meaning the early surf will produce the best waves.

Saturday’s easing southerly swell will be replaced by a fresh, building series of southerly swells from late Saturday (Lower Mid North Coast) through Sunday (remainder of Northern NSW coast) thanks to a vigorous frontal passage merging with the Tasman low on Friday. 

At this stage Sunday’s increase should reach 3-4ft at most south facing beaches through the morning, but a second, stronger pulse is expected late afternoon (across the Lower Mid North Coast) that should push 4-5ft. This will show more prominently in the Far North on Monday.

Sunday’s building southerly swells won’t be favourable for SE Qld beaches so we’re looking at mainly small E’ly trade swells across the open beaches, with inconsistent 2ft sets on the more favourable parts of the tide. 

As for Sunday’s conditions, early light winds will pick up from the NE during the day so make the most of the morning clean conditions.  

Next week (Nov 28th onwards)

Sunday’s late new S’ly groundswell should reach a peak early Monday, offering solid 4-5ft surf at south facing beaches (south of Byron) before easing during the day. Expect much smaller surf at remaining beaches due to the swell direction, and we’re unlikely to see much spread into SE Qld beaches either so it’ll remain seasonally small here. 

Unfortunately, it looks like N’ly winds will remain in place for the start of the week.

The parent low to the weekend’s frontal progression is expected to remain slow moving south of New Zealand over the weekend, and in doing so will display a stationary S/SW fetch that (despite not being very well aligned) should generate a small spread of long period S/SE swell around Tuesday. 

The models are not picking this up well, so I’m speculating on this event - but it’s plausible for south facing beaches south of Byron to pick up stray 2-3ft sets. Let’s revise on Friday. 

Otherwise, a series of moderate fronts through the lower Tasman Sea from about Tuesday onwards should supply small to (possibly) moderate south swell through the second half of next week. 

I’ll also bee keeping my eye on a modled tropical system south of the Solomon Islands early next week which could be a very long range (next weekend) source of E/NE swell for SE Qld.

See you on Friday for an update on all of these swells!