South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 21st October)

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Best Days: Tues/Wed/Thurs: strong E/NE swell building Tues, peaking Wed AM, same time winds will go more S'ly, then easing Thurs. Strong, unreal waves on the points. Thurs/Fri: building S'ly swell across Northern NSW. Sat/Sun: small lingering trade swell in SE Qld, easing S/SE swell early Sat then building S'ly groundswell later Sun. 

Recap: Small, slowly building E/NE swell across SE Qld all weekend along with a mix of S’ly quadrant swells in Northern NSW - some trailing S/SE swell early Saturday morning, before a solid long period south swell pushed up Sunday afternoon, holding into today with sets around the 3ft mark at reliable south swell magnets south of Byron. The E/NE swell has built a little more slowly than expected, but reached 2-3ft yesterday afternoon and much of today with surf size now starting to muscle up a little more. Winds have been light in the mornings in most areas with afternoon sea breezes in parts. 

This week (Nov 22nd - 25th)

Essentially, the E/NE swell from the Coral Sea trough/depression has been pushed back a half to one day or so.

Which means we’re looking at a Wednesday morning peak across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with late Wednesday seeing a slightly smaller peak from this source across the Mid North Coast. 

There’s no change to the size outlook; exposed beaches should see building surf through Tuesday, peaking at a solid 5-6ft at the height of the swell on Wednesday from the Sunshine Coast down to about Ballina or Yamba. South from Coffs we’re looking at a slightly smaller peak around 4-5ft+, owing to the alignment of the fetch which will be mainly focused into SE Qld.

As for local winds, the predominantly E’ly pattern of the last few days will swing S/SE on Wednesday (maybe even a brief window of light SW winds in a few spots) as the trough drops south of our latitude. So expect similar conditions on Tuesday as per this afternoon, with the peak of the swell coinciding with excellent conditions for the regional points. 

This swell event will then ease steadily through the rest of the week. 

Also in the water on Tuesday across Northern NSW’s south facing beaches (south of Byron) is another pulse of S’ly groundswell - this time a little more S/SE in reaction - originating from a secondary fetch around the bottom of the same Southern Ocean low that generated yesterday’s pulse. This new energy reached Sydney around lunchtime today with inconsistent 3ft+ sets and a similar size range is expected through Tuesday south of Byron.

As for the second half of the week - we have a couple of sources of new swell.

First up - a modest, stationary fetch of trades S/SE of Fiji will maintain small E’ly swell in the mix, right through the weekend too. No great size is expected but in the event our other swell windows dry up (which is unlikely) it’ll keep exposed beaches from becoming flat. 

A stalled trough across Southern NSW on Wednesday is expected to form a surface low in the Central/Southern Tasman Sea, driving southerly gales along the NSW coast and generating a solid south swell for Thursday. 

Initially, we’ll see building short range energy that will only favour south swell magnets into the afternoon - but they’ll be blown out by the accompanying wind (however, southern corners will be clean, and they’ll also pick up some the leftover, easing E/NE swell). We can expect early 3-4ft sets across most coasts early on Thursday morning - including SE Qld - before it drops to 2-3ft throughout the day. The points will offer the best conditions under these gusty conditions though dawn session should see light SW winds north of the border prior to the arrival of the change.

The afternoon’s swell increase will precede a better, longer period S’ly groundswell building throughout Friday, peaking into the late afternoon, originating form the parent Tasman low. This should provide 4-5ft sets at south facing beaches by the end of the day (south of Byron) though the morning may see a smaller period between swells. 

Friday's S/SE swell will be considerably smaller across SE Qld and we’ll also have some small leftover E/NE swell in the mix, probably a couple of feet at exposed beaches to keep surfers occupied for the last day of the working week. Expect early light SW winds tending moderate S/SE throughout the day at most coasts. 

This weekend (Nov 26th - 27th)

Friday’s mix of southerly swells will ease into Saturday, and winds are expected to return back to the north.

Early morning should see light NW winds and with some luck there’ll still be the odd 3-4ft+ set in the Far North (smaller south of Coffs as it’ll be drying up from here). Easing size is expected throughout the day though a small new S’ly swell - originating from a front pushing through the lower Tasman Sea on Friday - will probably arrest the easing trend and keep south facing beaches south of Byron around 3ft into the afternoon. 

A small mix of E’ly and S/SE swells will probably hover around the 2ft mark at most SE Qld beaches on Saturday, with early light winds and sea breezes. 

On Sunday, a stronger southerly swell originating from the parent low to Friday’s front through the lower Tasman Sea will push up the coast, peaking late in the day and into Monday. Based on current model guidance we should be looking at solid 5-6ft sets at south swell magnets south of Byron, but it’s still along time away and will require close scrutiny over the coming days. The good news is that a shallow S’ly change is expected to push up the coast concurrently and should favour the semi-exposed points for clean conditions.

SE Qld won’t pick up anywhere near as much size from this south swell but there should be good late 3ft+ sets at reliable south swell magnets, right on dark. The outer points will be very, very small from this source with extremely inconsistent 1-2ft runners however the aforementioned distant E’ly swell should keep the open beaches more consistent with a similarly small trade energy. 

Next week (Nov 28th onwards)

Looks like more Southern Ocean activity will continue through next week, maintaining plenty of strong southerly swell across Northern NSW for the foreseeable future.

See you Wednesday!