South-east Queensland and Northern NSW  Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 28th October)

Best Days: Mon: very brief early window of peaky NE swell and developing W'ly tending S'ly winds, with a small window across the Mid North Coast (not much elsewhere). Tues: Small S'ly swell in Northern NSW with light winds (not much in SE Qld). Thurs: Small S'ly swell in Northern NSW with light winds (not much in SE Qld).

Recap: Small weak swells with nothing really of interest. A small south swell has built across Northern NSW this afternoon but it’s not producing any notable surf.

Small south swell building across the Coffs Coast this afternoon

This weekend (Oct 29th - 30th)

There’s been an ever-so-slight upgrade in the forecast for Saturday morning, for Northern NSW’s south facing beaches. 

Today, a small southerly swell across Southern NSW punched a little higher than estimated, and it’s now just starting to show across the Mid North coast. It’s unlikely we’ll see anything amazing but south swell magnets south of Byron may see some early 2ft sets before wave heights ease throughout the day.

It's a low confidence event but with such an ordinary outlook period, every small window of opportunity has to be scrutinised. 

Most beaches will however be much smaller, and SE Qld won’t pick up any of this south swell so we can expect another day of tiny waves across the Gold and Sunshine Coasts. 

Under this local troughy pattern winds should be light and variable in the morning, before NE breezes develop into the afternoon.

Sunday looks very unimpressive with tiny residual groundswell and freshening N/NE winds that should become quite strong through the afternoon across the Mid North Coast. We’ll see a subsequent increase in short range windswell (maybe some 3-4ft sets in the far south very late afternoon) but it’ll be smaller north of Port Mac or Coffs Harbour and local conditions won’t lend themselves to any great surf anyway.

Next week (Oct 31st onwards)

An approaching front for the start of next week has changed its forecast dynamics in the latest model runs. We’re now looking at all-day northerlies across SE Qld on Monday, but with very little swell around anyway there’s nothing to get too concerned about. 

Sunday’s late NE windswell across the Mid North Coast will persist overnight but then ease throughout Monday, and early NW tending W’ly winds will swing moderate to fresh S’ly during the day.

It now looks like this southerly change will peter out near Coffs or Yamba early afternoon, so the best we can hope for is a brief window of peaky beach breaks across the Lower Mid North Coast on Monday morning as the NE swell eases. 2-3ft sets at NE facing beaches from Coffs Harbour to Seal Rocks looks about the best we can hope for in the morning (smaller surf is expected after lunch), with very small weak surf north to the border. 

A brief flush of south swell will trail Monday’s change, and should provide south facing beaches in Northern NSW with fun 2-3ft waves on Tuesday. Current expectations are that a trough will linger across the coast, which could maintain northerly winds across SE Qld and easterly winds south of the trough line (say, around Coffs or Yamba) but let’s wait and see how Monday’s model runs are looking. 

Smaller surf will then prevail on Wednesday, possibly with some short range E’ly swell from the immediate fetch just off the coast. Nothing great is likely though, and this small swell probably won’t be aimed into SE Qld (so expect tiny conditions to persist here).

Another reasonably strong front through the lower Tasman Sea on Wednesday will renew S’ly swell for south facing beaches on Thursday (ballpark 3-4ft) but it’s too early to have confidence in local conditions. 

Otherwise, there are no other major systems standing out in the long range. Have a great weekend and we’ll catch up Monday with the latest for the long term period.