A great extended surf outlook for Queensland... finally!

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 18th October)

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Best DaysSun: building trade swell in SE Qld and a building S'ly swell in Northern NSW. Mon/Tues/Wed/Thurs: strong E/NE swell across all coasts, reaching a peak from late from late Tues (in the north) thru' late Wed (in the south).

Recap: Building southerly swells through Thursday reached a peak overnight before easing slowly through today. Exposed south swell magnets in SE Qld reached 2-3ft, with 4-5ft+ sets across Northern NSW. 


The south swell is easing quickly across Northern NSW, as per our Gallows surfcam at Coffs Harbour

This weekend (Nov 19th - 20th)

We’ve got an interesting combo of swells ahead for the weekend.

First off - the current southerly swell has eased rapidly across Southern NSW overnight, so we can expect this trend to continue this afternoon, overnight and further into Saturday with very little surf expected even at south swell magnets south of Byron. Across SE Qld there won’t be much leftover at all.

However we do have some new swell on the way. A ridge across the Queensland coast and a deepening trough NNW of New Caledonia will strengthen E/SE winds through the Coral Sea, building trade swells for SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. 

Surf size will be largest in the far northern coasts (i.e. Sunshine Coast) reaching 3ft+ by Sunday afternoon (smaller through Saturday, though with a slow upwards trend), with the Gold and Tweed Coasts reaching 2-3ft+. Expect smaller surf at protected locations. South of Ballina we’ll also see smaller surf size from this source, with very little new energy across the Mid North Coast likely until early next week.

As for local conditions, we are expecting mainly moderate onshore winds both days though there should be periods of lighter, possibly variable conditions around dawn. So it won’t be perfect, but who cares! It’s been a while between drinks and east swells are welcome in any shape or format in this neck of the woods. 

South of Byron, a new long period S’ly groundswell will build throughout Sunday, generated by a very deep Southern Ocean low tracking well south of Tasmania. The models have moved around on this quite a bit over the week; downgrading slightly between Monday and Wednesday but the latest guidance looks a little more promising with a better fetch position, and I’m now a little more confident that we’ll see some decent sets across the region.

Starting from a small base early morning, surf size will build steadily from mid-morning onwards, reaching a peak late afternoon across all coasts (though there will be a delay across the Far North Coast). Set waves should reach 3-4ft by the end of the day, in fact the latest ASCAT pass from today is showing some incredible winds speeds of 50-55kts that could result in a few bigger bombs at times. But I’d rather peg back the projected surf size on this event and be pleasantly surprised if it exceeds expectations.  

For what its worth, these estimates are around double what our surf model is estimating (2ft for south facing beaches in Coffs Harbour). I’ve previously discussed how the global swell model (which produces the initial swell predictions which our surf model is based on) doesn’t pick up these kinds of southerly swells very well so I’m expecting the surf to push up quite a bit above these modelled heights. 

The only fly in the ointment is a freshening northerly breeze that will dominate much of the Northern NSW on Saturday (with little surf south of Byron anyway) and Sunday (with the building south swell). So sheltered northern corners will be your best option. Early mornings may see slightly lighter, more NW winds and winds should also be lighter somewhere between Yamba and Byron (between the Qld ridge and a second ridge across the NSW coast) but in general there’ll be a northerly wobble through the lineup both days. 

Next week (Nov 21st onwards)

The Southern Ocean low responsible for Sunday’s building S’ly swell will move slowly through our swell window, and a number of individual fetches will spin up around the low, each contributing new long range swell from the southern quadrant early next week.

As such, Monday is looking at a continuation of long period, inconsistent south swell across south facing beaches in Northern NSW, with occasional sets in the 3-4ft range. Surf size will ease slowly during Tuesday.

Mainly N’ly winds are expected south of Ballina on Monday and Tuesday, though we should see brief periods of lighter, more variable winds in the early morning

At the same time, the Coral Sea trough will have slid southwards, developing an impressive easterly fetch between the mainland and New Caledonia. This fetch is expected to reach maturity around Monday but will weaken only slowly as it continues south of Byron latitudes into Tuesday and Wednesday. 

As such, we’re looking at an extended run of east swell, and it’ll eventually favour all coastlines. 

Picking up where we left from late Sunday, the east swell will continue an upwards trend through Monday and Tuesday across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, reaching a peak into the afternoon or maybe even Wednesday morning before easing back in size throughout the second half of the week

The Mid North Coast will see a later peak thanks to the slow southward track of the fetch, so late Wednesday should see maximum surf size across this coast, with plenty of surf holding through Thursday too. 

Wave heights are likely to reach 4-6ft at exposed beaches in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with smaller surf at protected locations and points. We may not quite see the upper end of this size range across the Mid North Coast though it probably won’t be too far off.

I wouldn't be surprised if the odd larger bomb is reported across some swell magnets north of the border too, as the sustained nature of this fetch tips the balance in favour of an overachieving swell event. If nothing else, set waves will be very consistent through the upwards phase of the swell (Mon/Tues) which is ideal for the regional points. 

As for winds - for the most part conditions look pretty good with mainly moderate E/SE winds north from Byron through Monday and Tuesday with periods of lighter winds in the mornings at a few locations. Again, not perfect but a lot better than the northerly episodes that have accompanied some recent swells. 

As the trough drops to the south, winds will go variable in its wake - this is likely to be on Wednesday (be wary of afternoon sea breezes though). A building ridge across the NSW coast on Thursday will then drive southerly winds across all areas, along with a fresh short range south swell. 

Looking further ahead and another series of Southern Ocean fronts are expected to bring more south swell for next weekend, and a modest but near stationary ridge NE of New Zealand should supply some small concurrent east swell as well into the longer term period. Let’s take a closer look at all of that on Monday.

Have a great weekend! 

Comments

curly2alex's picture
curly2alex's picture
curly2alex Friday, 18 Nov 2016 at 4:39pm

tickets please........

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 18 Nov 2016 at 8:28pm

tell you what, that Southerly groundswell kicked hard again this arvo here....tried to rockfish an exposed ledge and got quite a shock. Strong lines at the S swell magnets, but N'lies were into it.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Saturday, 19 Nov 2016 at 3:32pm

Swell was still really pulsing from the south this morning from dawn until 8.30-9.ish in ballina. Then it pretty much halved in size.
Not sure where the reporter wrote his report from.

rj-davey's picture
rj-davey's picture
rj-davey Saturday, 19 Nov 2016 at 8:25pm

Beachies on the Goldy were fun this morning. Nice to finally feel a little push in the waves. I was curious about the report here also, but while its in my favour who cares

le-renard's picture
le-renard's picture
le-renard Sunday, 20 Nov 2016 at 10:16pm

Shoots, BOM's got that low getting kinda intense. Is this going to end up a bank-buster? (for GC)). Wasn't much out there this morning though...who knows (well...you guys? :) )

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 21 Nov 2016 at 6:04am

Yeah this E/NE swell hasn't built as fast as anticipated. However there's no major downgrade to the broader forecast for the next few days... if anything the entire cycle looks like it's been pushed back a day (so, peaking Wednesday in SE Qld). 

The S'ly groundswell looked nice across the Coffs Coast yesterday afternoon with solid 3ft+ sets late. Seems to be a little inconsistent this morning. Here's a set from Gallows.. pushing overhead.

Umunga's picture
Umunga's picture
Umunga Monday, 21 Nov 2016 at 8:15am

Maybe a good thing it's running a day late coz the onshore is relentless on the SC at the more, killing it!!!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 21 Nov 2016 at 8:19am

Winds were light and conditions were clean all day yesty on the Tweed.. just a stunning day weather wise. There was always a risk of the onshores across the SC (which is more prone under these patterns) but winds should go more SE, maybe even S'ly as the swell peaks. So hang in there!

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 21 Nov 2016 at 8:52am

light winds down here yesty, no sign of that S swell but there was some nice babyfood out of the ENE

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 21 Nov 2016 at 9:16am

Interesting swell propagation times across the NSW coast yesterday.

The leading edge of the S'ly groundswell (17.4 seconds) arrived at the Sydney buoy at 3am Sunday morning.

There's roughly 450km between Sydney to Coffs as the crow flies (well offshore). Swell energy at 17.4 seconds is travelling at about 48km/hr, so it should have been about 9 hours to Coffs Harbour.

The Coffs buoy picked up the forerunners at 17.4 seconds around 11am - an hour earlier than these calcs would suggest (though, the data is somewhat give or take an hour given to the sample size and display frequency - so, close enough IMO). I took a look at the Gallows surfcam at Coffs around 2-3pm and it was showing some healthy 3ft sets (for reference, Sydney peaked a solid 4ft+ through the afternoon from this south swell, bigger across the Hunter).

It's then another 170km from Coffs to Ballina (3.5hr travel time), which meant that this swell should have then reached the Byron Buoy between 2pm and 3pm.

However, the Byron buoy didn't pick up the forerunners until 9pm - some 6-7 hours late. And the leading edge was only 16 seconds, which means that the initial 17.4 second forerunners must have bypassed the coast - or must have been very faint and therefore weren't detected under the small NE windswell resulting from the 15-18kt NE breeze recorded at Cape Byron through the afternoon.

I had dinner at the beach last night on the Tweed and couldn't see much of the S'ly swell (looked all E/NE to me) so I suspect the 17 second forerunners recorded in Sydney and Coffs didn't reach the Far North Coast. 

Even this morning, the Tweed Coast seemed to be picking up mainly E/NE swell in the 2-3ft range, though I didn't wait around very long and the S'ly swell was expected to be quite inconsistent. So perhaps I wasn't patient enough.

curly2alex's picture
curly2alex's picture
curly2alex Monday, 21 Nov 2016 at 9:42am

Hey thermalben,
Just for laughs when you are down the beach checking the surf and some dude comes up and asks "what's it like" do you ever go into a full depth analysis ?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 21 Nov 2016 at 9:48am

Ha! Nah I try to keep it simple. 

Most of the complex stuff is really for the purposes of hindcasting/analysis (and discussion amongst like-minded people); most crew usually just want to know when the bloody waves are going to arrive. 

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 21 Nov 2016 at 9:47am

very small S swell signal here this morning.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 21 Nov 2016 at 10:39am

been a while since I've looked at ASCAT.

nice fetch inside Grand Terre.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Monday, 21 Nov 2016 at 12:26pm

You talking about this one Steve?

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_META/zooms/WMBa...

Shame it's been dissected. Fetch also appears to be aimed away from us somewhat don't you think?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 21 Nov 2016 at 12:32pm

Yes, the wind alignment isn't perfect but I think the breadth of it and it's movement into the swell window are sufficient mitigating factors.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Monday, 21 Nov 2016 at 12:57pm

Agree with the westward retrograde due to happen today/tonight.

On a side note, EC has a very nice fetch lined up for west coast NZ, Fiji etc next week!!!

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Monday, 21 Nov 2016 at 5:47pm

Stinky pile of coral jizz so far :-/