South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 24th October)

Best Days: Fri PM/Sat: chance for a very small E'ly swell in SE Qld. Keep your expectations low. Mon: brief NE windswell in Northern NSW with winds tending offshore (not much in SE Qld). Tues: building S'ly swell across Northern NSW (not much in SE Qld). 

Recap: Tuesday played out as expected, with a large south swell generating 6-8ft sets across Northern NSW, and smaller surf elsewhere. Most Gold Coast beaches and outer points managed inconsistent 3ft surf with bigger 4ft+ sets at the exposed northern end of the coast, however the Sunshine Coast dipped out overall, with slightly smaller surf peaking (as expected) around the same time the nor’east sea breeze developed. Wave heights eased rapidly overnight, in fact there’s been hardly any signs of the south swell across SE Qld today. South facing beaches in Northern NSW managed 4-5ft sets south of Byron this morning, but it’s been smaller elsewhere with a downwards trend throughout the day. In fact exposed north facing spots across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW have picked up a small NE windswell this afternoon.

Small NE windswell at Snapper Rocks this afternoon (four waves peeling into Rainbow Bay!)

This week (Oct 27th - 28th)

We’ve got an extended period of poor surf ahead for SE Qld and Northern NSW.

With no new swell sources developing in the last 48 hours, and nothing significant expected on the synoptic charts in the short term, we’re looking at tiny residual swells across all coasts for quite a few days. 

Thursday may see a few trailing southerly sets south of Byron Bay, but I’d be surprised if there was much more than a handful of inconsistent 2ft, maybe 2-3ft bombs early morning at reliable swell magnets, before it completely peters out by lunchtime. Elsewhere it’ll be almost flat. 

This afternoon's minor NE windswell across the Gold and Tweed Coasts won’t amount to much, but if you’re desperate there may be a foot or two of weak surf early morning. It’s unlikely that anywhere else will pick up much windswell from this source. 

Thursday’s winds will freshen from the N/NW ahead of a shallow overnight S’ly change across the Mid North Coast that may just nose into the Far North Coast by early Friday morning. However it’s expected to weaken rapidly during Friday morning leaving most coasts north of Yamba with light variable winds and sea breezes, and a possible lingering SE breeze south from Coffs, tending variable during the day. 

A minor south swell may build across Northern NSW’s south facing beaches during the day (occasional 2ft sets), originating to the parent fetch pushing through the southern Tasman Sea early Thursday, but it probably won’t result in any great surf. 

There’s one other source of swell for Friday, but only for SE Qld: a small inconsistent E’ly swell, originating from a broad low positioned NE of New Zealand last weekend. As per Wednesday’s notes, it wasn’t especially strong and was mainly located in the swell shadow of NZ’s North Island, but it looks like it was positioned just north enough to allow for some small swell energy to reach the Sunshine Coast and (hopefully) the Gold Coast. 

The models have shunted back the timing of this swell, it’s now expected to build slowly through Friday, peaking late afternoon or perhaps overnight into Saturday. However I’d be surprised if we saw much more than a stray 2ft set at exposed swell magnets north from the Tweed Coast (keep in mind it'll be smaller early morning). Expect smaller surf south of Byron, with very little showing up south of Ballina. 

This weekend (Oct 29th - 30th)

The weekend is essentially a write-off.

Only Saturday morning has any potential, and only across SE Qld.

Whatever small long range east swell makes it ashore late Friday, we should see persist into Saturday morning with light variable winds ahead of an afternoon see breeze. At this stage we’re looking at very inconsistent 2ft sets at exposed beaches, but with lengthy breaks of completely flat conditions between waves. Size will also ease during the day.

Elsewhere, surf conditions will be tiny.

On Sunday, the poor surf outlook will continue, compounded by strengthening northerly winds. They should generate some N’ly windswell for Northern NSW (and maybe the southern Gold Coast) but it’s not worth working around due to the unfavourable winds.

Next week (Oct 31st onwards)

Monday has some potential with a strong front sweeping across Southern NSW, bringing a SW tending S’ly wind change. It’ll affect the Mid North Coast first but with peaky NE windswell on offer (3ft+ across the Mid North Coast, 2-3ft across the Far North Coast and 1.5ft across SE Qld) there is hope for a brief window of peaky beach breaks. 

I wouldn’t plan anything around this right now though, these systems are pretty flukey and the window could easily close over the coming model run updates. 

Otherwise, south-west gales behind Monday’s change will build a fresh south swell for very late Monday (Lower Mid North Coast), peaking on Tuesday across Northern NSW with sets around 3-4ft+ at south facing beaches. Winds should be light offshore for Tuesday's surf as the front clears east into the Tasman Sea, which is promising for some good waves.

Looking further ahead and more fronts are expected to push through the lower Tasman Sea through the middle of the week which suggests Thursday and Friday will see a renewal of strong southerly swells across the coast. 

More on this in Friday’s update!