South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 7th October)

Best Days: Tues: possible early window of S'ly swell and NW winds at south facing beaches in Northern NSW. Wed/Thurs: small N'ly windswell but local winds will wreck conditions. Thurs: possible window of small N'ly windswell with winds veering NW (in the north) and SW (in the south). Sun: small peaky swells with offshore winds. Mon/Tues: strong S'ly swell for Northern NSW. 

Recap: SE Qld remained tiny all weekend but a building southerly swell provided great waves across Northern NSW on Sunday, reaching 4-5ft at exposed spots. This south swell eased back to 4ft this morning with light offshore winds, but there’s still plenty of additional south swell on the way, as southern NSW managed 4-6ft surf throughout today (this is translating to a small increase this afternoon, with 4-5ft sets now showing at south swell magnets, as per the Coffs surfcam grab below). However wave heights are now easing across Southern NSW so this downwards trend will kick in across Northern NSW on Tuesday. Northerly winds are also strengthening across the coast.

Strong pulse of S'ly swell again this afternoon at Coffs Harbour

This week (Nov 8th - 11th)

Despite Tuesday morning likely to see plenty of south swell across south facing beaches in northern NSW, freshening northerly winds will probably restrict surfable options to sheltered northern corners across Northern NSW. Early morning could still offer 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches ahead of a further easing trend during the day to around 2ft (confidence isn’t high on the size or timing of this easing trend). There's a chance for an early period of NW winds but I doubt it'll last long.

SE Qld won’t see much, if any south swell from this source so small wind affected conditions are expected for the next few days.

These freshening N’ly winds will generate some NE windswell for the coast, initially not a great deal of size through Tuesday but even stronger northerlies throughout the day should result in some 3ft+ sets about exposed north facing beaches across the Mid North Coast into Wednesday and Thursday. Smaller surf is expected across the Far North NSW and SE Qld coasts through Tuesday and Wednesday but Thursday has some interesting potential which I’ll get to in a moment.

The strengthening northerlies will be related to a weakening trough of low pressure advancing northwards across Southern NSW on Tuesday. It’s expected to stall just of the Lower Mid North Coast into Wednesday but a small SE fetch off its southerly flank won’t be much of a swell producer for the East Coast, let along Northern NSW and SE Qld.  We may see brief periods of morning NW winds but in general the flow will be gusty out of the north. 

On Thursday, the trough off the Lower Mid North Coast will probably consolidate into a Tasman Low and then track SE away form the mainland. Just prior to this - on Wednesday night - N’ly winds will strengthen off the SE Qld and Far Northern NSW coast, before tending NW across SE Qld and SW across the Mid North Coast (and variable between the two, ahead of a mild southerly change during the day). 

This offers a potential window of peaky NE swell with reasonably favourable winds for some coasts. I’m not overly confident on this scenario right now as the system is modelled to be very close to the mainland (so, small changes in its position or strength could drastically alter size potential) but there’s a chance for 2-3ft sets at some reliable NE swell magnets. Let’s take a look and see how the models are handling things on Wednesday.

Otherwise, Friday will see small residual swells and mainly light winds and sea breezes to finish the week.

This weekend (Nov 12th - 13th)

Saturday looks pretty average once again with a return to northerly winds about all coasts. 

The coastal trough from earlier in the week - developing into a Tasman Low on Friday - is expected to develop a strong southerly fetch about its western flank however it’ll be poorly aimed for our coast and will also be tracking eastwards, perpendicular to our swell window. So, we’re likely to see a small south swell glance the coast over the weekend but I fear we won’t see much more than a very inconsistent 1-2ft+ at exposed south swell magnets in Northern NSW. 

Otherwise, a NW tending W’ly change will kick in across most coasts on Sunday, providing clean conditions ahead of the afternoon sea breeze. Aside from the low confidence south swell, we’re looking at only a small N’ly windswell across exposed north facing beaches, mainly in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. At this stage 1-2ft sets are possible but I’ll review the data in more detail on Wednesday.

Next week (Nov 14th onwards)

We’ve got lots of south swell on the way for early next week.

On Saturday evening, a developing SW fetch existing eastern Bass Strait will kick up a solid S’ly swell for south facing beaches in Northern NSW on Monday. A stalled low developing just NE of Tasmania shortly after will kick up a second, stronger swell though it’s early stages and we may see these fetches consolidated over the coming days. 

Either way, the outlook is for more south swell for Monday and Tuesday, potentially as high as 4-5ft+ across south facing beaches south of Byron, but with very little swell expected to reach SE Qld due to the poor orientation and alignment. 

Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.