South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 29th October)

Best Days: Tues: small building S'ly swell across Northern NSW though winds look tricky. Sun/Mon: solid S'ly swell in Northern NSW with good winds for the semi-exposed points. Not much in SE Qld. 

Recap: Wasn’t much surf over the weekend due to unfavourable winds and mainly small swells, though this morning’s S’ly change improved the small NE swell across the Mid North Coast before it eased throughout the day. The Lower Mid North Coast should be seeing a small southerly groundswell build beneath the windswell this afternoon.

This week (Nov 1st - 4th)

A southerly swell is building across Southern NSW this afternoon, and it’s expected to reach most Northern NSW locations overnight and into Tuesday morning. It was generated by a vigorous front that crossed the Tasmanian region overnight, and is responsible for the southerly wind change seen up as far as Coffs Harbour this afternoon (locations north from Yamba are still under a N’ly breeze).

However, the change is expected to stall just south of the border overnight, resulting in a wide variation in winds across the coast on Tuesday - moderate E’lies south of the trough (probably from Ballina south), but then variable across the Mid North Coast; variable in and around the trough (Byron to the Gold Coast) and then some form of dissipating northerly breeze across the Sunshine Coast. 

Tuesday’s waves will therefore probably be pretty average in quality. A small N’ly windswell across SE Qld beaches won’t have a lot of size, and the small south swell won’t reach here either. Winds also look tricky across the Sunny Coast too.

South of the border, we’ll see some 2-3ft sets at south swell magnets but there is a threat of poor winds in many regions (less so across the Mid North Coast). Keep your expectations low and you may pick up a few little beaches, there’s certainly a chance for periods of light variable winds in a few regions but it’s not worth a day off work. 

Note: models have this small new S'ly swell reaching the Far North Coast around mid-late morning, so don’t be surprised if there’s not a lot of action in the water at dawn (north of Yamba). I’ll update in the comments below as more data comes to hand.

Tuesday’s weak trough may generate some small short range windswell for Northern NSW into the afternoon and early Wednesday, but otherwise there are no other swell sources for the rest of the week.

The models have altered the projected storm track for a front crossing Tasmania on Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday: it’s now expected to be quite zonal (west-west) in alignment, which is bad news for surfers in NSW as it’s unlikely that we’ll see much, if any swell energy bend back into the coast. 

The very tail end of the fetch - across the lower Tasman Sea on Wednesday morning - may provide a small pulse of south swell but it won’t arrive until Thursday, and even then we’ll probably be looking at a couple of inconsistent feet at south swell magnets at best, and nothing elsewhere.

Very small surf and freshening northerly winds will round out the week on Friday.

Interestingly, the models are picking up couple of feet of mid-period (11-12 second) E/SE swell all week across SE Qld and Northern NSW coasts. I’m not sure if this is originating from a long range system (way out in the South Pacific) last week that’s flown under my radar, but with limited time this afternoon I can’t quite deduce where it may be sourced from. In any case it’s unlikely that this modeled swell - even if it made landfall - would contribute much quality to the coast, but in the absence of any major event it’s always worth keeping an eye out for small flukey sources, and this ticks a few of those boxes (though, the small E’ly swell expected last Fri/Sat didn’t amount to much, and it was sourced from a reasonable system located closer to the mainland). I’ll do a little more digging tonight to see if there’s something I missed in last week’s analyses. 

This weekend (Nov 5th - 6th)

Saturday looks terrible with freshening N’ly winds and little to no new swell of any substance, maybe some local quality windswell at best.

Sunday looks much different though. A strong front entering the lower Tasman Sea on Saturday will kick up a strong southerly swell that will build all day Sunday across Northern NSW and should push up into the 4-6ft range at south facing beaches by the afternoon. The good news is that fresh S/SW winds will accompany the swell, so semi-exposed points in Northern NSW should offer some good waves. Expect smaller surf at beaches not completely open to the south though.

It’s unlikely that we’ll see much size refract into SE Qld but there should be some very small lines at the outer Gold Coast points, and exposed northern ends should also see some small waves but they’ll be wind affected.

Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday to see if the models are holding steady. 

Next week (Nov 7th onwards)

Sunday’s south swell will be associated with a strong, anchored frontal progression through the lower Tasman. Additionally, the parent low to this progression will round the Tasmanian corner on Sunday, and in doing so will contribute slightly smaller sized but slightly longer period S’ly swell early next week. 

This should maintain strong south swell into Monday of a similar size to late Sunday (across Northern NSW), before easing during the afternoon and then more steadily into Tuesday.

I am doubtful that SE Qld will pick up anything worthwhile from this south swell, because swells from this neck of the woods are just too acute in direction to maintain enough size as they round Cape Byron and then Point Danger (and then Moreton Island). 

There’s a threat that early next week will see a return to northerly winds, but that’s a long time away so let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.