South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 31st October)

Best Days: Thurs: fun south swell across Northern NSW early morning. Sun, Mon, Tues, Wed: strong series of south swells with good winds early.

Recap: Tuesday delivered a fun building south swell at south facing beaches in Northern NSW, with sets reaching 3ft through the afternoon. SE Qld remained tiny though it picked up a very small, distant, infrequent E’ly swell from a low that formed way out near Tahiti last week: this swell was touched on in Monday's notes, but discussed in more detail in the comments section). Today we’ve seen easing S’ly swell across Northern NSW and tiny residual E’ly swell across SE Qld, however a small unexpected S’ly groundswell has started to show across the Lower Mid North Coast this afternoon having arrived across Southern NSW overnight and produced great waves in Sydney and surrounds today. Without going into too much detail (it was comprehensively detailed in the comments section of Monday’s Sydney Forecaster Notes), the wave models completely missed this system, and it was dismissed as a source (by yours truly) on Monday because the low was contained within a broad zonal flow, and the low itself was travelling NW-SE, perpendicular to the swell window, at great speed, which reduced its theoretical potential. Unfortunately, it seems a brief but intense period within our acute southerly swell window was just enough to generate an impressive flush of southerly groundswell. Set waves seem to be in the 2-3ft range via the Coffs surfcam (see below) and this swell should reach the Far North Coast overnight.

Building S'ly swell at Coffs Harbour this afternoon

This week (Nov 3rd - 4th)

So, a couple of curveballs already this week. And it’s resulted in an upgrade for Thursday across Northern NSW (though only the morning). 

Today's small south swell is producing 2-3ft sets at Coffs Harbour this afternoon, and it should reach the rest of the Northern NSW coast overnight before trending down into Thursday. South facing beaches should pick up occasional 2-3ft sets early but it’ll start easing during the morning - a little sooner south from Coffs, but lingering a little longer across the Far North Coast. Early light winds will keep conditions clean ahead of a NE sea breeze. Don't expect much at beaches not open the south.

Across SE Qld, we won’t see much of this south swell and the tiny modelled E’ly swell (0.5m at 10.5 seconds) should just keep the open beaches rideable every twenty or thirty minutes with a slow line of surf for beginners, maybe 1-2ft tops. But there will be long breaks of flat conditions between.

Friday will see a small mix of south swell across Northern NSW; minor residual energy from Thursday and a small new south swell from a poorly aligned front pushing eastwards through the lower Tasman Sea today. No great size is expected so I’d be surprised if we saw any more than an inconsistent 1ft to maybe 1-2ft at south swell magnets. Winds will freshen from the north during the day resulting in limited options away from northern corners. 

SE Qld won’t fare very well on Friday owing to the northerly breeze and small surf size, but northern ends may offer a small weak line of residual E’ly swell similar to Thursday. Certainly nothing worth working around but if you’re desperate for a paddle there’s an outside chance for a few little shore breaks. 

This weekend (Nov 5th - 6th)

Freshening northerly winds and tiny wave heights on Saturday will wipe out surf prospects across all coasts. 

Sunday has a little more promise. A gusty overnight S’ly change will whip up some low quality S’ly windswell for south facing beaches in Northern NSW, but the initial fetch length doesn’t look like it’ll be strong, long or broad enough to generate any meaningful energy for the dawn patrol.

However, a stronger front associated with this system (and a parent low below Tasmania) will generate a longer period south swell that’s expected to move across the Mid North Coast in the morning, reaching the Far North Coast in the afternoon, producing 4-5ft+ sets at south facing beaches by the end of the day. I’m not 100% on the timing at this stage but on the balance, current indications are for an afternoon peak.

Early light winds will precede light to moderate NE sea breezes. There'll be smaller waves at beaches not open to the south but obviously these locations may be more susceptible to the afternoon's northerly breezes. 

Sunday's fresh south swell won’t be ideally aligned for SE Qld but exposed northern ends and reliable south swell magnets may pick up a few stray 2-3ft sets right on dark - however most beaches and outer points will remain very small throughout, and even exposed locations will be small for at least the first half of the day.

Next week (Nov 7th onwards)

Two swell sources will contribute strong southerly swell for the Northern NSW coast on Monday.

Firstly, the parent low to the weekend's frontal progression will round the Tasmanian corner on Sunday, generating a long period but smaller swell for the start of the new week. In addition to this, a vigorous secondary front exiting eastern Bass Strait late Sunday is expected to push up quite a bit of size throughout Monday; the combined energy should reach 4-6ft at south facing beaches south of Byron Bay by late afternoon, with smaller surf at beaches not open to the south. 

There however may be a slight dip in surf size early morning between Sunday’s swell and the arrival of the new energy, mainly in the morning and in general across the Far North Coast.

SE Qld should see some small peelers across the outer points later Monday with inconsistent sets in the 1-2ft range, and exposed northern ends and reliable south swell magnets should see bigger waves up to 2-3ft+ right on dark. There is a concern that winds will freshen from the north during the day but there’ll certainly be some waves around if you're keen.

These southerly swells will then slowly ease through Tuesday and into Wednesday morning as N/NW winds strengthen across the region ahead of a shallow S’ly change with a surface trough pushing slowly across Northern NSW through Wednesday.

Another vigorous front is expected to push through the same region of our swell window on Tuesday, generating a strong S’ly swell for later Wednesday that could reach 4-6ft at south facing beaches south of Byron, though confidence is not high on this event right now. 

All in all - we’ve got an active period ahead from our south swell window, but we’ll need to refine the particulars on Friday as the close proximity of these systems to the mainland means that small changes in their position can have a drastic impact on the projected surf size.